How much longer do we have for private motor vehicles?

[Brian d marge]

But that's the point: humans overall forge ahead and life gets better. The societies which fail do so because other more vigorous groups overwhelm them.

Either Grey power is receiving the Viagra , or Mutton Exports will increase

Stephen

[jonbuoy]

I think the electric vehicle era will be pretty good.

Hybrids for sure, technology is only getting started. Some of the 0-60 times are getting towards the supercar leagues. Jaguars turbine diesel electric looks pretty amazing. Most new Cruise Ships and Mega Yachts are diesel electric as well. All battery is going to work for a while yet. Electric scooters are already appearing here.

[racefactory]

Mmmm...the Chinese experiment on population control has failed. For one thing it only applies to Han chinese, not other ethnic groups, which effectively means only 36% of their population. Furthermore people don't like it or obey it so the population continues to grow.

What? 36%? Where are you getting this from? Basically all the population are Han Chinese, the other 56 or so ethnic minorities are collectively small in comparison.

[rainman]

But that's the point: humans overall forge ahead and life gets better. The societies which fail do so because other more vigorous groups overwhelm them.

That form of social evolution only works in aggregate as long as it's individual components of the global society that are taking a beating. If the energy source underpinning all of our enterprise shrinks, then we all don't prosper, overall. Ironically it may be the clusters of more traditional, localised agriculture and trade that prove to be better adapted to the new world than our "modern" highly globalised version, but that depends quite a bit on climate change, I think.

Human civilisation will most likely continue, of course, but nothing says it has to be better than we have it today. It's entirely feasible that we almost all take a step or two back from where we are today. And by all, I mean, not as many of us as there are today.

Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded- here and there, now and then- are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people.

Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty. This is known as "bad luck."

Lay off the Ayn Rand, dude... it's not good for your mental health

[Big Dave]

Hybrids for sure, technology is only getting started. Some of the 0-60 times are getting towards the supercar leagues. Jaguars turbine diesel electric looks pretty amazing. Most new Cruise Ships and Mega Yachts are diesel electric as well. All battery is going to work for a while yet. Electric scooters are already appearing here.

Most of the freighters I've been on too. Big Pratt and Witney turbine running a generator in the funnel, cabled to big electric 'fans' with a long drive shaft, aft.

[Ocean1]

Lay off the Ayn Rand, dude... it's not good for your mental health

Heinlein?

Same dude who wrote: Your enemy is never a villain in his own eyes. Remember this, it may allow you to make a friend of him. If not you can kill him without hate.

[BMWST?]

its much much more than just personal transport.Think of how farms will work,how heavy transport will work,construction etc etc,,,,it all depends on diesel

[rainman]

...without checking.

You must have a pretty good memory..

Heinlein's an entertaining read, but in today's world he's a bit simplistic.

Of course it would be crazy to deny the role of motivated individuals in creating change. But then I also acknowledge that the optimal structure for maintaining strong and stable societies, able to weather much of what life chucks at us, is the small community. It's a proven pattern over millennia.

Too much focus on individualism only, with no value for the whole, is just unbalanced and does not recognise the whole story. Time we grew up and adopted a broader view. The tribe without a leader may be in trouble, but less so than the leader without a tribe.

[Ocean1]

You must have a pretty good memory..

Not particularly, I googled what I did remember and just c/p'd the first return.

Of course it would be crazy to deny the role of motivated individuals in creating change. But then I also acknowledge that the optimal structure for maintaining strong and stable societies, able to weather much of what life chucks at us, is the small community. It's a proven pattern over millennia.

Too much focus on individualism only, with no value for the whole, is just unbalanced and does not recognise the whole story. Time we grew up and adopted a broader view. The tribe without a leader may be in trouble, but less so than the leader without a tribe.

Tribes. What we're evolved for. We don't have 'em any more. Tribes allow individual expression. They kill anyone that threatens them, stranger or tribe member.

We've got nations, they don't work that way and real humans find they don't work for them. No real problem, any organisation thayt fails to cull the dross and maintain the wall won't last.

It'll probably take me and you down with it, but what survives might work.

[Winston001]

What? 36%? Where are you getting this from? Basically all the population are Han Chinese, the other 56 or so ethnic minorities are collectively small in comparison.

The Chinese Government.

Less than 40 percent of the population is restricted by the family planning policy to having one child, a senior official with the National Population and Family Planning Commission said yesterday.
While popularly referred to as the "one child policy", the rule actually restricts just 35.9 percent of the population to having one child, Yu Xuejun, a spokesman with the commission, said in a Webcast on the government's website (www.gov.cn).

[Woodman]

Yeah I reckon we are headed to a more village based self sufficient future. How it is now is not sustainable, but hey what a ride we have had for the last 100 years or so yee fucken haa

[superman]

A thoughtful question.

Tell me: in humanity's recent history (say, 2000 years), when has technology failed to provide a solution? When has our quality of life ever fallen?

There was that huge copper shortage in the 1970s. Low and behold substitutes, and even better things came about such as fibre-optics.

[rainman]

There was that huge copper shortage in the 1970s. Low and behold substitutes, and even better things came about such as fibre-optics.

What do you think will substitute for oil?

[davereid]

There was that huge copper shortage in the 1970s. Low and behold substitutes, and even better things came about such as fibre-optics.

Yes, but your point is valid.

We will run out of copper, cadmium, and lithium to make our electric cars from long before we run out of the coal we will be using to charge their batteries.

New Zealand has a high percentage of electricity generated from renewable sources.

But every electric car that enters service will add demand that will be met from our non renewable resources, as the renewable ones are already fully committed.

And that electric car uses rare metals, dug up by a diesel powered digger, transported to to coal fired foundry in a diesel truck, and then delivered all around the would in oil powered ships.

The hybrid car is even worse. Just like the batteries in my laptop, by 5-7 years of age, they offer little storage.

They still weigh 500kg, so in NZ with an average fleet age of 13 years, a hybrid is likely to spend 2/3rds of its life as an underpowered petrol car carting around 500kg of unusable waste.

Maybe banning electric or hybrid vehicles would be a good first step in saving the planet.

[Indiana_Jones]

Yes, but your point is valid.

.............

Maybe banning electric or hybrid vehicles would be a good first step in saving the planet.

I've been thinking this for some time. People don't look at the bigger picture (only human I guess) and think they're saving the world by putting in less gas at the pump; Forgetting the fact that when the car gets wrecked it's gonna have a shit load of horrible battery crap to be dealt with etc

-Indy