Thinking of getting vaccinated?

[Katman]

I'm not sure why the incidence rate is being ignored though, surely how effective a vaccine is should be measured by how effectively it reduced the number of those afflicted by the disease, rather than just those killed by it (which also clearly went down when the number of afflicted dropped over 80% and the deaths per case only continued its slight downward trend).

I'm not ignoring the incident rate.

I'm addressing the claim that the introduction of the vaccine led to a massive decrease in the number dying from the disease.

[Woodman]

And regarding 'informed consent', I wonder how many people would be happy to give that consent if their doctor told them "now I'm just going to inject your baby with 50 times the safe level of Aluminium - but don't worry about that".

On average humans eat,drink and breathe in 30-50mg of aluminium per day which is 20 times the maximum allowed in vaccines. So what is your safe level in relation to ?

[Katman]

On average humans eat,drink and breathe in 30-50mg of aluminium per day which is 20 times the maximum allowed in vaccines. So what is your safe level in relation to ?

Parenteral administraion.

Would you like me to quote the FDA document number?

[Woodman]

Parenteral administraion.

Would you like me to quote the FDA document number?

No, because you are away with the fairies.

[bogan]

I'm not ignoring the incident rate.

I'm addressing the claim that the introduction of the vaccine led to a massive decrease in the number dying from the disease.

But it did, the death rate is based on the number of cases (death to case ratio), which is consistently around 1-2 per 1000 cases over that time, but the number of cases changed from 240 to about 40 per 100,000 population. So pre vaccine, deaths are 0.24 per 100,000 population to 0.08 per 100,000 after the vaccine is introduced; and that was taking worst case error margins on the death to case rate. So just how is 0.24 down to 0.08 not a massive decrease?

[Katman]

But it did, the death rate is based on the number of cases (death to case ratio), which is consistently around 1-2 per 1000 cases over that time, but the number of cases changed from 240 to about 40 per 100,000 population. So pre vaccine, deaths are 0.24 per 100,000 population to 0.08 per 100,000 after the vaccine is introduced; and that was taking worst case error margins on the death to case rate. So just how is 0.24 down to 0.08 not a massive decrease?

The graph I posted shows that the rate of incidence from 1912 through to 1963 would average out to a fairly constant line.

The rate of death per incidence during that same time period shows a dramatic decrease.

[bogan]

The graph I posted shows that the rate of incidence from 1912 through to 1963 would average out to a fairly constant line.

The rate of death per incidence during that same time period shows a dramatic decrease.

The death to case ratio shows a continuous decrease with a good fit to exponential decay, in the decade preceding the vaccine's introduction there is no visible decrease in this rate though. It is illogical to assume that a stabilised exponential decay trend would show another significant decrease unless there was a casual factor. It is also worth noting that nowhere in the death to case ratio 'dramatic decrease' was there ever a drop of even 50%, much less the 80% drop in case incidence seen at the vaccine's introduction.

[husaberg]

But it did, the death rate is based on the number of cases (death to case ratio), which is consistently around 1-2 per 1000 cases over that time, but the number of cases changed from 240 to about 40 per 100,000 population. So pre vaccine, deaths are 0.24 per 100,000 population to 0.08 per 100,000 after the vaccine is introduced; and that was taking worst case error margins on the death to case rate. So just how is 0.24 down to 0.08 not a massive decrease?

The death to case ratio shows a continuous decrease with a good fit to exponential decay, in the decade preceding the vaccine's introduction there is no visible decrease in this rate though. It is illogical to assume that a stabilised exponential decay trend would show another significant decrease unless there was a casual factor. It is also worth noting that nowhere in the death to case ratio 'dramatic decrease' was there ever a drop of even 50%, much less the 80% drop in case incidence seen at the vaccine's introduction.

Your wasting your time Bogan, it appears a 5000 fold decrease in deaths is not a massive decrease in the number of deaths for Katman

I'm not ignoring the incident rate.
I'm addressing the claim that the introduction of the vaccine led to a massive decrease in the number dying from the disease.

USA CDC data In the decade before 1963 when a vaccine became available, nearly all children got measles by the time they were 15 years of age. It is estimated 3 to 4 million people in the United States were infected each year. Also each year an estimated 400 to 500 people died, 48,000 were hospitalized, and 4,000 suffered encephalitis (swelling of the brain) from measles.

2015 A woman died this spring due to a measles infection, which is the first reported measles-related death in the U.S. since 2003. VPC

Thats without even taking into account the between 1964 and 2015 the population of the USA rose by over 100,000,000 people
USA population 192 million 1964
USA population 319 million 2015

Worldwide

Measles is a highly contagious, serious disease caused by a virus. In 1980, before widespread vaccination, measles caused an estimated 2.6 million deaths each year.
The disease remains one of the leading causes of death among young children globally, despite the availability of a safe and effective vaccine. Approximately 134 200 people died from measles in 2015 – mostly children under the age of 5.

[Katman]

The death to case ratio shows a continuous decrease with a good fit to exponential decay, in the decade preceding the vaccine's introduction there is no visible decrease in this rate though.

And what do you think would explain the decrease in death to case ratio prior to the introduction of the vaccine?

'Cos it sure can't be due to the vaccine.

[FJRider]

On average humans eat,drink and breathe in 30-50mg of aluminium per day which is 20 times the maximum allowed in vaccines. So what is your safe level in relation to ?

Interesting reading here ...

https://enveurope.springeropen.com/a...190-4715-23-37

[bogan]

And what do you think would explain the decrease in death to case ratio prior to the introduction of the vaccine?

'Cos it sure can't be due to the vaccine.

Healthier population habits, ie, better hygiene and diet. Which in no way means the vaccine didn't cause a massive decrease in incidence or deaths from the disease, both are clearly beneficial.

[Katman]

Healthier population habits, ie, better hygiene and diet.

Thank-you.

That's precisely the point I was making.

[bogan]

Thank-you.

That's precisely the point I was making.

Really?

How does that address this claim then:

I'm addressing the claim that the introduction of the vaccine led to a massive decrease in the number dying from the disease.

Which I've clearly just validated that it indeed did.

[Katman]

And furthermore, statements like "thousands of dead school children from measles outbreaks" is nothing but ridiculous scare-mongering.

The reality is that dying from measles is an extremely uncommon occurrence these days.

[husaberg]

blather..........

I'm not ignoring the incident rate.
I'm addressing the claim that the introduction of the vaccine led to a massive decrease in the number dying from the disease.

USA CDC data In the decade before 1963 when a vaccine became available, nearly all children got measles by the time they were 15 years of age. It is estimated 3 to 4 million people in the United States were infected each year. Also each year an estimated 400 to 500 people died, 48,000 were hospitalized, and 4,000 suffered encephalitis (swelling of the brain) from measles.

2015 A woman died this spring due to a measles infection, which is the first reported measles-related death in the U.S. since 2003. VPC

Thats without even taking into account the between 1964 and 2015 the population of the USA rose by over 100,000,000 people
USA population 192 million 1964
USA population 319 million 2015

Worldwide

Measles is a highly contagious, serious disease caused by a virus. In 1980, before widespread vaccination, measles caused an estimated 2.6 million deaths each year.
The disease remains one of the leading causes of death among young children globally, despite the availability of a safe and effective vaccine. Approximately 134 200 people died from measles in 2015 – mostly children under the age of 5.