Warning- for when you up the pace.

[bogan]

Depends entirely on the system. Using mashman's "windowing" of things that could happen, 50-50 is no impossible.
Tis the great contrast of 'probability' and 'possibility'

true, i spose what I'm saying is you can't just window out shit to get the numbers you want (unless you are nick smith apparently)

WTF? They must have magical fire and forget heat sinking Ground To Aprillia nail missiles where you live

Stop pulling numbers out of your arse, it makes you look like a muppet.

yeh that about sums it up

[avgas]

The word 'accident' is defined by the word 'unintentional' - not by the word 'unavoidable'.
As MSTRS has pointed out, there are very few accidents that are unavoidable.

A wise person said to me once. There are no accidents, just failures to understand the potential of failing.
Seems we are content with a small percentage of failure - and that is what makes us human.

[Quasievil]

Good thread.........well it was before semantics stepped in

[bogan]

Yes, it is right. At least as I put it...
Like your coin toss....if you flip it twice, there is an equal chance of either side coming up once.
I never said it was likely tho

ok now I see what you mean i think, if the sampling is based on events chosen to skew the data then yeh, you can get a 50-50 chance. I'd be hanging up my helmet if those were my chances though!

[avgas]

true, i spose what I'm saying is you can't just window out shit to get the numbers you want (unless you are nick smith apparently)

Exactly - stats / figures / facts / possibilities / probabilities..... all need to be considered separate entities. To join them can get you looking in the wrong direction.
e.g.

Probability of 50% decrease in wild cats in Auckland
Possibility of 10% increase in asian takeaways in Auckland
Cats have 2 kittens a year

can these quotes be combined. Ask Nick

[mashman]

If the nail took up half the road and had spikes all over it, I'd almost agree with you. But they don't, on both accounts. So the chances of hitting that nail are far less then 50-50, taking into account it's actual size in relation to the road, it's actual ability to puncture your tyre, and any avoidance measures you employ, I'd wager the chances of coming off in that corner as being .000001-99.999999.

Thems is spiker strips For me, you're talking about the probability of hitting the nail... for me chance has 2 outcomes, you hit the nail or you don't.

[mashman]

you don't understand prababilities do you, 50-50 means you have a 50% chance of crashing on a corner, which statistically means if you go round it 100 times, you will fall off about 50 times, so fuck knows how you have got round it thousands of times so far! and yeh you can get hit by a meteor and killed too, but you're a lot less likely to die that way then from cocking it up on the road, as you are a lot less likely to cock it up on the road if you don't ride at your limit, also you are a lot less likely to be killed on the road if you know you and your bikes realistic limits.

Not in my definition. What is the probability of me hitting a 6 on a dice, 1 in 6, the chances of me getting a 6 are 50 - 50. That's how I look at it.

[bogan]

Not in my definition. What is the probability of me hitting a 6 on a dice, 1 in 6, the chances of me getting a 6 are 50 - 50. That's how I look at it.

now you're just trying to fuck with us right?

[mashman]

WTF? They must have magical fire and forget heat sinking Ground To Aprilia nail missiles where you live

Stop pulling numbers out of your arse, it makes you look like a muppet.

/edit: Yes yes, one L

Where's my red ... That's how I look at things.

I can't stop the number 2's though

[mashman]

now you're just trying to fuck with us right?

Nope. That's how I see it. You either hit the 6 or you don't, that to me is chance.

[imdying]

now you're just trying to fuck with us right?

Surely?!?

[bogan]

Nope. That's how I see it. You either hit the 6 or you don't, that to me is chance.

ok i'll bite. You either hit the 6, or the 1, or the 2,3,4,5. 50-50 is just another way of saying 1 in 2, dice is 1 in 6.

[Katman]

Good thread.........well it was before semantics stepped in

Was that before or after post #2.

[mashman]

ok i'll bite. You either hit the 6, or the 1, or the 2,3,4,5. 50-50 is just another way of saying 1 in 2, dice is 1 in 6.

Yes, that's how I see it. The probability of hitting a 6 is 1 in 6, i have a 50 - 50 chance that i hit the 6

[bogan]

Yes, that's how I see it. The probability of hitting a 6 is 1 in 6, i have a 50 - 50 chance that i hit the 6

now substitute "1 in 2" instead of "50-50" and read that back