
Originally Posted by
James Deuce
Depends on a bunch of factors.
Solar panels are currently 20x more land efficient than bio-fuels, including mining the material to make the panels, so I don't see the IC as a primary motive power source for vehicles. This will probably have the effect of reducing the effective range of vehicles and people as despite some impressive improvements in battery technology, I don't see the reliance on rare earth metals and the practice of working 6 year old children to death in filthy, unsafe mines continuing forever, so battery technology may have to undergo some technological changes before it becomes palatable. Having said that, no one thinks about the human cost of an iPhone battery, so maybe we will have batteries with a 700km range at max speed with a 2 minute recharge time.
Are we serious about improving the lifestyle of more than 50% of the world's population? If not, we'll still have personal vehicles. If so, then our highly mobile society will become hugely less mobile. The capacity to change our lifestyle to a "villages within cities" model is already here. If we retain a hydrocarbon based society then bikes will look and behave more like the NC700 (only with better mileage) series than CBR1000RRs, but the people who became addicted to 180hp sportsbikes will be old men chewing their gums outside the pub, while kids on NC500RRs corner at speeds far in excess of any current 1000cc sportsbike thanks to tyre and suspension advancements. Suspension components will be constantly and infinitely self-adjustable and have their own ECU, and performance enhancements will focus on chassis and tyres rather than engine performance. If bikes do sport IC engines, they won't have clutches. Ride by wire brakes and throttle will be the norm, even for "cheap" commuters, allowing for very sophisticated Traction Control, Yaw control, attitude control and allowing the maximum potential braking force at any attitude, from full lean to utterly upright. This will be thanks to bikes like the current BMW HP4 and is a logical extension of any technology acceptance cycle. Very expensive and rarely applied to commonplace and barely thought about.
There is potential for speed limiting, curfews, maximum distance restrictions, along with requiring a reason to use your vehicle, all of which can be controlled and applied remotely. However, given the propensity for tomorrow to be much the same as today, and for even Kiwis to have a threshold for Government interference - nah - the days of weekend rides will be long gone.
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