
Originally Posted by
Oakie
To date I've put in $1370 of my own money and my balance is at just under $5000. You just can't convince me that KiwiSaver is a bad thing. Sure, there's a chance that something bad could happen to the provider I've chosen but there is a deal of protection there so I'm quite comfortable.
Kiwisaver is not a bad thing. It is just not as good a thing as it is promoted as being.
I don't think its the best use of your money, by a long, long shot. But as others have commented, they would otherwise be spending their money on wine, women and song. (Another great investment in my opinion.)
Your sums about your investment return to date, are entirely correct. It has, in percentage terms performed really well for you.
But lets imagine you had started in kiwisaver 20 years ago, and your balance is $250,000.
Your contribution = $915
Your employer = $915
Tax credits = $915
Fund Growth ? Who knows ? Historically it will be minimal, maybe 4%
Fund Growth = $10,000
Less Tax leaves $7900
Less Fees leaves $7400
New Balance = $ 260145
Reduce to allow for inflation @ 3.5% (IMHO a conservative figure given history)
New Real Balance = $251,039.
Thats not a spectacular return. But its still better than a kick in the head !
The issue is the great unknowns. The major one is inflation.
The key rule is that in times of high inflation, the person who controls assets will win.
The person who owns cash will lose.
An example..
In 1972 my mum built a brand new house. Nice location near the beach, 3/4 acre section, 4 bedrooms, brick and tile. It cost $5000. An absolute fortune, about 4 times her annual wage.
In two years time, the $4000 mortgage will be paid off.
For the first 5 years, the mortgage plus rates and insurance were much higher than renting, with mum spitting out a massive 50% of her take home pay on the $10 a week mortgage. The next 5, it was about the same as renters. For the last 30, mums house has been appreciating in value, while all her outgoings were reducing as a percentage of her wage. But she still paid $10 a week mortgage.
Mum has lived cheaply for 30 years. Paid no tax on her appreciating asset. And could now subdivide, or sell and move to a smaller home, banking hundreds of thousands of dollar in the process.
Compare to the man who put his $5000 in an investment. Even a really good one, paying say 10% and paying tax at the super low PIE rate.
He would have $104,000 in the bank today.
What if he had added the $500 a year mum was paying in mortgage repayments ?
Well first, he would have struggled.
As he had to live somewhere, he would be paying rent.
But assuming he could do that, then he would have a whopping $240,000.
So IMHO Kiwisaver may be a good idea if you don't have a clue about managing money. But if you do, then you may find that simply buying your own home, and clearing the debt quickly is a better bet.
The other thing to remember is that all the calculation we have done about kiwisaver assume that the governments tax credit will rise every year by the rate of inflation. So far it has not, and I am not aware of any commitment from Government to increase it.
So the kiwisaver returns calculated are higher than you will actually get.
David must play fair with the other kids, even the idiots.
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