The Great Global Warming Swindle

[Jantar]

.....
When the ice sheets slide into the ocean and the methane starts bubbling into the atmosphere, life as we now it is gone! ........

Have you worked out what average Antartic temerature is required for the ice sheets to start sliding into the ocean? Have you compared that to the current average Antatic temperature? What is the rise in temperature required?

Now, using the radiate forcing formula, Have you calculated how much greenhouse gas would have to be in the atmosphere for that to happen?

Maybe you can see that all of mankind would have suffocated first.

[Mikkel]

Well, whether the presence and actions of humans on earth has any impact or not is without question - it has!
Whether the order of magnitude of this impact is significant compared to natural cycles is much harder to answer.

However, I am absolutely certain that if we put our minds to the task we could fuck up this planet quite nicely! Nukes, toxic gas, mutagens, hormones, etc...

Considering that, I think it is very important to ask the opposite questions:

A. Can we fuck up this planet quite nicely if we DON'T put out minds to the task?
B. If so, can we prevent this fuck up from happening if we put in an effort?

Those are not easy questions to answer.

Further, whether climate change is natural or man-induced they are likely to cause a lot of havoc upon the way we live our lives. Wide spread famine could become a very real problem in our lifetime. As such I think it is imperative that we come to understand exactly how this works - but the global weather system is both a huge and a chaotic system to analyse. Just because there are no clear answers today doesn't mean we ought to just throw up our arms and keep on consuming at an ever accelerating rate.

But fat chance that humanity is going to own up and take responsibility for their own actions. Taxation is the most obvious tool to enforce a change in behaviour in any free, capitalism driven society. If indeed there were no real concerns about whether pollution might have a negative impact I don't think you'd see anyone trying to impose e.g. emission restrictions since they are bad for overall productivity.

[SPman]

Have you worked out what average Antartic temerature is required for the ice sheets to start sliding into the ocean? Have you compared that to the current average Antartic temperature? What is the rise in temperature required?

Now, using the radiate forcing formula, Have you calculated how much greenhouse gas would have to be in the atmosphere for that to happen?

Maybe you can see that all of mankind would have suffocated first.

Scientists are already finding water layers under the ice sheets, ice sheets are thinning, and larger and larger chunks are already breaking off into the oceans. Arctic/antarctic sea temps are rising........
It honestly doesn't worry me, but I find the whole "knickers in a twist, we're all gonna die - no we aren't, it's bullshit" show, fascinating.
We're sticking in solar panels for power, ensuring water viability of the property (Wet Aus is getting drier out our way) and watching the show......

[Jantar]

Well, whether the presence and actions of humans on earth has any impact or not is without question - it has!

But the question here is not whether or not humans are affecting the planet, of course we are. The question is whether or not humans are affecting the climate. So far there is no physical evidence for that proposition, only modelled evidence. Yet those same models are known to be unable to even predict what is happening right now, so that evidence is invalid. If the models could be trusted then this next sentence wouldn't even be needed:

Whether the order of magnitude of this impact is significant compared to natural cycles is much harder to answer.

However, I am absolutely certain that if we put our minds to the task we could fuck up this planet quite nicely! Nukes, toxic gas, mutagens, hormones, etc...

Considering that, I think it is very important to ask the opposite questions:

A. Can we fuck up this planet quite nicely if we DON'T put out minds to the task?
B. If so, can we prevent this fuck up from happening if we put in an effort?

Those are not easy questions to answer.

Now you are getting to the point on which there is no disagreement. Yes we can fuck up the planet big time, and industrial pollution is one way we can do it quickly.

Further, whether climate change is natural or man-induced they are likely to cause a lot of havoc upon the way we live our lives. Wide spread famine could become a very real problem in our lifetime. As such I think it is imperative that we come to understand exactly how this works - but the global weather system is both a huge and a chaotic system to analyse. Just because there are no clear answers today doesn't mean we ought to just throw up our arms and keep on consuming at an ever accelerating rate.

Two totally seperate issues. By confusing climate change claims with consumerism we are likely to end up making things worse.

But fat chance that humanity is going to own up and take responsibility for their own actions. Taxation is the most obvious tool to enforce a change in behaviour in any free, capitalism driven society. If indeed there were no real concerns about whether pollution might have a negative impact I don't think you'd see anyone trying to impose e.g. emission restrictions since they are bad for overall productivity.

It is time to set out clearly just what malady we are talking about, climate change or pollution. They are not the same issue.

[Jantar]

Scientists are already finding water layers under the ice sheets, ice sheets are thinning, and larger and larger chunks are already breaking off into the oceans. Arctic/antarctic sea temps are rising........
It honestly doesn't worry me, but I find the whole "knickers in a twist, we're all gonna die - no we aren't, it's bullshit" show, fascinating.
We're sticking in solar panels for power, ensuring water viability of the property (Wet Aus is getting drier out our way) and watching the show......

