Ken Ring's predicted earthquake for 20 March?

[HenryDorsetCase]

I noticed this thread went very quiet after the 5.1 last night.
You guys still ok down there?

Got to say, looks like a win to Ken Ring.

I'd be too ashamed to admit to being a geologist (or a skeptic for that matter). I mean, It's your job, but you don't even know where the fuck the fault lines are and someone is better at predicting shit in your field of "expertise" with a fucking cat's paw. Seriously, what fucken use are they?

You're tolling, obviously. Or are illiterate and illinformed, by choice. or a crystal spinning fucktard.

[avgas]

Can someone explain to me why a 'full moon' would cause more gravity then say "first quarter"........I don't follow how more sunlight hitting it makes it closer to us? Its not like half the moon disappears simply because the light does not hit it.

I believing the whole "if you cant see it - clearly its gone" at age 1, when my nose failed to disappear anymore.

[The Stranger:Me]

You're tolling, obviously. Or are illiterate and illinformed, by choice. or a crystal spinning fucktard.

Crystals? Where'd the crystals come from?
What's the matter, you can't read - Cat's paws for god's sake.
Did you read his book? How can you possibly comment then. There are some very interesting revelations in that book.

You need to get your head out of the sand.
Let's tally it up
nick smith - egg all over his face
geologists - 0
cat man - 100% hit rate.

Ring for the win!

[marie_speeds]

cat man - 100% hit rate.

Hey Katman...can you feel the ?

[James Deuce]

Can someone explain to me why a 'full moon' would cause more gravity then say "first quarter"........I don't follow how more sunlight hitting it makes it closer to us? Its not like half the moon disappears simply because the light does not hit it.

I believing the whole "if you cant see it - clearly its gone" at age 1, when my nose failed to disappear anymore.

It's not the full moon that is posited as causing the postulated prediction.

The moon is in an elliptical orbit around the earth and the current full moon is at the same time the moon ever gets to the earth (Perihelion).

The following will explain it, not that you'll read it.

http://www.badastronomy.com/bitesize...n_perigee.html

[Pixie]

I didnt read the rest of your post because that sentence made me see red.

You are flat wrong. New Zealand geoscience is at the leading edge internationally. Something to do with living on shaky islands perhaps.

Read the post then or else I will just say "I rest my case"

[Pixie]

Can someone explain to me why a 'full moon' would cause more gravity then say "first quarter"........I don't follow how more sunlight hitting it makes it closer to us? Its not like half the moon disappears simply because the light does not hit it.

I believing the whole "if you cant see it - clearly its gone" at age 1, when my nose failed to disappear anymore.

At the time of Full Moon or New Moon the Earth is in a line between the sun and the moon.This causes maximum tidal effects,King tides etc.

[idb]

At the time of Full Moon or New Moon the Earth is in a line between the sun and the moon.This causes maximum tidal effects,King tides etc.

So why aren't there devastating earthquakes twice every month?

[Grubber]

Crystals? Where'd the crystals come from?
What's the matter, you can't read - Cat's paws for god's sake.
Did you read his book? How can you possibly comment then. There are some very interesting revelations in that book.

You need to get your head out of the sand.
Let's tally it up
nick smith - egg all over his face
geologists - 0
cat man - 100% hit rate.

Ring for the win!

100% hit rate??????
Your pulling my leg right.....he was not even close. Unless of coarse you are like one or 2 others i have spoke to ( very much like religious people on the convert) try to use every argument possible to make him sound believable.
Yesterdays quake was an aftershock and nothing like he was predicting. I could have seen that one coming.

[merv]

Well said. I don't even bother moving now - possibly a bad move as if a good-un comes through I'll be on my chair, couch, whatever riding it out.

And there was a bit of disappointment last night. Yes that sounds a bit sick but there has been such a build-up in CHCH of late over Mr Rings 20th comments that the 5.1 was a let-down. Expectations were so high even by everyone who knew better!

Remember he said within a few days of the 20th - you might still be expecting the big one. Just hope you don't get a tsunami with it the way the shocks have headed towards the coast since starting over Darfield way 6 months ago.

[motor_mayhem]

So why aren't there devastating earthquakes twice every month?

because earthquakes don't believe in astrology

[idb]

Unfortunately NZ Scientists merely toe the conservative line until some overseas research is safely proven - too afraid to investigate new ideas.

