End revenue deaths - conquer the RAM

[candor]

Full disclosure time. I'm the KBer that Candor has been sending the information to.

They initially felt three years would show enough of a trend but this figure seems to be constantly changing as they found that road accidents were more random than their original theory was able to deal with. .

Our experts say the conclusion regarding randomness is wrong. That the model is fundamentally flawed not due to this but due to "turbulent flow", wrong assumptions, and the size of the dummy factor. The flaw in the advice they say wa to not look outside the flawed paradigm of believing speed and alcohol ticket numbers have a linear relation to trauma.

[candor]

Also the road toll has not "dropped a bit". Not by statistical significance, and the Duignan report showed any savings in deaths made were by engineering improvements. The trend though altered midway when the model went full force. The toll as counted in crash numbers and fatal and serious injury numbers aggregated (the correct measure of progress in successful countries) has increased astronomically. As an engineer mate says - if you live or die is random, the fiocus should be on crash prevention not mitigating impacts.
From 2B ACC crash liabilities a mere 6 odd years ago to nearly 7B now. The formula is therefore a major lemon.

[StoneY]

Our experts say the conclusion regarding randomness is wrong. That the model is fundamentally flawed not due to this but due to "turbulent flow", wrong assumptions, and the size of the dummy factor. The flaw in the advice they say wa to not look outside the flawed paradigm of believing speed and alcohol ticket numbers have a linear relation to trauma.

Much better post. Short, pointed, and informative! Well done

Keep the emotion out and you make better sense its that simple

And I will accept the freudian slip of calling me Smokey, but heed my words
Your not the only one with access to the Labour Party.

You gotta drop the conspiracy theorist angle, it kills all interst.
BRONZ does not act without VERIFYING sources, take that as you will Rachael

Have a nice day

[MSTRS:Me]

From 2B ACC crash liabilities a mere 6 odd years ago to nearly 7B now.

That in its self, is not a reliable indicator. Only the number of crashes counts, not the cost of them.

[riffer]

Also the road toll has not "dropped a bit". Not by statistical significance, and the Duignan report showed any savings in deaths made were by engineering improvements. The trend though altered midway when the model went full force. The toll as counted in crash numbers and fatal and serious injury numbers aggregated (the correct measure of progress in successful countries) has increased astronomically. As an engineer mate says - if you live or die is random, the fiocus should be on crash prevention not mitigating impacts.
From 2B ACC crash liabilities a mere 6 odd years ago to nearly 7B now. The formula is therefore a major lemon.

Actually it has. There are far more road users on the road than 10 years ago. Do remember Rachael, we did a LOT of research during the bikoi regarding this info and we KNOW the numbers. This has been largely due to better roads and better vehicles , not the RAM. We have this information from Charlie Lamb, and this IS verifiable.

[Pixie]

For those that doubt the existence of these organisations and their activities

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTE...582213,00.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RoadPol

The claims here (below) for reductions in NZ's road toll imply that it is another NZ in a parallel universe.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/17419247/R...s-Lives-June09

[candor]

Wasthat just MCs or general - different data sources give different pictures. Serious injuries numbers are rising faster than population or vehicle km rises warrant it seems, the official figures from Police used by MoT and in reviews they commission are Crash Analysis system sourced and deriving from on the spot Police reports are much different (lower) to those from MoH hospitalisation data or ones we got from Health Info Service for head and spinal injuries (rising hardout since 2002), and a recent Otago study showed Police under record injuries.
I'd be pretty sure total killer/serious injury crashes are up per capita... even taking into account vkms and that this reflects in ACC claims as well as increased medical costs not helping. Regardless, even if they may just hover at a muchness when taking all other factors in account this is still disgraceful levels compared to other countries. The toll predicted as achievable had best evidence (more engineering) been followed in the outgoing 2010 plan was for 150 fewer yearly deaths than we're at. It wouldhave been 100 less had the RAM done what it was meant to.

[candor]

The claims here (below) for reductions in NZ's road toll imply that it is another NZ in a parallel universe.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/17419247/R...s-Lives-June09

Selling snake oil my palm

[Ixion]

Perhaps I may comment.

Mr Bliss certainly exists. He was a senior official at the LTSA. He is now a senior official at the World Bank (which also exists). There, he runs a program aimed at 'third world' countries, intended to enable, or persuade, them to reduce their road fatality rate.