Of course scientists are finding water layers under the ice sheets. Simple physical chemistry 101 will tell you about the triple point of states of matter, and for any given ice sheet at a given temperature a water layer will exist once the ice reaches a ceratin depth. Nothing magic about that. However I am interested in your assertion that Artic/Antartic sea temperatures are rising, as all the data I've seen shows that they are currently falling. Can you point me to the actual data showing that they are currently rising?

[peasea]

I'm lovin' this thread, it's a good/healthy debate.

I'm no scientist and I do care for mother earth; I have two children and I'd like to think I'm going to leave them something to enjoy by way of a planet but you have to admit, the politicians (especially the green variety) have really jumped on a bandwagon with the whole global warming/climate change thing and I smell a rat.

At times the scientists seem to collect so much freakin' data they not only baffle the plebs with bullshit, they baffle themselves.

I recycle what I can, keep the machines in good tune, wear sunblock and a hat and don't chop down trees, especially when a politician is hanging from one of them. Do your bit, clean up after yourself, turn the tap off when you're brushing your teeth and enjoy all sunsets as you can.

Any one of them might be your last.

Global warming is bullshit, climate change isn't our fault.
Al Gore; fuck off and take Helen and Kyoto with you..........

[Magua]

Yet those same models are known to be unable to even predict what is happening right now, so that evidence is invalid. If the models could be trusted then this next sentence wouldn't even be needed:

I think you'll find that models can model current climate reasonably well. One thing they have not been able to model however is ENSO.

Its another case where the IPCC report doesn't agree with observed facts.

The 1st attachment shows the latest rankings from NASA, and the 2nd attachment is the monthly temperature anomalies ever since MSU satellites were launched, along with a graph of the last 120 months (10 years) data.

Links to where this data came from?

[SPman]

Can you point me to the actual data showing that they are currently rising?

Can't find it at the moment. (I'm meant to be working)
However:- New Scientist, April 25 2008
Arctic ice at its maximum in March, but that maximum is declining by 44,000 km² per year on average, the NSIDC has calculated (see graph, ).What is more, the extent of the ice is only half the picture. Satellite images show that most of the Arctic ice at the moment is thin, young ice that has only been around since last autumn.........What is worrying, though, is the fact that multi-year ice – the stuff that doesn't melt in the summer – is not piling up as fast as Arctic ice generally is melting.

I think the interesting aspect of Global warming, is the age old conundrum of - "the more we know, the less we know". Not all signature events of global warming are necessarily caused by global warming, but it's fun watching the scientists work their butts off trying to work out what is happening.

Global warming is bullshit, climate change isn't our fault.
Al Gore; fuck off and take Helen and Kyoto with you..........

It ain't bullshit, the current episode sure isn't helped by the amount of shit we've been spewing into the environment the last 150 yrs, Al Gore - opportunist, Helen - past her use by date, Kyoto, a neccesary response, hijacked by the corporates to offload blame and make money at our expense, whilst paying lipservice to the whole scenario.

[Magua]

Its another case where the IPCC report doesn't agree with observed facts.

The 1st attachment shows the latest rankings from NASA, and the 2nd attachment is the monthly temperature anomalies ever since MSU satellites were launched, along with a graph of the last 120 months (10 years) data.

More info from NASA, GISS.

"The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998, and the 14 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1990."

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20080116/

[peasea]

[QUOTE=SPman;1591481]


It ain't bullshit, QUOTE]


I disagree, and opinions are what makes this an interesting debate

[Flatcap]

More info from NASA, GISS.

"The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998, and the 14 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1990."

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20080116/

But the measurements began in 1982.

Like saying this May was the warmest May since last June

[Magua]

But the measurements began in 1982.

Like saying this May was the warmest May since last June

"Climatologists at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City have found that 2007 tied with 1998 for Earth's second warmest year in a century."

[Jantar]

I think you'll find that models can model current climate reasonably well. One thing they have not been able to model however is ENSO.

Links to where this data came from?

As ENSO is one of the major drivers of climate, how can it be that the models can model current climate reasonably well? Maybe that is why not a single CCM has predicted the current cooling.

However, the MSU data is available at http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.2

The NASA data was part of a large pdf document that I receved via email. It was too large to upload the entire file so I copied the relevent section to word. Raw data is available from the NASA database, but you will need to register as a climate data user to obtain it.

[Jantar]

But the measurements began in 1982.

Like saying this May was the warmest May since last June

Actual measurements began in late 1978.

[Magua]

The NASA data was part of a large pdf document that I receved via email. It was too large to upload the entire file so I copied the relevent section to word. Raw data is available from the NASA database, but you will need to register as a climate data user to obtain it.

It says GISS on that nasa data. Goddard Institute of Space Studies, yet the info I've found on their website is not consistent with the info you have presented.
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20070208/
Five warmest years since 1890.