Situation hotting up in the Middle East

[Crasherfromwayback]

Are we going for godwins here? I'd much rather be buff blonde haired and blue eyed if that's what yer gettin at. @saved... wonder where the economy woulda been had they failed? We are where we are in history, I give a shit not where we've been, only where we're going.

Yeah and I've always quite fancied wee Asian chicks. But I'm glad I get to speak English still. The way I see it is...someone has to be the world police. Sure they prefer countries rich in oil (funny that), but if you'd like Iran to have nuclear weapons you're not as smart as I though you were. They'd have no hesitation in sending them to Israel and that wouldn't be good.

[mashman]

Yeah and I've always quite fancied wee Asian chicks. But I'm glad I get to speak English still. The way I see it is...someone has to be the world police. Sure they prefer countries rich in oil (funny that), but if you'd like Iran to have nuclear weapons you're not as smart as I though you were. They'd have no hesitation in sending them to Israel and that wouldn't be good.

If the Germans had have won, would you have been born at all? and would you have cared that you didn't speak Engrish? Oh I dunno. Israel have nukes and would probably send them back. How's that going to help anyone? We'll destroy ourselves, but at least the Israeli's will be gone too? For some reason I don't see it happening. Perhaps they've seen the Israeli's throwing their weight around and decided that they'd have themselves a deterrent?

p.s. don't underestimate my dumbness again, I don't like it

[pete376403]

No-one took North Korea even the slightest bit seriously until they aquired nukes. Can't really blame Iran for wanting the same sort of clout.

Besides, theres already one nuclear-armed middle eastern country with religious fanatics at the helm - another would just balance things a bit

[Hans]

No-one took North Korea even the slightest bit seriously until they aquired nukes. Can't really blame Iran for wanting the same sort of clout.

Besides, theres already one nuclear-armed middle eastern country with religious fanatics at the helm - another would just balance things a bit

There may be two nuclear armed countries in the middle east. Rumour has it that Saudi Arabia...

[pete376403]

There may be two nuclear armed countries in the middle east. Rumour has it that Saudi Arabia...

Not as silly as it sounds. Saudi is about the only country in the region that Israel leaves more or less alone.

[Hans]

Nothing silly about it at all. What's more, they have the IRBMs to deliver the rumoured warheads. Israel and the Saudis get along fairly well. It is also rumoured that they might provide overflight rights or perhaps even the use of airbases for an Israli airstrike on Iran. Iran and Saudi Arabia also happen to be mortal enemies.
BTW: it doesn't take a great deal of imagination to figure where the Saudis might have got their nukes from...Pakistan...

[Macontour]

I have an old school mate who has done very well for himself in the Royal Air Force. He has worked in Whitehall and various NATO postings around the world. Just by coincidence he sent this to me today. a bit of a long read and only one persons opinion but he is pretty well qualified to make it!!

NATO School Oberammergau

Strategic Commentary Nr 20120113

UNCLASSIFIED

Iran, Nuclear Weapons and Pakistan – a Perfect Storm?

This briefing and analysis is about the strategic challenges posed by rapidly unfolding events in Iran and Pakistan. Though the issues are not directly related, the countries involved are neighbours and relations between them are, at best cool.

Situation:

Iran: Iran continues to enrich uranium at levels ‘consistent with the production of fissile material for a nuclear device’ according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. This is another clear indication of a desire of Iran to develop an independent nuclear capability. This, of course, has raised global concerns and both the US and the EU have imposed economic sanctions on Iran – in particular trade with its financial institutions. Iran, in response to these sanctions, has threatened to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, were a significant percentage (between 30 – 60% - depending on how it is measured) of world crude oil is shipped. To reinforce this threat, the Iranian Navy and the Republic Guard have recently conducted a series of maritime and land-based exercises that demonstrated some capability to carry out this threat – by use of submarines, land-based anti-shipping missiles and by the employment of deep-hulled ultra-high speed missile boats with a mine-laying capability. The Head of the Iranian Navy also issued a specific threat about attacking a US Carrier Group if it attempted to intervene.