Here is some independent info about Mr Bliss (well, sort of independent, it's from the World Bank themselves)
http://web.worldbank.org/external/de...heSitePK=29708

Mr Bliss is an economist . As such, he thinks differently to real people. In particular , he (like all economists) regards road safety as a cost benefit exercise. So many people killed or injured , costs X much, programs to reduce that casualty rate cost Y much. That may seem a bit cold blooded but it's the way economists think.

Realistically, we could cut the road death and injury rate to almost nothing. Reduce all speed limits to 20kph, fence roads off completely, fit governors to all vehicles. And hire 100000 traffic cops to police it all. But the cost of all that would be disproportionate. Cold bloodedly, we have to accept that some people are going to die. Mr Bliss tried to analyse what pattern of expenditure of money would produce the greatest benefit (it's more complicted than it seems - for instance , letting old people get killed is probably a good thing as far as an economist is concerned, they are a net drain of society . I said economists were odd )

The result of that was the Resource Allocation Model. Mr Bliss worked out that if you concentrated the majority of your money on road policing of drink driving, speeding, and seatbelts , you got the best result. No, I don't know what planet he comes from.

But the RAM certainly exists. You can buy a book all about it if you really want to (though I doubt it has the secret formulas in it ).
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/con...ent=a713867956

On the face of it, the RAM seems not illogical. Unfortunately, people are strange creatures, that seldom behave how economists think they ought to. And, so it has proven in this instance. Despite applying the RAM with vigour and zeal, the cost of road casualties has risen . Rsien quite a lot. That's the cost, as measured by deaths , injuries, hospital time, lost productivity etc. So it's a bit more complex than a simple 'how many people dead' number.

The problem is , that a lot of people are very obsessively committed to the RAM . And don't want to know about any problems . "nah nah nah, I can't hear you I've got my fingers in my ears, I can't hear you". Economists are a bit like that, look at Mr Brash.

[candor]

RAM has some pseudonyms dependent on the audience. At the Bank it's known as "safety management system 1b". I always wonder what 1a is, maybe Victorias system. Among Police it's known as general deterrence Policing. And at NZTA it is Greatest Enforceable Risk. Some engineers dispute that economists particularly at bachelor level have any business in applied sciences like injury prevention. I really think that had injury prevention specialists, engineers or even IT modellers been consulted throughout the flaws in modelling would have screamed.

Alice and the Cheshire cat, a telling tale, signed by Bliss in his capacity as employee of LTSA and the World Bank. Cached version as original just got removed.
http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cache...&ct=clnk&gl=nz

[Ronin]

Perhaps I may comment.

I'm glad you did, because that was, with all due respect to candor, understandable.

So if the RAM is so bad. What should it be replaced by? And I'm assuming here that there will still be bean counters involved somewhere.

[candor]

Evidence based policies as seen on tv. Nah, as seen in many countries. This requires analysis of the evidence about crash causes - not just RAM defined ones, then use of proven methods to tackle those causes. The AAs safer j's submission provides a good framework to overhaul the system. Parts are cited in my earlier post here in green and yellow, which was actually a submission we made to Labour seeking a review.

Importantly the AA recommends redefining the paradigm by moving away from the priorities set by RAM and Safer Journeys - which give education low value incidentally. It instead proposed redefined areas of focus in 5 categories eg education replaces "young drivers" as an area of focus. RAM is strongly anti eucation as I guess its not enforceable! Or formula fodder.

The Govt has been provided with rich input via Safer Journeys. What constitutes evidence based policies is no mystery - it's just that RAM has been a major blocker here. Ixions use of the word obsessed nails it.

[Pixie]

Mr Bliss is an economist . As such, he thinks differently to real people. In particular , he (like all economists) regards road safety as a cost benefit exercise. So many people killed or injured , costs X much, programs to reduce that casualty rate cost Y much. That may seem a bit cold blooded but it's the way economists think.

More info: prior to LTSA Mr Bliss was one of the inmates at Area 51 that didn't get autopsied and managed to escape inside a donkey.
The phrase "ignorance is Bliss" can be attributed to his 5th grade teacher, Modor the Terrible at PS 45 on Alpha Sagittarius 5.

[Pixie]

Alice and the Cheshire cat, a telling tale, signed by Bliss in his capacity as employee of LTSA and the World Bank. Cached version as original just got removed.
http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cache...&ct=clnk&gl=nz

I suppose he did a degree to be able to write such drivel

[Pixie]

I'm glad you did, because that was, with all due respect to candor, understandable.

So if the RAM is so bad. What should it be replaced by? And I'm assuming here that there will still be bean counters involved somewhere.

Perhaps one of the policy packages that work in most other countries?
God! what am I saying? New Zealand do something other than reinvent the wheel?