How much longer do we have for private motor vehicles?

[racefactory]

As we pass the crest of peak oil production and consumption levels yet continue to grow; how much longer is the future of private motor vehicles as we know them?

I think people will look back at us wondering how absurd it was that all around the world people used to drive 1500kg and larger cars with a single occupant, often jammed in traffic, for a short distance. If you think about it, most of the fuel is used just to shift the car, not the person inside it.

With oil prices rising incessantly, emergency reserves being released and no replaceable solution in near sight, how long before daily private vehicles are a thing of the past? 10 years? 15?

I'm thinking this is going to be my last bike and it's going to see it all out to the end.

[Brian d marge]

Ive already covered my Arse ... Yes I know its an Enfield , but a diesel engine drops straight in ( almost ) ....and its rego'ed as a 350 ...

Was watching a doc on " A farm without oil " very interesting , top bloke said 2013 decline starts .. and by the end of the century , oil gone

So , While I may not be here , I hope to future proof my two kids ...if they ( the experts ) are right that is

Lets see the idiots in the beehive tax my potato crop !! now tricky dicky , will try and sting me on the rego , ..........but it isnt going to be as bad a CBR 1000rr ...

Stephen

[James Deuce]

Yes. The peak oil production myth. We've passed the easy to extract oil peak. The oil isn't running out it's just going to get more and more expensive to extract from the media the remaining oil stocks are suspended in. It isn't transport that's going to be most affected by rising costs, it's going to be clothing, food, electricity (though we use less oil than most for cheap electricity production) and just about everything else you use on a daily basis and take for granted. That's the killer. Not vehicles.

It's your lifestyle that will change dramatically, more so than the incidental ability to travel greater than walking distance where you want, when you want.

[marty]

As we pass the crest of peak oil production and consumption levels yet continue to grow; how much longer is the future of private motor vehicles as we know them?

I think people will look back at us wondering how absurd it was that all around the world people used to drive 1500kg and larger cars with a single occupant, often jammed in traffic, for a short distance. If you think about it, most of the fuel is used just to shift the car, not the person inside it.

With oil prices rising incessantly, emergency reserves being released and no replaceable solution in near sight, how long before daily private vehicles are a thing of the past? 10 years? 15?

I'm thinking this is going to be my last bike and it's going to see it all out to the end.

reliable links please for peak oil information. i am very interested in this phenomena.

[sinfull]

reliable links please for peak oil information. i am very interested in this phenomena.

[p.dath]

I think it will be at least a generation before we see a serious shift in the way we live our lives due to the cost of crude oil rising.

[fokky]

OMG...is it 1978?Didnt the world bleat and panic then?''Oh no petrol is running out,lets cut our throats''As far as I can see
[the mobil over the road]there is still petrol today,worrying about shit that hasnt happened yet has never served me well

[Scuba_Steve]

I do find it funny tho, prices are higher than ever & oils still "running out" (50yrs later) yet we have more gas guzzling SUV's on our roads than we have ever had.

[Banditbandit]

1 We do not have the transport infrastructure to move people around without private vehicles .. and Auckland especially is hell bent on keeping it that way.

2 As long as it's more than 20 years I don't give a flying fuck .. I will be past 70 by then and probably won't be riding or driving ... if I'm alive.

[rainman]

how much longer is the future of private motor vehicles as we know them?

The vehicles themselves will linger on for a while I guess, but usage will drop for financial reasons, just like last time we had high prices - motorway volumes fell. And as noted below, the impact is not only the fuel but the secondary effects - employment, food, etc. If you double fuel prices I'll still be able to get to work, just that my work probably will have collapsed in the ensuing depression.

Yes. The peak oil production myth. We've passed the easy to extract oil peak. The oil isn't running out it's just going to get more and more expensive to extract from the media the remaining oil stocks are suspended in. It isn't transport that's going to be most affected by rising costs, it's going to be clothing, food, electricity (though we use less oil than most for cheap electricity production) and just about everything else you use on a daily basis and take for granted. That's the killer. Not vehicles.

