Putin

[FJRider]

The problem I see is if the Ukraine achieves some form of Victory, they will be able to say 'We fought and died for our Homeland, we aren't evil like the Russians, we're the good guys!' and that is some powerful rhetoric.

But Putin see's the Ukraine in the same regard ... China see's Taiwan. Traitorous REBELS.

If the Russians takeover the Ukraine without any US involvement ... China might have a go at Taiwan.


But Putin's big issue at the moment ... is the same issue that lost the German invasion of Soviet territory in WW2. The very long and poorly protected supply lines.

And a few busloads of volunteers from around the world ... going to help fight for Ukraine ... wont change much.


Putin has plenty of time. Another month ... and half the population of the Ukraine will have already left.

[pritch]

It's all about to get more complicated for the movement of Russian supplies. They are having trouble on the frozen ground. Pretty soon the ice will mellt and the ground will be mud. Good times.

The peace talks are reportedly problematical. The Ukrainian delegation can negotiate. The Russians can't. Putin isn't there, nobody knows what Putin will accept, so they can't agree to anything.

[pete376403]

It's all about to get more complicated for the movement of Russian supplies. They are having trouble on the frozen ground. Pretty soon the ice will mellt and the ground will be mud. Good times.

The peace talks are reportedly problematical. The Ukrainian delegation can negotiate. The Russians can't. Putin isn't there, nobody knows what Putin will accept, so they can't agree to anything.

A report I saw, backed up with satellite images, says the Ukrainians are flooding low lying areas (hydraulic defence) which will compound the russians access problems

[pete376403]

On this the current Ukraine conflict, I have seen an alarming number of reports of openly Neo-Nazis fighting on the side of the Ukraine.

And I don't mean 'OMG you didn't use my pronouns, YOU NAZI!', I mean full on Swastika flying, SS bolt wearing, Jew Hating, Holocaust denying Neo-Nazis.

This presents a series of Moral Dilemas.

Firstly - One of Putin's bits of Rhetoric was that he was 'De-Nazifying the Ukraine' - and when even the NATO twitter account posts a picture, where a Female soldier has a Black Sun logo on her chest - it seems like all the best lies, there's a kernel of truth to it.

As a quick aside, does anyone here believe that Putin is so aghast at Neo-Nazis that his morals compel him to intercede? Yeah... Me neither....

Secondly - I don't like any form of political extremists - Communists and Nazis can both Fuck off.

Thirdly - and this is perhaps the most worrying, the fight in Ukraine necessitates that everyone who is ready, willing and able to Fight, does fight. It's not like they have such an overwhelming military advantage that they can turn around to these people and say 'Go home, you aren't welcome in this fight, we don't want your kind here'. We are supplying equipment to these people, to defend their homeland, but what after? Does anyone think such an extremist group is going to turn their arms in? Hell, even the regular Ukrainian citizen is likely to be clutching tightly to any weaponary they own in a manner that would make even the most ardent 2A advocate from the US feel inadequate.

Like all things in life, there's things lurking beneath the surface.

That might cause issues with the ex Israeli Defence Force Special forces volunteers heading to Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=owbPBjkh-EY

[TheDemonLord]

That might cause issues with the ex Israeli Defence Force Special forces volunteers heading to Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=owbPBjkh-EY

Zelenski (spelling?) is Jewish as it is...

I suspect most likely is that they will organically keep clear of each other...

[TheDemonLord]

But Putin see's the Ukraine in the same regard ... China see's Taiwan. Traitorous REBELS.

If the Russians takeover the Ukraine without any US involvement ... China might have a go at Taiwan.


But Putin's big issue at the moment ... is the same issue that lost the German invasion of Soviet territory in WW2. The very long and poorly protected supply lines.

And a few busloads of volunteers from around the world ... going to help fight for Ukraine ... wont change much.


Putin has plenty of time. Another month ... and half the population of the Ukraine will have already left.

Kinda ironic, given invading Russia was the bane of Naploeon and the Moustach'ed fellow, you'd think the Russians would learn a little bit of their own history and figure out it also is a factor in reverse...

[TheDemonLord]

To us, well more so to you than me. the presence of Nazis might appear a major factor. I had seen vague references and seen the Russian propaganda but only came across some specifics in a relatively recent item. Ukrainians have been living with these people for a long time, they know about them and may even know some. They are used to them.

This is about the Azov Regiment, the Ukranian Nazi unit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GoqZ8gPKKis

What can I say, I'm decidedly against any Marxist derived ideology....

I've known about the eastern european Neo-Nazis for a while, however things like fighting in a war of liberation is really good PR...

The thing that has been surprising to me is whilst there's the Azov regiment, which you can kinda say 'oh it's just one isolated regiment', it's the other regular Ukrainian military units/Militia groups that are prominently sporting Nazi symbols.