I use "new" loosely tidal earthquake triggering has been hypothesized for over 100 years:

Strong Earth Tides Can Trigger Earthquakes, UCLA Scientists Report

ScienceDaily (Oct. 22, 2004) — Earthquakes can be triggered by the Earth's tides, UCLA scientists confirmed Oct. 21 in Science Express, the online journal of Science. Earth tides are produced by the gravitational pull of the moon and the sun on the Earth, causing the ocean's waters to slosh, which in turn raise and lower stress on faults roughly twice a day. Scientists have wondered about the effects of Earth tides for more than 100 years. (The research will be published in the print version of Science in November.)
See Also:
Earth & Climate
Earthquakes
Natural Disasters
Earth Science
Geology
Environmental Issues
Near-Earth Object Impacts
Reference
Tide
Tide pool
North Anatolian Fault
Alpine Fault

"Large tides have a significant effect in triggering earthquakes," said Elizabeth Cochran, a UCLA graduate student in Earth and space sciences and lead author of the Science paper. "The earthquakes would have happened anyway, but they can be pushed sooner or later by the stress fluctuations of the tides."

"Scientists have long suspected the tides played a role, but no one has been able to prove that for earthquakes worldwide until now," said John Vidale, UCLA professor of Earth and space sciences, interim director of UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, and co-author of the paper. "Earthquakes have shown such clear correlations in only a few special settings, such as just below the sea-floor or near volcanoes."

"There are many mysteries about how earthquakes occur, and this clears up one of them," Vidale said. "We find that it takes about the force arising from changing the sea level by a couple of meters of water to noticeably affect the rate of earthquakes. This is a concrete step in understanding what it takes to set off an earthquake."

Cochran, Vidale and co-author Sachiko Tanaka are the first researchers to factor in both the phase of the tides and the size of the tides, and are using calculations of the effects of the tides more accurate than were available just three years ago. Tanaka is a seismologist with Japan's National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention.

Cochran and Vidale analyzed more than 2,000 earthquakes worldwide, magnitude 5.5 and higher, which struck from 1977 to 2000. They studied earthquakes in "subduction zones" where one tectonic plate dives under another, such as near the coasts of Alaska, Japan, New Zealand and western South America. "These earthquakes show a correlation with tides because along continent edges ocean tides are strong," Vidale said, "and the orientation of the fault plane is better known than for faults elsewhere."

Cochran conducted a statistical analysis of the earthquakes and tidal stress data, using state-of-the-science tide calculations from Tanaka and the best global earthquake data, which came from Harvard seismologists. This research follows up on a 2002 study by Tanaka. The current research was funded by the National Science Foundation and the Laurence Livermore National Laboratory.

Cochran and Vidale found a strong correlation between when earthquakes strike and when tidal stress on fault planes is high, and the likelihood of these results occurring by chance is less than one in 10,000, Cochran said. They found that strong tides impose enough stress on shallow faults to trigger earthquakes. If the tides are very large, more than two meters, three?quarters of the earthquakes occur when tidal stress acts to encourage triggering, she found. Fewer earthquakes are triggered when the tides are smaller.

In California, and in fact in most places in the world, the correlation between earthquakes and tides is considerably smaller, Vidale said. In California, tides may vary the rate of earthquakes at most one or two percent; the overall effect of the tides is smaller, he said, because the faults studied are many miles inland from the coast and the tides are not particularly large.

Just a quick read of these tells me that the Christchurch earthquakes don't apply as they weren't in a subduction zone.

[oneofsix]

Remember he said within a few days of the 20th - you might still be expecting the big one. Just hope you don't get a tsunami with it the way the shocks have headed towards the coast since starting over Darfield way 6 months ago.

Cheerful. Even I can predict there will be a quake in the next few days but I say it will be an aftershock and smaller than an 8 and getting smaller.

[idb]

Cheerful. Even I can predict there will be a quake in the next few days but I say it will be an aftershock and smaller than an 8 and getting smaller.

I heard some commentator say that predicting earthquakes in Christchurch at the moment is like predicting rain in India during the monsoon season

[Maha]

I predict that Easter will be in late April this year, not early April like last year when the moon was in polar shift.