Peak oil's a bust, eco fags

[schrodingers cat]

It is fair to say that that human activity (particularly the use of fossil fuels) has accelerated the natural climate cycle.

The downstream effects can be predicted generally and it is likely that a rapid rate of change in climate will put pressure on many natural and man made systems. Whilst natural systems are largely self-adjusting the availability and distribution of resources will become a challenge.

A good many, well intentioned, solutions are posited but the arguments and conflicting agendas muddy the water.

Any solution to any problem requires individuals to accept the solution (voluntarily or not) and apply the solution.

In essence - it requires RATIONAL behaviour.

And deep down, humans are not rational.

They can be - if it suits their needs. Or they cannot be - if it suits their needs

And for as many who care, there are plenty who don't give a fuck. Or, who are ambivalent in the face of the shit fight, like me.

[Swoop]

Well, there is a shit-load of oil now being kept underground AND a heap of cheap oil sitting inside ships waiting for a buyer!


12 July, 2012: The new, and more severe, sanctions against Iran have been in force for nearly two weeks, and they are hurting. Oil shipments, according to the Iranian government, are down 30 percent. Inflation, according to the government is somewhere north of 20 percent. It's actually closer to 30 percent, largely because the government just prints more money to give angry Iranians, to help offset the ever-rising prices. This just makes the inflation worse.


The U.S. made no secret of sending more mine clearing equipment to the Persian Gulf. This is one of several American responses to increasingly belligerent threats coming from Iran. The new sanctions, meant mainly to cut Iranian oil sales and smuggling efforts (in response to earlier sanctions) are hurting. Inflation and shortages of imported goods are both getting worse. This hurts most Iranians and has turned public opinion against the nuclear weapons program. The religious dictatorship that has run the country for three decades long ago lost the loyalty of most Iranians. The corruption, brutality and hypocrisy of the government has been matched by brutality and the loyalty of a quarter of the population that, for religious reasons, backs the clerics. Officially, the sanctions are meant to persuade the Iranian government to halt their nuclear weapons program. Unofficially, the sanctions will only do that if enough Iranians get angry enough to rebel, or convince the government that the long anticipated rebellion is about to happen. No sign of that yet.


Some countries have been granted temporary exemption from the Iranian sanctions. These include the major customers (China, India, South Korea and Japan) for Iranian oil, who are being given several months (or as long as needed) to line up other suppliers. Most oil sales are via multi-month contracts for huge (millions of barrels) amounts. The gives the supplier and customer certainty that makes it possible to efficiently run pumping, shipping, refining and distribution to end-users.

Normally Iran pumps three million barrels a day. But about a third of that output has already lost its customers and oil wells are being shut down to reduce production. In June, Iranian production officially shrank 150,000 barrels a day. But the reality is greater. Iran has been storing unsold oil on ships, but there are no more unused tankers for this (despite ordering 12 new ones from China and India) and Iran is hustling to expand the black market for oil. Iranian sales agents are making it known that deals can be made, to get large quantities of oil at large discounts. There is some risk, but the profits would be great. The United States is using its extensive intelligence, and oil industry resources to find these Iranian deals going down, and to inflict pain on the buyers. For this reason, selling the oil on those "storage tankers" has been very difficult. Iran, however, has a tremendous incentive (survival of the clerical dictatorship) to move the oil. Iranian smugglers have been very resourceful in the past, but smuggling oil that must be moved in 330 meter long super tankers, is much more difficult.


Iran has made it clear that if the sanctions really hurt (they already do), the Straits of Hormuz could be closed by Iranian missiles, mines and warships. This is unlikely, as this would be a declaration of war against most of the world. The threat was mainly for internal consumption, because the oil sales sanctions are hurting.

Right now, the Iranian government is facing monthly losses of $3 billion a month because of lost oil sales. The Iranian government budget is $38 billion a month, so that lost oil income is a major problem for cash-strapped Iran. Because the Iranian currency is rapidly losing value against foreign currencies, the government budget's buying power outside the country is closer to $25 billion a month. This makes it much more expensive to buy foreign goods. Much of the budget goes to aid the poor and unemployed (who got that way largely because of the corruption and economic mismanagement of the religious dictatorship).

Money must also be lavished on the quarter of the population who support the ruling clerics. Many Iranians are already feeling the pinch and they are not happy.

[oneofsix]

It is fair to say that that human activity (particularly the use of fossil fuels) has accelerated the natural climate cycle.

Only as far as it is fair to say emptying a bucket of water into lake Taupo increases its depth. One volcano dwarfs our piddly efforts at accelerating the natural climate cycle.

[mashman]

The ultimate weapon of mass destruction. Money! Fuckin western savages!

