Who will win the 2011 election?

[rainman]

I really don't see why this is an election issue for so many.

Likewise. The probability of me retiring at 65 is zero, not because I'm a workaholic, but because economic and other circumstances will obtain that make it essential for All Sensible Governments to raise the retirement age before then anyway. Anyone in their 40's or younger who doesn't accept this as self-evident is smoking crack.

Sure there will be various subsidies and special cases and all, but it has to happen before long.

(And that's the good outcome. You don't want to know about the bad outcome).

Nah mate, I've got a $500.00 Nissan Bluebird. Bought it 5 years ago and it's cost me tyres, oil and a new battery in that time. Best car ever built.

Next time I buy a car I'll hire you to do it for me. I'm about 50/50 buying really good cheap cars and nightmare lemons from hell. I really fucking hate buying cars. I'd rather buy shoes, and I fucking hate buying shoes.

And your motorcycle shop analogy up above is sheer brilliance. Kudos and bling to you.

[mashman]

Likewise. The probability of me retiring at 65 is zero, not because I'm a workaholic, but because economic and other circumstances will obtain that make it essential for All Sensible Governments to raise the retirement age before then anyway. Anyone in their 40's or younger who doesn't accept this as self-evident is smoking crack.

Sure there will be various subsidies and special cases and all, but it has to happen before long.

(And that's the good outcome. You don't want to know about the bad outcome).

Aye, very true. I assume the bad outcome you're referring is that there will be no pension "system" at all? I'm half keeping an eye on the U.S. as they're really in the shit in regards to "state" retirement funds... amongst other things.

[rainman]

I assume the bad outcome you're referring is that there will be no pension "system" at all?

The bad outcome is there is no system at all.

[mashman]

The bad outcome is there is no system at all.

heh... now yer just teasin me

[SPman]

Sounds more like a media beat up because there's nothing else to pick on

......and isn't that a sad comment on the state of main stream media in NZ at the moment...

[oldrider]

......and isn't that a sad comment on the state of main stream media in NZ at the moment...

Unhappy but true!

[mashman]

......and isn't that a sad comment on the state of main stream media in NZ at the moment...

heh, if only it were only NZ ... shame not many really give a shit

[Indiana_Jones]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't labour proposing a rolling change to 67? Only had a quick glance in the paper the other day. But it seems like it will mean the baby boomers will still get to retire at 65, well most of them. Doesn't that defeat the point?

-Indy

[Ocean1]

Doesn't that defeat the point?

The point isn't to fix the problem, it's to be SEEN to be fixing the problem. It's election year for chrisake it matters not that they're three decades late addressing the issue!

And yes, boomers are generally accepted as being those born from the mid 40's to the early 60's, they started retiring a year or two ago.

There's two major economic changes at work, there. The cost of pensions and the loss of tax from the highest income demographic.

Public focus seems to be on the first, I thought the second was the bigger hit...

Wiki:

Baby Boomers control over 80% of personal financial assets and more than 50% of discretionary spending power., July 2011 They are responsible for more than half of all consumer spending, buy 77% of all prescription drugs, 61% of OTC medication and 80% of all leisure travel.

This lot leaving the workforce is a huge economic brake.

[shrub]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't labour proposing a rolling change to 67? Only had a quick glance in the paper the other day. But it seems like it will mean the baby boomers will still get to retire at 65, well most of them. Doesn't that defeat the point?

-Indy

Bad news mate, us baby boomers run the show at the moment so we'll be retiring at 65 come what may. The reality is most people working now will face a choice of retiring later and/or retiring on less. The only variable is when. The two main political parties have behaved true to form on this: Labour have come in half arsed and populist while National have stuck to their winning formula of hiding behind John Key's lovely smile while doing nothing and hoping the problem goes away.

Out of the two approaches Labour's is slightly better because in 20 years time John's smile won't count for jack, but they need to be bolder and stronger. They needed to make the increases start in 5- 10 years, but offer people the choice of retiring at 65 on a slightly lower rate. Labour won't win this election unless John Key announces that he and Bill English are gay lovers and are retiring to grow dope and run a brothel, which gives them the perfect chance to set themselves up for 2014 by coming out with strong, visionary and radical policies. They'll scare the nervous and ignorant, but most of them are voting National anyway, so they won't lose much and they may even get a few people thinking "hmmm.. these guys have ideas that might just work". Then in 2014 they can come back and show how their policies would have impacted on NZ if they had won in 2011.

National may win in 2014, but to be honest I doubt it. Very little of what they have done in the last 3 years or intend to do in the next 3 years will do anything to make NZ a better place or make you and I richer, and looking at global trends I get the feeling we will all be noticeably worse off in 2014. They may be able to get away with their flaccid incompetence by blaming external events again, and our fucking quake will be a good excuse for a long time, but I doubt many people are that gullible. So Labour needs to use this election and the next 3 years to regroup and set themselves up, but I can't see that happening because they only have slightly more balls than National, and they don't have a strong and gutsy leader in the ranks.

Interesting times...

[Banditbandit]

Interesting times...

Chinese curse ...

[shrub]

Chinese curse ...

May you come to the attention of powerful people and may your wishes be granted.

[Winston001]

That's one of the reasons I like the list system of MMP - you don't just get people in government who are smooth and convincing baby kissers; you also get people who know all about law, economics, diplomacy etc.

Going back to my motorcycle analogies, if you staffed a bike shop the way a FPP government was, everyone would be a salesman whereas I'd rather the guy out the back was hired because he was a mechanical genius...

Nicely put. Regrettably a huge swathe of the electorate think every MP should be elected because nobody makes your points loudly enough to make them think a bit deeper.

[Winston001]

Out of the two approaches Labour's is slightly better because in 20 years time John's smile won't count for jack, but they need to be bolder and stronger.

National may win in 2014, but to be honest I doubt it. Very little of what they have done in the last 3 years or intend to do in the next 3 years will do anything to make NZ a better place or make you and I richer, and looking at global trends I get the feeling we will all be noticeably worse off in 2014.

Or could it be that "steady as she goes, light handed government" as under National is exactly the right balance. MPs don't invent new products, game breaking technologies, or discover new markets. For example a Northland business is now exporting avocado pulp in ready to use packets. Simple idea but its working.

By contrast the single impression I get from Labour is they want to take take take. More taxes, new taxes, strip savings. People get sick of the attitude that what they earn, save, build up over a lifetime must be diminished by government.

[Spearfish]

I think the 9 years Labour was at at the helm has been forgotten?
List the experts in that bunch starting with Cullen.......the attorney-general with a Ph.D. in Social and Economic History. Law maker expert of the highest degree
Next...
And...


then there are the dark Greens that are the sidekicks of the Pinkos
Suet Bradford selected by the NZ harold as the Poly of the year in 2000!
Next...
And....

Yeah MMP works at bringing in the experts (especially the ones on the lists nobody votes for).
I think it needs tweaking a plenty.

The real Question of this election is how long will Phil Goff be in the top money after the election or will he be asking aunty Helen for a office junior job pushing socialism at the UN?

Perhaps Ian Wishart is is hoping NZers cant cope with running their own lives and ask for the return of mother Labour to take over the reigns again. Absolute Power Two, the Goffs years and the punishment of the ungrateful flock.