Are New Zealand Police inadvertently causing the road toll to increase?

[gjm]

Has the police presence on roads increased? If so - good.

More police on the orads means (theoretically) an improved chance of apprehending those who are unable or unwilling to drive in a safe or appropriate fashion. Of course - if the increased police presence is aimed at apprehending more vehicles travelling at a tiny percentage over the speed limit, then the investment is not targeted at safety, but at revenue generation. There will be rooms full of maths wizards and accountancy staff calculating the break-even point to ensure maximum return.

The problem is not speeding per se, but is dangerous driving, including inappropriate use of speed. This has been investigated and proven, time and again, worldwide.

[Ocean1]

I do believe you have hit the nail on the head. It is not possible to measure such events without altering the outcome. That is why we get so many unexpected negative results from making what should be positive changes.

Bit tongue-in-cheek, there. Probably more to do with risk homeostasis.

Put us all in sponge rubber cars limited to 10kph and your morning commute would look like a demolition derby.

[speedpro]

I have to take issue with your maths. I believe you will find that there is statistical evidence that if there are only two cars on the roads in NZ they will collide, I believe this happened on a narrow bridge in fact, when there only two cars in NZ. BTW, speed was a factor as both cars were moving, all be it at little more than walking pace.

Two cars, there was obviously a race going on.

Either that or they spent most of their time on an Auckland motorway travelling at 83.2KmH side by side

[FJRider]

Has the police presence on roads increased? If so - good.

There still isn't one around .. when you'd like to see one ...

[bluninja]

This is New Zealand. If you like the traffic rules/policy in other countries ... move there. Thanks to the driving standard and attitude of NZ drivers ... I certainly can't see any policy change in NZ ... anytime soon.

When the going gets tough the tough get going....to another country huh?
The grass is not always greener on the other side.....New Zealand has great grass

[FJRider]

When the going gets tough the tough get going....to another country huh?
The grass is not always greener on the other side.....New Zealand has great grass

I'm glad the grass is great ... I don't smoke myself ...

[Milts]

Here's a doctor and public health researcher talking about a few of the conditions in which lowering the speed limit increases the road toll:

[R650R]

Statistics and probability is just brain porn for maths junkies, in reality at a personal level there is often no change.

Eg if I buy more lotto tickets and spend more time in the lotto shop theoretically I should increase my chances of winning.... but it doesn't. Just ask problem gamblers at the local pokie lounge how that maths is all working out for them...

Today I followed an accident waiting to happen over the Napier Taupo road. A very small person, possibly female was riding a large cruiser and was absolutely hopeless at not just corners but slight bends in the road. The riding was so bad I don't think this rider should have left the city limits. Lucky being a biker I could see early something was wrong with the riding style and hung back in the cage giving plenty of room til safe to pass.
But lets say that person made an error and crossed the centre line or fell, all that matters then is the other road users speeds....

[Jantar]

Statistics and probability is just brain porn for maths junkies, in reality at a personal level there is often no change.

Eg if I buy more lotto tickets and spend more time in the lotto shop theoretically I should increase my chances of winning.... but it doesn't. Just ask problem gamblers at the local pokie lounge how that maths is all working out for them...........

But it does increase your chances of winning. If you buy 1 ticket (a single line) you have approximately 1 chance in 42 of winning a prize and 1 chance in 16,000,000 of winning first prize. Buy 2 tickets and you will almost double your chance. Buy enough tickets (all different of course) and you can guarantee to win division 1. The problem is that it will cost you much more than you will win.

Probability studies do work, otherwise the lotteries commission would go bust and the gamblers would win.

[FJRider]

Probability studies do work, otherwise the lotteries commission would go bust and the gamblers would win.

You can still reduce the odds of your dieing on the road. ...


But ... STILL die on the road.




Death and taxes are life's only certainty ...

[Jantar]

.....
Today I followed an accident waiting to happen over the Napier Taupo road. A very small person, possibly female was riding a large cruiser and was absolutely hopeless at not just corners but slight bends in the road. The riding was so bad I don't think this rider should have left the city limits. Lucky being a biker I could see early something was wrong with the riding style and hung back in the cage giving plenty of room til safe to pass.
But lets say that person made an error and crossed the centre line or fell, all that matters then is the other road users speeds....

No, what matters is not speed but following distance. You stated that "I could see early something was wrong with the riding style and hung back in the cage" so even you did the right thing e.g. increased following distance.

[Smifffy]

If they were in the slightest bit interested in slowing folks down then:

a] They would sit in their patrol cars at the start of a passing lane, not at the end. People would see the car and slow down/ refrain from passing at speed
b] Park the camera vehicles in the open instead of behind bushes, in dips and around corners, for the same reason as above
c] Continuously broadcast on their detectors so that people with detector would slow down

Of course if they did all that then revenues would drop, and quite probably so would average speeds, and possibly so would the road toll.

Still, easier just not to speed eh?

[mstriumph]

I always wondered if you could measure chaotic events without altering the outcome.

And if you'd ever know...

This has got to do with that bloody cat again, hasn't it .... You and SPman both ... I am sooooo sick of that bloody cat I feel like strangling it anyway if it's still alive when I open the box ...

(that's if there IS a box - if there ever WAS a cat - if ...........) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOYyCHGWJq4

I am a logical person - the only definitive info I get from any of this is that Schrodinger was NOT a cat person. Meow.

[mstriumph]

"Are New Zealand Police inadvertently causing the road toll to increase? "

the only word I'd query (both there and here) is 'inadvertently'

[Jantar]

This has got to do with that bloody cat again, hasn't it .... You and SPman both ... I am sooooo sick of that bloody cat I feel like strangling it anyway if it's still alive when I open the box ...

(that's if there IS a box - if there ever WAS a cat - if ...........) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOYyCHGWJq4

I am a logical person - the only definitive info I get from any of this is that Schrodinger was NOT a cat person. Meow.

Only partially. The real question is why Pavlov gave the cat to Schrodinger in the first place. What was the chance that Pavlov's dog would start salivating everytime it saw the cat?