Ok. So now we're here, this is my thinking on why if I'd been able to vote, I would have voted stay.
First off the UK has traditionally had influence way beyond it's population and resources on a world stage. As a small island with only 50-60 million population over the last few decades and no significant natural resources then why was it on the UN security council, why part of the G7, and have one of three key financial markets based there? So there was a logic that it was de-facto captain of team Europe now we are all part of a global economy, market, knowledge base. No matter how strong an individual is, compared to a team it is weak. Jonah Lomu or Saint Ritchie at their peaks were individually amazing, but in a game of them versus the local school second XV they would have been hammered. Assuming the EU act in self interest (and why wouldn't they) they will step up to make trade with EU zone and the rest of the world easy and make trade for the UK into the EU markets hard through trade tariffs.
Rubbish. Read the Lisbon treaty. The UK is a net exporter of oil. Jona & Ritchie would not have been a success in a team of one legged blind players. Europe needs to trade with the UK and will not do anything to hamper this lifeblood. The UK can decide to stay with in the Eurozone, like Norway, or can now chose with whom to trade, including NZ. The lower pound will help immensely.
For many parts of the Uk there is significant EU investment into disadvantaged areas. including Sunderland with their Nissan plant. So I see it likely that in the next few years there will be an import duty on cars into Europe, and so the factories in the UK will gradually be wound down. So less jobs, and more expensive imported goods for those in the UK due to exchange rates.
Nissan's plant in Sunderalnd will not be wound down, neither will Honda's plant in Swindon. The UK can still export cars to Europe, without tarrifs. I would however agree that new plans are less likely to be built. Yes, things will be more expensive for a while, however this will change and the currency will become stronger, once the initial turmoil has settled. The UK puts a lot more into the EU than it receives back.
A lack of opportunities for skilled labour and for UK based business to trade across Europe. At a time when the rest of the free world is embracing the advantages from global trade, the Uk is now entering a period where there is at least uncertainty in what they can do and with who.
The UK can trade with whomever it wants. As a net importer, tarrifs would prove counter productive. The uncertainty won't last long.
Note that Immigration was a bit of a red herring. Despite the Nigel Farrage rhetoric, then when pushed the out campaign did not say that they were going to substantially reduce immigration. Despite what is now being claimed by Winston over here. The UK has been in natural population decline for many years. Ie the population actually reducing as a result of more deaths than births. Immigration is the only thing that's increasing the population. Why is this an issue. Well look at the ages of people. The 'Natural' population, as with NZ, is getting older. And so the number of retired is going from a minority to a majority. In order to have the workforce to provide medical care, to stopck the supermarkets, to earn the taxes to pay the pensions, there needs to be some young people acquired from somewhere. So even now there's an exit from the EU, then there is as much, possibly more, of a need to bring in younger immigrants. Just as NZ has that same policy.
I never saw immigration as a key issue. Economic migrats taking the piss out of the lucrative welfare system, sending cash back to their homelands (not making the UK their homeland) were already being addressed with new laws. The problem I saw here was many UK workers changing from 9-5 x 5 working, to queueing up with migrants to see if they would have any work or not. Winston Peters is irrelevant and well past his sell by date. Not sure how old he is however he can't have too much longer.
The talk of Scotland and northern Ireland leaving the UK is interesting. Whilst both had a mandate to remain in the EU, as standalone countries, I'm not sure that there's any Guarantee that the EU would want them, and so there's a huge issue of how they can leave the UK and then join the EU. SLim chance that a deal can be done prior to the UK exit to have simultaneous separation from Uk and entry to the EU as England an wales leaves, but that's so unlikely due to the complexity and timescales you can almost forget it.
They would not be welcome in the EU. Spain has already stated that it would veto any such applications.
And that's from the top of my head without fully investigating as I would have if I'd been able to vote.
I voted in favour of BREXIT, as no one could produce any solid arguments, I considered worthy and truthful, to persuade me that staying in the quagmire, otherwise known as the EU.
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Originally Posted by mada
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