Annual GDP growth for the year ended June 2018 was 2.7%.
The size of the economy in current prices was $289 billion.
Growth was broad-based, with 15 of 16 industries recording higher production. Mining was the only industry to decline, reflecting one-off factors.
“Once again service industries led growth. Goods-producing and primary industries also saw rises this quarter,” Stats NZ's national accounts senior manager Susan Hollows said.
The largest contribution to growth came from agriculture, up 4.2%.
Growth of 1.0% in the service industries was broad-based, with all industries recording a lift.
The ball is also firmly in the court of the RBNZ to re-examine rather closely their economic forecasting model as their GDP growth forecast for the June quarter (+0.50%) was precisely half the actual outcome!
A continuing positive for the Kiwi dollar from the stronger than expected GDP growth result will be a revision upwards in the RBNZ’s inflation forecasts for the next 18 months.
It will be interesting to see if Governor Adrian Orr changes his wording or inferences in this week’s OCR review statement. It is positive for the Kiwi dollar if the RBNZ are forced by the stronger economic data to increase their inflation forecasts and bring forward the timing of the first OCR increase (having just pushed it out further a month ago).
The Reserve Bank of Australia are stating that their next OCR move will be upwards. In contrast, the RBNZ appears to be giving equal waiting to a move up and a move down.
Given the the positive momentum in the rural economy right now (forestry, fishing, dairy, beef, sheepmeat, horticulture, wine and Aucklanders selling up their houses and shifting south), there is a real risk that the RBNZ have made a misjudgement on the economy and inflation. Therefore, sometime before the end of 2018 they will be forced to change their tune.
It is not unreasonable to expect to see the Kiwi dollar appreciating another two cents just on the back of this potential RBNZ flip-flop alone.
Bookmarks