MotoGP 2012

[denill]

Spies: "Everyone will know something more this week."

[tbs]

Your're talking about the Italian magazine article right? This one:
http://manziana.motocorse.com/blog/32890_Desmo-whys

Read that one, and it was quite interesting. Maybe what I was trying to say wasn't coming out too clear though. Ducati, being a small manufacturer (compared to Honda and Yamaha, and Suzuki & Kawasaki for that matter) don't have the money or resources for continuos R&D to the extent that the Japanese manufuactures do. Ducati can't go round for round with the Japs trying to match immediately every improvement that they make. I'm not trying to say they (Preziosi/Ducati) is stupid for not doing that, not at all. They are just operating on a different timeline to the others. The head of HRC, Nakamoto, is working on the belief that it takes three years of development to get a championship winning bike (Preziosi said 2 years). And that is working on the continuous development of said bike. In the last 3 or 4 years Ducati has jumped from a cromoly tube frame, to a CF/stressed engine frame, to a AL/stressed engine frame, to a AL beam frame, and also throwing in a change from 800 to 1000cc. There is not a whole lot of consistancy there with the overall layout. So lots of big leaps recently w/o enough time to sort out the changes needed to go from design concept to working/winning prototype.

Now I don't know about you, but to me those changes would constitute a wholesale change.

Now some of this theory may be skewed by the generalizations that I have about cultures. From my time in uni studing engineering I found that a lot of the asian (mostly Tiwanese and some Japs and Koreans) were very good at crunching numbers and working along in a linear fashion. I'm not real familar with their culture, but I think that this sortof aligns with that. There were, perhaps, not quite as eager as Europeans/Americans to think outside the box, and jump for radical changes. This however is my personal theory and I'm sure it will get some shit slung at me about generalising.

I bought an Australian print magazine last night and it had some interesting commentary on what has gone wrong with Rossi and the Ducati. According to them, Jerry Burgess discounted the L-4 length being the problem as "Bunkem", saying that the Honda V4 was almost 90 degrees anyway. Basically he said the bike is within 1% of the others, but that it was essentially the same bike that they started the season on. If a Honda or Yamaha factory pilot says he wants a tweak on his bike it is there for the next race, whereas Rossi has been waiting and waiting for updates which just haven't come. The bulk of the changes have been radical, with no follow up to refine them. Rossi knows that isn't going to change in time for him to have a go at Agostini's record. He needs six wins a year for three years to achieve it, which he is hoping he will manage with Yamaha.

Wayne Rainey commented that Rossi still has all the talent required to win races, but that after this many years operating in the Japanese culture, where they updated the bike to the way he wanted it, he just couldn't adapt to the totally different Ducati. If he'd got on the Ducati earlier in his career, it may have worked out, but he's refined his style on completely different bikes. The big test according to Rainey will be if Vale still has the desire to push hard enough. His skill is not in doubt.

[Crasherfromwayback]

Rossi knows that isn't going to change in time for him to have a go at Agostini's record. He needs six wins a year for three years to achieve it, which he is hoping he will manage with Yamaha.

.

I don't like his chances. But to me...he's already a better racer than Ago was.

[tbs]

I don't like his chances. But to me...he's already a better racer than Ago was.

Yeah it's a tough ask for sure. They mentioned his 11 wins in a season, which I think he did twice, but it's a different ball-game now. Against Lorenzo and with the way Dani is riding lately, I think 6 is going to be a huge effort.

[tail_end_charlie]

not sure about that.even with a good bike i am not sure that Hayden or Dovi will be fast enough to beat two factory Hondas and two factory Yamahas not to mention Bradl,Bautista et al...

Ummmm, so you're ignoring the fact that one has a MotoGP WC and the other has more podiums than half of the factory bikes on the grid? I mean shit, Dovi has 5 podiums this year so far on a satillite Yamaha, how many do Bautista and Bradle have???? ZERO!

I would say that both Hayden and Dovi are capable of podiums, and maybe even a win or two IF they were on competative bikes. They are maybe a step down from JL, CS, DP, & VR, but not by much.

[Crasherfromwayback]

Yeah it's a tough ask for sure. They mentioned his 11 wins in a season, which I think he did twice, but it's a different ball-game now. Against Lorenzo and with the way Dani is riding lately, I think 6 is going to be a huge effort.

Lorenzo has only got better since.

[BMWST?]

Yeah it's a tough ask for sure. They mentioned his 11 wins in a season, which I think he did twice, but it's a different ball-game now. Against Lorenzo and with the way Dani is riding lately, I think 6 is going to be a huge effort.

not only the aliens either.If he has a bad day he may also get beaten by the tech 3 bikes and the satelite Hondas...so getting the points in for championship wont be as easy as it was either

[BMWST?]

