Warning- for when you up the pace.

[mashman]

So because 2 in 100 accidents cant be helped, and will nail you regardless of your caution, now we mus throw our hands in the air, say "what the fuck, it cannot be helped" and ride like we stole it? Rather a defeatist attitude if you ask me.
That seems to rely waaay too much on fate for my liking. Clearly you dont have kids.

Yes. It can't be helped because it's happened. Get over it, move on, let's hope someone learns their lesson. You can still have an accident/crash without riding like you stole it as i've been mentioning across my posts... Not defeatist, realist...
I was wondering if you and KM where fatalists whilst typing that post lol, didn't realise it had come across... It might be fate, it might not, dunno, don't believe in it, can't disregard it... I have 4 kids ta

[onearmedbandit]

What's this '50-50' chance of falling off in a corner thing? Should I read that as I see it, or is the relevance buried somewhere deep inside the thread? If I had a 50-50 chance of falling off on a corner I'd give up riding.

[mashman]

What's this '50-50' chance of falling off in a corner thing? Should I read that as I see it, or is the relevance buried somewhere deep inside the thread? If I had a 50-50 chance of falling off on a corner I'd give up riding.

You have a 50 - 50 chance of having an accident in my book, on a corner, on a straight. If there's a nail in the corner that you don't see you have a 50 - 50 chance of hitting it and blowing out and killing yourself. That's where i'm coming from. It doesn't mean it will happen, but you can't rule it out... that's what I mean, that's what I have accepted and of course I ride to mitigate the PROBABILITY... but i will always have a 50 - 50 chance of fucking up. Simple as me.

[Swoop]

I completely agree that the road is not the place to be exploring any limits or boundries.

So, you are against driver/rider training? This all happens on the roads.

[Katman]

So, you are against driver/rider training? This all happens on the roads.

You know exactly what I mean by limits and boundries.

[onearmedbandit]

You have a 50 - 50 chance of having an accident in my book, on a corner, on a straight. If there's a nail in the corner that you don't see you have a 50 - 50 chance of hitting it and blowing out and killing yourself. That's where i'm coming from. It doesn't mean it will happen, but you can't rule it out... that's what I mean, that's what I have accepted and of course I ride to mitigate the PROBABILITY... but i will always have a 50 - 50 chance of fucking up. Simple as me.

If the nail took up half the road and had spikes all over it, I'd almost agree with you. But they don't, on both accounts. So the chances of hitting that nail are far less then 50-50, taking into account it's actual size in relation to the road, it's actual ability to puncture your tyre, and any avoidance measures you employ, I'd wager the chances of coming off in that corner as being .000001-99.999999.

[bogan]

I can fall off the step at home and kill myself, so let's be real here. I have a 50 - 50 chance of crashing my bike on a corner that I have ridden several thousand times, so my probability of crashing on that corner at my current speed is pretty low. Yet there is still a chance that it can happen, it happens or it doesn't. The 1 time that I come off could be my fault, but statistically and from my perspective knowing my riding and my abilities it's not likely to happen, yet i still have a 50 -50 chance of it happening and fully accept that FACT.

The OP should be an Ad on TV, which is how this latest charade started, I agree, whole heartedly, with what he's saying, but that does not mean I am advocating using the road like a race track and does not read like a racing manual...

you don't understand prababilities do you, 50-50 means you have a 50% chance of crashing on a corner, which statistically means if you go round it 100 times, you will fall off about 50 times, so fuck knows how you have got round it thousands of times so far! and yeh you can get hit by a meteor and killed too, but you're a lot less likely to die that way then from cocking it up on the road, as you are a lot less likely to cock it up on the road if you don't ride at your limit, also you are a lot less likely to be killed on the road if you know you and your bikes realistic limits.

[onearmedbandit]

Yes I think he might be confusing it for 'you're either upright or on your arse'.

[bogan]

even so, a binary outcome in no way equates to a 50-50 chance

[MSTRS:Me]

Maybe he means either you will or you won't crash. That's 50/50.
But also totally unrealistic.

[onearmedbandit]

even so, a binary outcome in no way equates to a 50-50 chance

Oh I agree, as per my post above.

[bogan]

Maybe he means either you will or you won't crash. That's 50/50.
But also totally unrealistic.

no it's not, 50-50 means equal chance, ie a coin toss, a corner i go round every day has a 1000000/1 (number in this sort of vicinity) chance of staying upright to crashing, still only two outcomes though

[avgas]

even so, a binary outcome in no way equates to a 50-50 chance

Depends entirely on the system. Using mashman's "windowing" of things that could happen, 50-50 is no impossible.
Tis the great contrast of 'probability' and 'possibility'

[imdying]

You have a 50 - 50 chance of having an accident in my book, on a corner, on a straight. If there's a nail in the corner that you don't see you have a 50 - 50 chance of hitting it and blowing out and killing yourself. That's where i'm coming from. It doesn't mean it will happen, but you can't rule it out... that's what I mean, that's what I have accepted and of course I ride to mitigate the PROBABILITY... but i will always have a 50 - 50 chance of fucking up. Simple as me.

WTF? They must have magical fire and forget heat sinking Ground To Aprilia nail missiles where you live

Stop pulling numbers out of your arse, it makes you look like a muppet.

/edit: Yes yes, one L

[MSTRS:Me]

no it's not, 50-50 means equal chance, ie a coin toss, a corner i go round every day has a 1000000/1 (number in this sort of vicinity) chance of staying upright to crashing, still only two outcomes though

Yes, it is right. At least as I put it...
Like your coin toss....if you flip it twice, there is an equal chance of either side coming up once.
I never said it was likely tho