A motorcycle industry crisis? Your thoughts

[Ender EnZed]

The other issue that may be the next thing on the radar is the next generation of people who are driven by there on line life, these people worry all of the motor industry as they have no interest in cars or bikes and would happily drive (if that is the right word) a self driving car as this would free up more time for them to surf the net. They also have no interest in driving or riding for the pleasure of it, for them a car is purely transport and they also do less miles as they do more of there transactions on line meaning they have to travel less. Companies like mini have recognised that some of the older section of this group do drive at present and are targeting them on line. Current primary school students who have grown up with both a computer at home and pretty much unlimited data at a good speed due to only knowing broadband look at vehicles as transport not as something to excel to. There status symbol is the newest fastest new smartphone, tablet or the next must have electronic gadget. As bikes and cars get more expensive to run due to fuel cost, rego and road charges tolls etc and with emission controls adding to vehicle cost this may push more and more younger people more on line which will have a large impact on all of the motor industry, and as bikes are a smaller part they will show the impact first.

This is quite relevant.

There will come a time, conservatively within the next 10 years in NZ, when interacting with a smart phone is the norm for NZers prior to gaining a drivers license. What we (literally everyone reading this) perceived as "travel" time growing up, they will perceive as "free/internet" time. That's gotta make a difference somewhere along the way.

[Brett]

Brett - I think there are three quite different groups which need to be considered.

1. Older (choke) mature types who grew up on BSA 500s, Norton Commandos, and Honda 750/4s. The aphelion of this age was the Z1 900 Kawasaki. Or a Benelli or Ducati.

Still, most of us started on excellent machines like the Honda 200 Alan refers to or the XL175. Today we ride BMWs, HD, Ducatis, or scorching Japanese miracles.

2. Young people (NZ) want to get from A to B in a city and don't have much money and/or possibly they like the idea of motorcycling. So they get a scooter and enjoy themselves. Or they buy a trail bike and have lots of fun at weekends - but it is a toy, nothing more. The girlfriend isn't interested so they also get a car.

3. Those people living in Africa, China, South America, India, and Asia for whom a car is a dream. There are about 3 billion of them. They buy small bikes because that is what they can afford and thus represent a huge market.

The 1 and 2 groups are small. If motorcycle manufacturers are going to survive they will supply the growing Third World markets.

Incidentally when I was in India, Royal Enfield bikes drew admirers. They are way beyond the average people.

You're 3 groups make sense and I agree. They HAVE to look to emerging markets for new growth, as I mentioned earlier, I had to keep this removed from my analysis (for this paper) due to the massive task that undertaking an analysis framed around "the future of the motorcycle industry" would entail. Would run into several books I think! However, I think in terms of real -world application it is impossible to ignore. Where there are boys with money, there will also ultimately be a market for bikes that "go fast" and "look cool". It's only a matter of time before Indians are starting to purchase larger capacity bikes such as sports bikes, larger cruisers etc. It's human boy nature isn't it? (Must go faster!)

[McFatty1000]

Seeing as kinda I fit into the younger riders group:

The main obstacle I see/saw was the rego cost - I already had a car so it was going to be the big extra for the year. Worked out that if I rode my bike 3 times out of every 7 times I would have taken my car, the rego would be paid just with the saved fuel. Anything else was a bonus. (Doesn't work with the bike I have now but it got me past the initial phase)

My Mum was pretty adamant that I wasn't getting a motorbike - shes far more open with it now but the danger part plays a big part in my non riding friends not getting bikes still.

I found the biggest selling point for me though were the christchurch earthquakes and the traffic jams that occurred then. On a bike, the ability to get through stalled traffic and down broken streets is a huge peace of mind thing. Thats just me, but it has parallels to heavy traffic cities too

But it is true that lots of people my age don't drive cars even, so its likely a whole generational trend rather than just the one market

[Ender EnZed]

That said, I don't think you can separate leisure motorcycling from utility motorcycling.

I disagree (in NZ anyway), based on my own inconclusive anecdotal data. Out of x(>100) people I can think of I know 2 commuter motorcyclists. I'm a 21 yr old 99% leisure motorcyclist and I've spent ~$14K (including a ~$9k bike) in the last 12 months at my local dealer. If I'm a singularity then motorcycling in NZ is probably fucked.

[Ender EnZed]

Brett - I think there are three quite different groups which need to be considered.

1. Older (choke) mature types who grew up on BSA 500s, Norton Commandos, and Honda 750/4s. The aphelion of this age was the Z1 900 Kawasaki. Or a Benelli or Ducati.

These people are mostly dead or already own plenty of bikes. They're not going to contribute to the economy in any significant way.

[Winston001]

Ok Brett, if your research is going to be make any sense then you'll have to limit it to New Zealand. I'm sure you can get relevant data from similar places such as the UK, USA, France, Germany, and Italy. In other words, mature economies with wealthy older buyers.