Comment: Such rhetoric is common, and Iranian attempts to close the strait have been present since 1979, and Western naval forces, working in ad hoc coalitions have periodically ensured the right of free passage of both merchant and naval vessels. Strategists typically yawn, and state that Iran would not cut off its only major source of foreign revenue by closing the Strait. Japan has announced that it is reducing its dependency on Iranian oil and the difference this time is that the sanctions have the potential to financially isolate Iran, and the regimes that run Iran (the Supreme Council of absolutists on one side and the less-than rational Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on the other) could inflict huge global economic damage by closing the Strait, howsoever temporary, as revenge to these sanctions.

However, on the nuclear side, there have been a number of successful attacks against ‘key’ Iranian nuclear scientists, as well as a widely-reported cyber attack against SCIDA controls within some of the nculcear facilities. These are routinely attributed to MOSSAD – or the US (or both) - but, there is no open source material that supports these claims. A recent article by Shashank Joshi, of the widely-respected security think-tank RUSI, points out that there are many possible threats to the Iranian nuclear programme, from across the region – and from dissident groups within the country. Apart from Syria, Venezuela, Cuba and North Korea, Iran has few friends internationally that are not Pariah states, in spite of technical assistance from China, and a lesser extent, Russia. Countries across the region may publically denounce attacks against Iran, however, behind closed doors, they are likely to welcome a bluntening of Iran’s nuclear (and conventional) ambitions. One-off alliances may be established to allow attacks to be prosecuted because of mutual self interest.

But why is Iran behaving like this? Partly for domestic consumption – with Parliamentary elections in 6 weeks. But partly because of a reaction to the Arab Spring. Tunisia, Libya and Egypt have undergone revolutions which have lead – so far – to moderate (albeit Islamist-leaning) governments-in-waiting, and not rabid anti-Western (and anti-Sunni) pro-Shi’a and pro-Iranian regimes. Demographically, Iran and Syria are very similar. Three years ago Iran managed to suppress the amorphous ‘green revolution’ but must the regimes must be concerned that domestic opposition groups are heartened by results of other dissent across much of the neighbouring Arab world, and in particular, Syria’s inability to stop the spread of dissent and revolution in spite of Draconian measures and widespread loss of life.


Pakistan:

Pakistan could be on the edge of a military coup. The Prime Minister is calling for a confidence vote in Parliament on Monday 17 Jan, amidst a deepening crisis between the Government, the Military and the Judiciary. Here’s the time line (courtesy of the BBC News website):

2 May: Pakistan's army widely criticised after the US raid on Bin Laden's Abbottabad home
10 October: A Financial Times article reveals the existence of an anonymous memo written after the raid, asking for US help to curb the army
22 November: Pakistan's US envoy Husain Haqqani resigns after claims he and President Zardari wrote the memo - they deny this
23 December: Army chief dismisses coup rumours after PM Yousuf Raza Gilani speaks out against an alleged coup plot
30 December: Pakistan's Supreme Court opens an inquiry into the "memogate" affair. There are suspicions that the memo was forged in order to discredit the Government.
11 January: The army publicly rebukes Mr Gilani after he criticised army leaders in an interview. He responds by sacking Pakistan's defence secretary.
It is also reported on some websites that General Pervez Musharraf plans to return to Pakistan by the end of January, facing possible arrest. Pakistan came under military rule again in October 1999 after Musharraf ousted a civilian government that had lost a great deal of public support. Under growing pressure to reintroduce democratic rule, Mr Musharraf relinquished his army post in November 2007, but at parliamentary elections in February 2008, his supporters were defeated by the opposition Pakistan People's Party and former PM Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League. The two parties formed a coalition government and an impeachment process was launched against Mr Musharraf, who resigned in Aug 08 and then left the country.

Comment: Musharraf’s arrival could be the catalyst for another military coup, which could lead to widespread insurrection, strengthing the ambiguous role the Taliban and AQ have in country. Relations with the US and the West (including NATO) are at an all-time low; the NATO report on the border incident (released on 23 Dec) in which a number of PAK soldiers were killed by ‘NATO’ drew oblique criticism of the Pakistan Army’s behaviour and raised questions about opsec and allegiances. If a coup took place, NATO is unlikely to have the southern MSR restored into Afghanistan; moreover it is likely that border cooperation – already patchy – would all but collapse. India’s response to a coup would be concerning – especially as both countries have nuclear weapons and controls within PAK might be further eroded.