[SPman]

Only as far as it is fair to say emptying a bucket of water into lake Taupo increases its depth. One volcano dwarfs our piddly efforts at accelerating the natural climate cycle.

Bullshit! You don't read many scientific articles or papers, do you!

The published estimates of the global CO₂ emission rate for all degassing subaerial (on land) and submarine volcanoes lie in a range from 0.13 gigaton to 0.44 gigaton per year (Gerlach, 1991; Varekamp et al., 1992; Allard, 1992; Sano and Williams, 1996; Marty and Tolstikhin, 1998). The preferred global estimates of the authors of these studies range from about 0.15 to 0.26 gigaton per year. The 35-gigaton projected anthropogenic CO₂ emission for 2010 is about 80 to 270 times larger than the respective maximum and minimum annual global volcanic CO₂ emission estimates. It is 135 times larger than the highest preferred global volcanic CO₂ estimate of 0.26 gigaton per year (Marty and Tolstikhin, 1998).

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php

[schrodingers cat]

Only as far as it is fair to say emptying a bucket of water into lake Taupo increases its depth. One volcano dwarfs our piddly efforts at accelerating the natural climate cycle.

Somewhat. I think your analogy is relevant except the scaling the wrong.
Reduce the lake size, reduce the lake outflow effect and increase the size of the bucket. Now keep adding day after day after day (a little bigger bucket each day)

I'm not a global warming nut. Only those in denial would claim that massive human population and (fossil) based activity has no effect.

PS : Since I have no children frankly I don't give a rats arse if the human race destroys itself.

[Voltaire]

There was a good program a couple of weeks back on Choice about " the 7 sisters' ( aka the oil companies).
Interesting bit was the US got into an arms race with the Soviet Union who were funding it off oil sales.....the US forced Saudi to produce more and flood the market and the Soviet Union went bust.
Most of out oil seems to come from places with dodgy govts as they get personally wealthy as none of the money filters down.
Russia produces a lot and pipes it thru Syria........to the Med for Europe......so no help coming there....
Libyia on the other hand is in US and UK hands......oh.....the same UK and US who got rid of Gaddaffi.....
apparently Mr Chavez is different so the US boycotts him.
Dirty stuff oil.....

[mashman]

Only as far as it is fair to say emptying a bucket of water into lake Taupo increases its depth. One volcano dwarfs our piddly efforts at accelerating the natural climate cycle.

If that were the case, would be be happy to keep on polluting?

[blue rider]

is all normal,....weather patterns are normal.....nothing to see here, nothing what so ever.
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/natio...drought/54479/

[mashman]

is all normal,....weather patterns are normal.....nothing to see here, nothing what so ever.
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/natio...drought/54479/

I saw a story the other day that said that 2011 was the worst year on record, weather and disaster wise, in US history. It also mentioned the floods in Asia and the UK etc... aye, nothing to see at all. Natural or not, we really aren't ready for it and really don't know... too much fuckin around counting the money. Unfortunately I hope it gets worse, much worse.

[carbonhed]

Unfortunately I hope it gets worse, much worse.

The perfect measure of your "character".

[mashman]

The perfect measure of your "character".

... coming from you that means absolutely nuffink. Tis those of a character, lack of that is, similar to yourself that leave me with the dark thoughts ... other than that I'm optimism central

[Usarka]

Damn straight that is optimistism!

The potential for it to be a catalyst for major scientifica and technical advances, innovation, social reforms etc are huger than huge. Sure there might be a period of pain first. Put that mutha fuckin singularity on a mutha fuckin plane!

[mashman]

Damn straight that is optimistism!

The potential for it to be a catalyst for major scientifica and technical advances, innovation, social reforms etc are huger than huge. Sure there might be a period of pain first. Put that mutha fuckin singularity on a mutha fuckin plane!

aaaaaaaaas long as the scientists etc... have survived. WTF is the use of a bunker full of politicians and war mongers... they have a hard enough time being proactive let alone innovative. Of course a larger downside could be that the oceans will flood with the new never ending supply of oil . Still, as a wise man once said put that mutha fuckin singularity on a mutha fuckin plane... not that I know what that means, but it sounded like a bodacious, righteous and positive thing to do... but we'll all need to be singing from the same hymn sheet in order to put that idea to bed.

[carbonhed]

... coming from you that means absolutely nuffink. Tis those of a character, lack of that is, similar to yourself that leave me with the dark thoughts ... other than that I'm optimism central

Riiiiiight. It's all other peoples fault. Bit of a theme in your life isn't it?

Hoping for disaster doesn't really qualify you as being optimistic... lots of other things but optimistic not.