For what its worth, I think motorcycles in these countries fall into the enthusiast category. Folk who love bikes.

An extreme example is the wrist watch. Breitling, Rolex, Tag Huer, Patek Philip etc. There is no logical reason in the world to buy these when you can pick up a watch for sod all at the supermarket. Nevertheless they sell and the manufacturers survive.

Thus it is so for Harley-Davidson, Ducati, Triumph, and Aprilia. Enthusiasts with spare money will buy these because they value them as pieces of fine machinery capable of an extraordinary experience. Motorcycling has become a very narrow niche.

Just out of interest: the English long bow is regarded as the most effective weapon in history. Try and buy one today. Even so, there are clubs of enthusiasts all over the world who build bows and seek out the best wood. It could become the same with high power motorcycles.

[Ender EnZed]

Ok Brett, if your research is going to be make any sense then you'll have to limit it to New Zealand. I'm sure you can get relevant data from similar places such as the UK, USA, France, Germany, and Italy. In other words, mature economies with wealthy older buyers.

For what its worth, I think motorcycles in these countries fall into the enthusiast category. Folk who love bikes.

An extreme example is the wrist watch. Breitling, Rolex, Tag Huer,Patek Philip etc. There is no logical reason in the world to buy these when you can pick up a watch for sod all at the supermarket. Nevertheless they sell and the manufacturers survive.

Thus it is so for Harley-Davidson, Ducati, Triumph, and Aprilia. Enthusiasts with spare money will buy these because they value them as pieces of fine machinery capable of an extraordinary experience. Motorcycling has become a very narrow niche.

Absolutely.

The leisure market might be a small market but this is the direction it's going in.

Toys. Make better toys.

[jonbuoy]

Safety has to be a factor - we used to have a more "accidents can happen - no one can live forever" attitude. Now we have become obsessed with trying to live forever in a cocoon of health and safety. Cars have made huge leaps in safety - look at the crashes people can now walk away from - other than ABS and TCS and slightly better helmets no real progress has or can be made on bikes. 99% of mothers would have a heart attack if little Johnny now said he wanted a motorbike.

Performance of cars has got closer to bikes too.

[bosslady]

You've just identified a good business opportunity...why not try and fill it?

Haha, I aint no seamstress.

[Ocean1]

These people are mostly dead or already own plenty of bikes. They're not going to contribute to the economy in any significant way.

Ya think?

Wiki:
Baby Boomers control over 80% of personal financial assets and more than 50% of discretionary spending power., July 2011 They are responsible for more than half of all consumer spending, buy 77% of all prescription drugs, 61% of OTC medication and 80% of all leisure travel.

Now, what's left of your economy when this lot retire over the next couple of years? I'd say you're fuckt.

[Berg]

I agree that bike riders seem to be an aging population and also that bikes are often now perceived as toys for the rich and those with a death wish by a society that likes to "cotton wool" its inhabitants.
A way forward I have suggested but failed to gain any sensible response from is a borrowing of an American idea where secondary schools have a class dedicated to driver education.
Why could NZ schools not have a class for driver/rider safety, experience and basic maintenance? Surely money spent on this would be gained back in the future with better trained, more aware younger drivers entering or roads. Another bonus of this would be the ability to sent a problem "adult" driver back to "driving school" for some reeducation.
This way younger possible riders could be introduced to the pleasures of two wheels in a safe controlled environment with the bonus that they will also be more "rider aware" when they hit the highways in cars.

[roogazza]

I have been riding for 30 + years and have been working in the motorcycle industry for over 25 years in several different positions retail, wholesale both bikes and gear and as a mechanic, and have watched the industry shrink every year since the early 90's. Yes it is in crisis.

Bikes are toys, they are no longer transport haven't been since the cheep jap imports flooded into NZ. A reliable dry warm car can be bought for 3-4 thousand the same price as a entry level bike. The licence is harder to get than a car takes longer, the bike costs more to rego all done by a government trying to dissuade people from riding bikes.

In short there is nothing the average person can do to get more people on bikes, higher fuel prices do not get more people on bikes as there are to many other issues standing in the way. Most people once they find out about the licence issues and the fact they need to spend at least one thousand on gear if they want to ride every day drop the idea of getting a bike. Higher fuel prices just bring old bikers out of the woodwork, good excuse to con the wife into letting them get a bike again (but dear think of the money we can save on petrol if you let me buy a GSXR1000)

Most of the importers don't bring in what I would class as a commuter bike, most have dabbled on and off but they never sell well as there not "cool" so they go back to what they know will sell in a shrinking market.

The age issue that you speak of is a larger issue than most people realise as the 60 + riders are the people with the last of the disposable income, the 30 to 50 age group still usually have mortgages and out standing debits that the older group didn't have when they where the same age. This pushes the age out for the non riders in the younger group to return to riding meaning that there numbers will be less, yet another nail in the coffin of the industry.

