The journey that COVID-19 will take us on

[R650R]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...eally-was.html

[TheDemonLord]

I doubt that will happen. Especially if underlying medical conditions were involved.

If an autopsy is required to confirm cause of death ... the family may not consent to one being carried out.

I agree it's unlikely, I was just talking more about from a Stats basis - it would be nice to have both side represented in raw numbers for comparison. We can kinda infer the numbers from the info given, I just like to have stats that go both ways, makes analysis nicer - especially if there is any error or uncertainty from either direction.

[FJRider]

I agree it's unlikely, I was just talking more about from a Stats basis - it would be nice to have both side represented in raw numbers for comparison. We can kinda infer the numbers from the info given, I just like to have stats that go both ways, makes analysis nicer - especially if there is any error or uncertainty from either direction.

Everybody knows you can't have it BOTH ways ...

The key point of reference though ... is the "Within 28 days of a positive Covid test". Those that were already in Hospital for (usually non specified) underlying medical conditions ... possibly even expected to die ... that 28 days gives the medical teams a baseline to note any change in the (speed of) decline of the patients condition. No change in the decline ... if in fact if there is any decline ... might suggest the actual amount of affect Covid is making on the patient. If indeed ANY effect

Some may have not been admitted to Hospital until the positive test result was noted ... and were already unwell.

The family of the deceased may also prefer that their loved one's death ... is not recorded as a covid caused death. Thus if no autopsy has been performed and cause of death confirmed ... it is not (cannot be ??) recorded as such.

Also the question of ... is there a "Baseline" requirement for an autopsy to be performed for a suspected Covid death ... ??

[pete376403]

.

The family of the deceased may also prefer that their loved one's death ... is not recorded as a covid caused death. Thus if no autopsy has been performed and cause of death confirmed ... it is not (cannot be ??) recorded as such.

Also the question of ... is there a "Baseline" requirement for an autopsy to be performed for a suspected Covid death ... ??

Does a family get the choice? Cause of death record is not up for suggestion, surely. And if there is any question, isn't the autopsy mandatory? Otherwise what is the point of having a record, just put it down to "I dunno, just stopped living or something?"

[FJRider]

Does a family get the choice?

Why would they NOT ... if the death was NOT suspicious .. ??

Cause of death record is not up for suggestion, surely.

Interesting reading here ..

https://www.harknesshenry.co.nz/2019...h-certificate/

And if there is any question, isn't the autopsy mandatory? Otherwise what is the point of having a record, just put it down to "I dunno, just stopped living or something?"

As above ...

[pete376403]

Why would they NOT ... if the death was NOT suspicious .. ??

Because its supposed to be a matter of fact, not choice.

reading here ..

https://www.harknesshenry.co.nz/2019...h-certificate/

The family are supposed to provide the details of who and where, etc, but "If a person dies and the date of death is not known, or the death is sudden or unexplained, or occurs in special circumstances, the health practitioner completing the medical certificate of death will refer the death to a coroner for investigation." So maybe not an autopsy straight , but if it gets referred to the coroner, how else is the coroner going to arrive at a cause without one. But either way, it is supposed to be between the health practitioner or the coroner, not the families wishes / beliefs

[TheDemonLord]

Otherwise what is the point of having a record, just put it down to "I dunno, just stopped living or something?"

That is what I want my Official Cause of Death to read now.

[TheDemonLord]

Everybody knows you can't have it BOTH ways ...

hahahaha, well played.

When it comes to messy sets of numbers (that is numbers where there is a degree of uncertainty - and a Cause of Death, especially when you've got contributing factors has a degree of uncertainty/subjectiveness), I like to express the data both in a positive direction and a negative direction.

Easier to visualize the literal grey area (from my experience)

[FJRider]

Because its supposed to be a matter of fact, not choice.

Reality ... the topic we are discussing is Covid deaths. Deaths in a Hospital. With people called Doctors ... to sign the forms regarding cause of death.

They WILL know Date and probable cause of death. With the "Underlying" medical conditions of some ... the Doctors involved may not have cause to believe that Covid played a significant part in the death.

"If a person dies and the date of death is not known, or the death is sudden or unexplained, or occurs in special circumstances

I do not think Covid (related) deaths are either unexplained or special circumstances ... well not anymore.

A death unconfirmed as the result of covid ... is not a big deal. Especially if other serious medical conditions are involved.


What peaks the Coroners interest ... is a suspicious death.

[FJRider]

When it comes to messy sets of numbers (that is numbers where there is a degree of uncertainty - and a Cause of Death, especially when you've got contributing factors has a degree of uncertainty/subjectiveness), I like to express the data both in a positive direction and a negative direction.

Easier to visualize the literal grey area (from my experience)

Numbers (in the form of statistics) can prove or disprove any point ... depending on what point the presenter is trying to make.

[pritch]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...eally-was.html

That's an odd article. It talks of Britain following the science, it didn't. Initially the British response was to protect the airlines and trade, keep the airports open, and let the virus move through the population until herd immunity was attained. When Delta appeared and science said shut the border, Johnson kept the border open for weeks so he could have his meeting with the Indian PM. The meeting had to be cancelled anyway, but in the meantime 20,000 people had flown in to Britain many of whom carried Delta.

Ah well it's The daily Mail so...

[pritch]

I agree it's unlikely, I was just talking more about from a Stats basis - it would be nice to have both side represented in raw numbers for comparison. We can kinda infer the numbers from the info given, I just like to have stats that go both ways, makes analysis nicer - especially if there is any error or uncertainty from either direction.

The stats in use are only temporary. Science uses the "excess deaths" figure. They look at the average deaths per year for that location, any excess during the time of Covid will be attributed to the disease.

[FJRider]

That is what I want my Official Cause of Death to read now.

We'd like to read your cause of death now too ... regardless of the cause.


Keep reading the death notices in your local paper. It will be there ... eventually.


I want mine to read ... stabbed by a jealous lover aged 92 years old.

[TheDemonLord]

Numbers (in the form of statistics) can prove or disprove any point ... depending on what point the presenter is trying to make.

That's why I like adding extra clarity to where there is any grey area.

Less interpretation, more analysis

[TheDemonLord]

The stats in use are only temporary. Science uses the "excess deaths" figure. They look at the average deaths per year for that location, any excess during the time of Covid will be attributed to the disease.

Will or May?

See, the general idea has merit - but there are so many factors that may have caused variation - particularly cold Winter, Price increases, Political unrest, Public policy changes.

Not to discount that this is a good metric for ball-park figures and estimates, but hard stats they most certainly are not.