From my previous experience in working in road safety there is this trend that is hard to explain but nevertheless there to see. When the price of fuel goes up and stays up for several months at a time, the road toll goes down. It seems that several factors 'might' account for this:
- people tend to drive slower to conserve fuel. Can't be certain this is the case, but it might just be a factor;
- people drive less; and/or
- at least in urban areas, more people tend to take the bus or the train.
We also know that there was a surge in motorbike and scooter sales in 2008 when the price of fuel went up and stayed up. It was this surge in sales which led to more bikes and scooters on the roads that saw an adverse trend in motorbike fatalities, at least in absolute numbers. When these numbers are converted to relative, ie number of fatalities per 10,000 riders the stats are not that much worse than for tin top accidents.
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