Scary stuff......

[scooter]

I found this on the Silver Bullet site....makes for scary reading

Oil Glut is NOW
$12 Gas and Rationing? Possible, Says Expert
Dr. Hirsch was commissioned by the DoE 4 years ago to do a comprehensive study on the time required to mitigate rising oil prices by e.g., coal to liquids, better fuel efficiency of the vehicles on the road and so on. His talk at the 2005 ASPO meeting in Lisbon was one of the best at that meeting.

So this guy is not a flake, he is one of the planet's few real experts on oil. On CNBC he said that he believed that in 3-5 years oil would reach $500 a barrel. This is in broad agreement with Jeffrey Brown's prediction at theoildrum.com that oil would about double in price every year. And Matt Simmons has recently given a roughly equivalent forecast.

Why will energy definitly be a problem in the next few years?

* We have accelerating declines in base production of oil. This means that we need more and more new oil every year just to keep production at the same level.
* We know how much oil is going to be available to the market over the next 7 - 10 years.

From the Mega Projects database (Volumes shown are in thousand barrels per day.)
Year 1000 BPD

2003 3172
2004 2747
2005 3776
2006 3855
2007 3314
2008 6912
2009 6146
2010 3770
2011 4563
2012 5111
2013 1237
2014 680
2015 672
2016 30
2017 162
2018 130
2019 50

The bulge is now. We are probably never going to have as much new oil coming onto the market as we do this year.

It drops by almost ONE MILLION barrels next year, and the 2010 value is HALF that of 2008. Yes, there is a minor rally over the next two years, and then it's all downhill.

We WILL almost certainly see rationing by the end of 2010. Our only real hope of avoiding it is an industry-stopping recession. Gee, doesn't that sound like fun.

Meanwhile, in another part of the galaxy, the Reserve Bank Of Scotland issues a global stock and credit crash alert. Are they right? Probably not. But they don't issue this sort of warning just for fun. There are major challenges facing our globalised economy that are going to be playing out over the next few years.

By 2050 we may all be riding hydrogen-powered motorbikes and holidaying on the moon. Or not. But between now and then we may just miss a few meals.

I hope your school is preparing your children for "Tomorrow's World."

[Griffin]

Geez... will have to ride my bike more... while I can!

[Gubb]

We still don't know if Peak Oil has occurred.

[Roki_nz]

I think in the 1930s they thought we had reached peak oil they were wrong. However I think the goverments of the world should be treating it as if oil will run out and get their butts into gear to get hydrogen cars going and more wind turbines, Tidal turbines and solar power going

[RantyDave]

It drops by almost ONE MILLION barrels next year, and the 2010 value is HALF that of 2008.

So, what you're saying is that I have to buy a new bike right now?

Phew. Well, it's going to be a hard pill to swallow, clearly. But, well, gotta be done, right?

Dave

[Flatcap]

Bollocks

Once the price of oil gets to a certain level, this lot will be economic to refine:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_Oil_Sands

No way it will get to $500 a barrel in our lifetime

[Edbear]

Bollocks

Once the price of oil gets to a certain level, this lot will be economic to refine:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_Oil_Sands

No way it will get to $500 a barrel in our lifetime

You know, a cynic would hypothesize that the US is deliberately pushing the oil price up in order to make it economically viable to mine their own oil...?

[What?]

Aside from the fact that Dr Hirsch's predictions are, by his own admission, worst case scenario, IF the price were to hit $10/litre within five years, rationing would actually not be necessary; the price alone would drive conservatory measures.

[marty]

at NZ$2.20 litre people are already downsizing/using less. The US has seen a 4% reduction in fuel usage - the first time in 20-odd years that it has dropped. Petrol SUV's and large car sales have virtually dried up in NZ - go to your local Holden/Ford dealership and see how much a late model XR6/8 or SS Commodore is.

There is no shortage in the world at the moment. There are tankers of oil sailing around in circles in the gulf with speculators sitting on them waiting for the prices to rise.

do some research on the prices around the world - most of the fuel pricing is bumped by taxes, with an influence from speculation. not much of the current pricing structure pricing is actually influenced by supply.

[Maffoo]

there will come a time when people just say 'enough' & stop buying it
governments will collapse & the income to the oil producers will end
when what happens they will pump more & drop prices
its part of macro-economics, i forget what it is called
equilibrium pricing, or something