It's your lifestyle that will change dramatically, more so than the incidental ability to travel greater than walking distance where you want, when you want.

I'm confused, Jim. You call this a myth but then quite succinctly restate the problem. Yes, the oil isn't running out, that hasn't been the view of credible peak oilers since forever. But, once irrefutably past peak, life does change quite a bit, and the PO community has been warning us to address this risk for ages.

reliable links please for peak oil information. i am very interested in this phenomena.

http://www.theoildrum.com/ is a good place to start but can get pretty technical. They had a introductory series somewhere which I'll try to find.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY is an hour long lecture that will explain lots and should be mandatory viewing for all humans.
Richard Branson: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...peak-oil-close
Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the IEA: http://newswatch.nationalgeographic....top-economist/. The IEA World Energy Outlook publications also point to some clear problems.
UK Govt PO Task Force: http://peakoiltaskforce.net/http:/pe...with-business/
There are some hysterical folks out there so by all means filter what you read. But it's pretty unambiguous that the problem is more here and now than in the distant future, and that the impacts will be severe.
Of course whether that makes anyone change anything is another matter. Look at the number of climate change deniers, despite the mounting evidence...

I think it will be at least a generation before we see a serious shift in the way we live our lives due to the cost of crude oil rising.

Why do you think this? The evidence isn't with you.

worrying about shit that hasnt happened yet has never served me well

Good ostrich impression! Wait... you actually think like that?

I do find it funny tho, prices are higher than ever & oils still "running out" (50yrs later) yet we have more gas guzzling SUV's on our roads than we have ever had.

Oil's not running out, there's about as much left as we've used to date. Problem is it's the hard stuff to get at, and also we can't grow our economies (much, or as easily) if we don't have growing supples of cheap oil. There's a good correlation between oil prices and recessions. http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/...cks_and_2.html

As long as it's more than 20 years I don't give a flying fuck .. I will be past 70 by then and probably won't be riding or driving ... if I'm alive.

Do you have kids, or grandkids, or even know any kids you give a flying fuck about? Your expressed view is remarkably close to some components of sociopathy.

[racefactory]

Yes, it's not in the least about the stuff in the earth running out, it's about our ability to extract it at the rate we consume it. In other words, we can't now get it out of the ground as fast as we're burning it.

For many people here, for most of their lifetime supply has outstripped demand but now it's on the decline. I think we face great cultural changes- less materialistic, individualistic societies and a return to smaller, local communities where more meaningful relationships between people are restored. Since 1859 we have based our lives around this substance and now we will have to change. It's quite an exciting transition in history that I'm anxious to be part of.

Watch this Colin Campbell interview, he's the man. Great to listen to!

[Big Dave]

I think the electric vehicle era will be pretty good.

[Indiana_Jones]

As long as I can still drink beer and listen to my LPs I'm happy

-Indy

[Vacquer0]

http://www.brammo.com/home/

Better than nothing.

[James Deuce]

I'm confused, Jim. You call this a myth but then quite succinctly restate the problem. Yes, the oil isn't running out, that hasn't been the view of credible peak oilers since forever. But, once irrefutably past peak, life does change quite a bit, and the PO community has been warning us to address this risk for ages.

It's nowhere near past peak. Speaking to my petrologist brother-in-law the issue isn't that we're runnin gout of oil. We find more and more of the stuff all the time, the problem is developing cheap, clean technologies to remove it from whatever medium it is stored in. We've most of the easily accessible oil fields mapped. The next series of explorations starting up is oil sands and shale bearing oil, both of which require very different methods to extract than the up until now free flowing stuff that can be pumped.

The Great Australian Bight is a massive oil field for instance, it's just that the oil is stored in shale.

The myth I'm referring to is that the oil is running out. It isn't, what may run out IF we don't develop the technologies to extract oil from these other media is supply. Supply will cease to match demand.