[pritch]

The thing that has been surprising to me is whilst there's the Azov regiment, which you can kinda say 'oh it's just one isolated regiment', it's the other regular Ukrainian military units/Militia groups that are prominently sporting Nazi symbols.

That 2% in the election is comforting. Although the open presence of an apparently successful bunch of fascists may attract others from around the globe.

A decade or two ago, whoever was running Ukraine at the time went on an antisemitic binge and many Ukrainians migrated to Israel. As with Canada there will be a lot of Israelis with Ukranian family connections.

There are an estimated eleven million Russians with family members in Ukraine. Young people in Ukraine are having difficulty connecting with their parents in Russia. When they describe the sitiuation their parents correct them and tell them that they have nothing to fear, only Nazis are targeted, the Russian soldiers are handing out food and warm clothing etc etc. This usually leads to the Ukraine resident hanging up in frustration.

One guy who had the experience is now trying to organise all those affected in this way to maintain contact with their families, not hang up, and persist with an accurate description of the situation. Eleven million Russians learning the truth might start to change things.

[Pursang]

Around 2014, after the annexation of Crimea, Russian sponsored/supported/led separatists attempted to take Eastern Ukrainie, around the Donbrass region.
The first and most effective resistance was provided by the local "Good Ol' Boys" militia.
Nationalist, Far Right, anti Soviet, anti foreigners, and armed to the teeth, they posed a major block to Putins goal.

Now consider, if the Mexican President attempted to take back the historically Mexican owned territories of the Southern USA.
Who would be first on the line? The (Trump Supporting) Local Militia. Commonly Identified by Philosophy, Insignia and Association as "Neo Nazi's".

Not supporting their philosophy, at all, but they are generally the most armed and prepared for a quick response to an incursion.
Easy for Mexican propaganda to then suggest that the USA is dominated by neo Nazis! (Actually, it's somewhere, just less than 50%)

Cheers, Daryl.

[Pursang]

Obviously, some Intellect here in this thread, with profound understandings of International politics, diplomacy and military strategy.

No-one yet, here or elsewhere, is discussing China's Win/Win from the conflict.

A). Obviously, if Putin takes Ukraine, there will be little to stop China from rescuing the Taiwanese people from the clutches of their decadent, capitalist neo Nazi existence. (US assurances/promises not withstanding)

B). If Ukraine survives, on the other hand, Putin and the Russian army are revealed as Paper Tigers!
China will be free to recover the historic (1689) northern territories, 'stolen' from it by Russia (1858 & 1860).
Including Vladivostok and down to the North Korea border. (Nobody mentions the North China Sea).
Taking a large section of the Trans Siberia railway will certainly add capacity to the 'Belt & Road'.
Russia probably needs to get ready for the Belting, then hit the road!



Cheers, Daryl.

[TheDemonLord]

B). If Ukraine survives, on the other hand, Putin and the Russian army are revealed as Paper Tigers!
China will be free to recover the historic (1689) northern territories, 'stolen' from it by Russia (1858 & 1860).
Including Vladivostok and down to the North Korea border. (Nobody mentions the North China Sea).
Taking a large section of the Trans Siberia railway will certainly add capacity to the 'Belt & Road'.
Russia probably needs to get ready for the Belting, then hit the road!

Cheers, Daryl.

Imagine you are Putin for a moment, your proud Military, one of the mightiest in the world, has just been defeated by a Well Armed Militia using 40-50 year old tech, then the biggest Army in the world (by personnel count) decides to invade.

That presents Putin with an Existential crisis to the continued existence of Russia. And he'd have likely one response....

"Ядерное оружие"

[FJRider]

Imagine you are Putin for a moment, your proud Military, one of the mightiest in the world, has just been defeated by a Well Armed Militia using 40-50 year old tech, then the biggest Army in the world (by personnel count) decides to invade.

And the Great USA got defeated by an army using Stone-age tech.


Your point is ... ??

[mashman]

No-one yet, here or elsewhere, is discussing China's Win/Win from the conflict.

Viking posted in interesting read that ties a few things together

[sugilite:Me]

And the Great USA got defeated by an army using Stone-age tech.


Your point is ... ??

I think his point is, that same stone age army also defeated the soviet union, he just left that part out by mistake.

[TheDemonLord]

And the Great USA got defeated by an army using Stone-age tech.

Your point is ... ??

Loosing a War in another part of the world were you don't share a Border is embarassing, but it's not the same as having your border invaded.

If Putin is beaten in Ukraine (and further commentary from LazerPig: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPBU_MX1fYE provides some interesting points), then that's bad - but Putin still has his country, intact. 'Capturing' Kiev and claiming victory is one possible end to the Conflict.

If, however, China invades - that's now a situation where Putin could see the end of Russia - at which point, using Nukes becomes a possible cause of action.