They are maybe a step down from JL, CS, DP, & VR, but not by much.

Thats my point.if the aforementioned ride to their potential there wont be a podium for the duc...Dovi is getting podiums because he is on a very good bike AND the aliens are making mistakes,and i do not take away anything from him in saying that.

[tail_end_charlie]

Yeah it's a tough ask for sure. They mentioned his 11 wins in a season, which I think he did twice, but it's a different ball-game now. Against Lorenzo and with the way Dani is riding lately, I think 6 is going to be a huge effort.

Dani sure is going to make the end of this season interesting. And JL must be a bit worried, considering his engine status.
http://www.superbikeplanet.com/2012/Aug/120831a.htm

Sounds like there is a very real chance that JL may have to stretch the number of races he gets out of an engine, or else may have to make a start from pit lane. Seems to me like that might just give the advantage to DP at this point of the season, even if he is 13 pts behind right now.

[tail_end_charlie]

Thats my point.if the aforementioned ride to their potential there wont be a podium for the duc...Dovi is getting podiums because he is on a very good bike AND the aliens are making mistakes,and i do not take away anything from him in saying that.

Fair enough. But there will only be 3 aliens next year. JL, DP & VR. I don't really think that Marq M. will be at the top right off the bat next year. So IF ducati are able to get themselves sorted and have a competative bike next year (and that is one almighty big if) the three aliens will have to ride every race of the season perfectly to not allow anyone else to get on the podium. That ain't gonna happen, even they make mistakes every so often. And who will be next snapping at their heels the whole way? Dovi, NH, Bradle, Cal and whoever gets Bautista's ride. Of those 'second tier' riders, I would hazard to say that Dovi and Hayden are the best right now.

Will Dovi/Hayden be competative for the WC? Eh, thats a bit more of a long shot, but then again, it can and has been argued that Hayden wasn't the fastest rider in 2006, but still took the crown when the dust settled.

[BMWST?]

Fair enough. But there will only be 3 aliens next year. JL, DP & VR. I don't really think that Marq M. will be at the top right off the bat next year. So IF ducati are able to get themselves sorted and have a competative bike next year (and that is one almighty big if) the three aliens will have to ride every race of the season perfectly to not allow anyone else to get on the podium. That ain't gonna happen, even they make mistakes every so often. And who will be next snapping at their heels the whole way? Dovi, NH, Bradle, Cal and whoever gets Bautista's ride. Of those 'second tier' riders, I would hazard to say that Dovi and Hayden are the best right now.

Will Dovi/Hayden be competative for the WC? Eh, thats a bit more of a long shot, but then again, it can and has been argued that Hayden wasn't the fastest rider in 2006, but still took the crown when the dust settled.

dont agree.More often than not the ducs have been behind the japanese GP bikes.I dont think that is going to change anytime soon

[tail_end_charlie]

dont agree.More often than not the ducs have been behind the japanese GP bikes.I dont think that is going to change anytime soon

Well yeah, I was saying that if we put all the riders on competative (read equal) machinery, the riders skill level would show you the three aliens as the best, and then Dovi and Hayden would be the best of the rest. But thats neither here nor there, cause it'll never happen. So I guess I was trying to make a bit of a moot point.

And yeah, for the most part the Duc has been behind the Jap bikes, although they did have a couple of years ('06~'08) that they pretty much on par with the Jap bikes. (Having a great rider in CS didn't hurt either.)

[pritch]

Lorenzo has only got better since.

And so it seems has Pedrosa. I didn't rate the dwarf quite as high as the other aliens, sure he was good for a couple of wins each season but... His recent head to head effort against Lorenzo though may have opened up a whole new range of possibilities. Hopefully the two of them can keep the racing interesting until Stoner returns and complicates things further?

[Drew]

And yeah, for the most part the Duc has been behind the Jap bikes, although they did have a couple of years ('06~'08) that they pretty much on par with the Jap bikes. (Having a great rider in CS didn't hurt either.)

Lots more speed on the straights, and a rider with exceptional ability to push with no feel.

[merv]

I don't like his chances. But to me...he's already a better racer than Ago was.

I for one never knock Ago, his record was outstanding, and after all those years on 4 strokes including many races at the Isle of Man he showed how good he was by changing to the 2 strokes and winning 2 more world championships late in his career as well as winning the Daytona 200 on his first attempt. It wasn't just his first attempt at Daytona it was his first race for Yamaha. Many Yanks would envy the fact he'd managed that after years of trying. Is Rossi that good? Maybe, but to say he is better could be a hard one to prove.

Ago won his last GP aged 34, Rossi won his last GP (will it be his last, that is a big question?) at age 31.

The jury has taken a recession on Rossi for now.

Haha can't wait for him to get back on the Yamaha though, but I would have preferred him on a Honda.