So what?

It is difficult to asses which crisis is more serious. If attempts were made to close the Strait of Hormuz, there would be immediate economic impact with global implications. The price of crude oil would rise considerably, inflicting further – and possible irreparable – damage on faltering Global economies. If offensive action was taken by, say, Israel, against Iranian Nuclear facilities, Iran would respond asymmetrically (and probably close the Strait for good measure). As mentioned above, there would be covert support for such action from countries in the region – principally Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Suadi Arabia is currently attempting to suppress a Shi’a rebellion in its Western provinces which is believed to be supported by Iran.

If Pakistan undergoes yet another military coup (possibly with Musharref restored), relations with the West and India would collapse. Although Musharref was always seen as friendly to the West, he would realize that his political (and physical) survival would rest on the support of the Army. This would have an immediate impact on the conflict in Afghanistan, with the likelihood of Taliban presence in Quetta, for example, being tolerated even more that it is at present. India would necessarily be concerned about a militant Pakistan and could seek to seize and advance in the disputed territories on Kashmir during the Spring thaw, whilst the PAK Army is distracted by internal strife arising from the coup. Pakistan is unlikely to allow such a move to pass ‘unpunished’ and could call on Chinese assistance, given the huge level of trade, financial and military assistance China provides in return for access to the Arabian sea and the wider Indian Ocean.

And NATO…so What?

In spite of stringent financial constraints amongst member states (or indeed because of them) if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, it is possible that NATO could stand up a Naval force to maintain security of the Strait after it was cleared by a smaller coalition, led by the USN 5th Fleet. Legally, it is likely that NATO would do so in response to a UNSCR – on this occasion, it is likely that neither China nor Russia would veto such a move, because of economic self-interest. Russia has a Carrier task group (led by the Adm Kusnetzov CVN) in the Eastern Mediterranean, and reported it is planning to head to the Arabian Sea. Chinese Naval surface unitsd are also assisting in CP missions of the nearby Horn of Africa.

As discussed above, a collapsing Pakistan would lead to increased cross-border insurgency, possibly with the overt support of the PAK Army. Clearly, the Southern MSR would not reopen, nor would extant ABO be supported. This would drastically change the 2014 ISAF force reduction calculus, and lead to a collapse of the already-fractious relations between Karzai’s Government in Kabul and an unknown regime in Islamabad..

And what if both of the scenarios played out over the next month….?


Of course, I hope I wrong.

Wg Cdr Bryan J Hunt SPPD Strategic Analyst, NATO School Oberammergau. Compiled for open sources.


This analysis is personal opinion and does not reflect the policy of the NATO School Oberammergau, or indeed, of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and its constituent bodies.



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[Berries]

Heard the one about the Irish suicide bomber........

Funny. I went in to a leather shop today, run by Pakistanis as it happens. All I asked for was a bomber jacket and I got thrown out.

[ellipsis]

...you can worry, expostulate, be slightly concerned,be terrified, not give two fucks, be slightly miffed with the stuation...it really makes no odds....we cant even make Nick Smith go away...why even bother about the bigger picture...

[TrentNz]

Thoughts: the US should drop every nuclear bomb they have on Iran, fuck the civilians there all as bad as each-other.
although... they probably don't want to do this because then the country would be inaccessible and no further crude oil would be able to be extracted..

[Mungatoke Mad]

Why just Iran ? There's plenty 2 go around Kill em all

[scissorhands]

Obama is the man for the job

[jasonu]

Obama is the man for the job

Obama will be out of a job (hopefully) come this November.

[Edbear]

Why just Iran ? There's plenty 2 go around Kill em all

There are enough nuclear warheads to obliterate all life on Earth many times over.

[240]

The problem is with these towel heads is that dying is a GOOD thing to them!
Meeting Allah and taking out the infidels is a great way to go, they don't give a fuck.
I heard someone on the radio last week say what better way for them to show that they are serious about having nuclear capability than exploding a bomb on a small remote country like NZ?
Fuck em I say the Yanks should sort them NOW.