As for the question you posed "Harley Davidson how do they engage with younger riders" they tried and failed. It was called buell and Vrod both which have failed to bring the customers they wanted. Harley are so tied to the baby boomers that they may fall with them.

Even if you look at the trends in the developing countries bike numbers are falling in percentage terms, Tata cars in India have been taking bike sales for years with there Tata Nano. if the car is similar in cost to a bike it will win out as pure transport. Most people that purely want transport will go for the cheapest most convent option. Cost is what use to bring a lot of riders to bikes in NZ who would then find out how much fun bikes where and then would go on to larger bikes and more riding, these conditions no longer apply to the NZ market and I would be surprised if they ever will again.

The only reason we have a bike industry in NZ is thanks to the fact that NZ farmers own shit loads of quads that the bike manufactures happen to make. If the quads where taken away (it could happen the US banned three wheelers and ACC keeps looking at the injury rate on quads) I believe that most of the importers would be gone in a couple of years.

The other issue that may be the next thing on the radar is the next generation of people who are driven by there on line life, these people worry all of the motor industry as they have no interest in cars or bikes and would happily drive (if that is the right word) a self driving car as this would free up more time for them to surf the net. They also have no interest in driving or riding for the pleasure of it, for them a car is purely transport and they also do less miles as they do more of there transactions on line meaning they have to travel less. Companies like mini have recognised that some of the older section of this group do drive at present and are targeting them on line. Current primary school students who have grown up with both a computer at home and pretty much unlimited data at a good speed due to only knowing broadband look at vehicles as transport not as something to excel to. There status symbol is the newest fastest new smartphone, tablet or the next must have electronic gadget. As bikes and cars get more expensive to run due to fuel cost, rego and road charges tolls etc and with emission controls adding to vehicle cost this may push more and more younger people more on line which will have a large impact on all of the motor industry, and as bikes are a smaller part they will show the impact first.

That's a bloody good overview I reckon SpannerSpinner.
I'm probably slightly different but basically the same. From leaving school as an apprentice MMechanic I always had both car and bike and still have 50 years later .
(Also had 54 cars and 50 bikes! ) Lots I was sort of dealing and repairing. I worked hard.
I felt things dying off in NZ from the nineties but hey I count myself so lucky to have seen the boom years both on the road and competition.
Pull up the ladder I'm happy LOL.
Who knows what will happen, but this still applies,
If you have to explain it they just don't get it.

[oneofsix]

Ya think?

Wiki:
Baby Boomers control over 80% of personal financial assets and more than 50% of discretionary spending power., July 2011 They are responsible for more than half of all consumer spending, buy 77% of all prescription drugs, 61% of OTC medication and 80% of all leisure travel.

Now, what's left of your economy when this lot retire over the next couple of years? I'd say you're fuckt.

Invest in old folks leisure industry, retirement and funeral homes.

Noted the number of females interested in bikes in the younger generation. They are have seen for the ability to make it through traffic and some support in this would be appreciated, I noted the Roadcraft Nothingham even splits and filters on his safety videos whereas in NZ it is questionable.

Saw the article not long ago that if only 10% of the current caged drivers switched to bikes the traffic problems of Auckland and Wellington wouldn't exist, surely this is worth the Government, local and national, investing in instead of the local councils sending the parking wardens out to hound bikes parked in otherwise unused spaces. What's wrong with marking those place where you can't fit a car as a bike park, each side of the fire hydrant, the space between the last car park and the corner etc?

I think it is time to focus on the commuter market more. The Can-Am etc are going to cater for the babyboomers as they die off. Cars are going to become more like personally owned public transport where you, the owner, don't control the drive. Bikes as personal transport are going to become the independent thinks reaction to the grey sameness of auto-drive cars.

Thats my 2c spent.

[danchop]

ever noticed how small toddlers are in awe of seeing a motorcycle anywhere?
1975
look mum,motorbike! motorbike! (shits his cotton nappy in excitement)
yes johnny your dad might buy you one when your older
2010
look janet,motorbike! motorbike! (trained not to shit while out in public)
yes stormspout it is,but they are not safe,and ill get your stepdad to show you some articles on the net later about it

everythings about safety these days,car manufacturerers main drive now seems to be improving safety on new models,i took my mother to look at ravs at giltraps the other day,and the main focus of the salesman was every fart arse safety feature it had.bikes dont have this advantage
and landcorp announced the other day it is not allowing quads on thier new farms,so another kick in the pants for dealers

[willytheekid]

My thoughts...


Kids now days are soft cocks!...hence they don't ride motorcycles!

...and Im just fine with that.


Besides, the US did a study recently in regards to the decline of youth getting there license's...to fuckin soft to even drive a car!
http://adage.com/article/digital/dig...ulture/144155/

...fuckem!, they can sit at the back of the bus and play with there iphone19!, Us old farts can fly the flag till these little pooftas finally get sufficated by there own bubblewrap safety jackets!

This Gen Whhhhhy? lot is fucked! ...lets focus on the next generation I say