Unadulterated spin that misses a lot of critical considerations. The flaw in this "big lie" model is two-fold.Originally Posted by Grub
1. The road toll is NOT caused as you say (or cite) by the "Fatal Five"; Speeding, Alcohol, Restraints, Dangerous/careless and High-risk driving.
2. they contribute but it doesn't logicly follow that the identified behaviours are the best or most responsive targets for intervention out of all true options. Or that the interventions used of primarily issuing tickets/fines are effective.
THERE ARE 19 FACTORS THAT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CRASHES - all are usually accomodated in overseas crash report forms, providing a real picture.
Our Govenment in setting up the Resource Allocation Model Experiment in the mid 90's decided the biggest factors that were easily turned into revenue raising enforcement focuses were those mentioned above. this is all documented in LTSA working papers 1-7.
It then got one Mr Jones to set up the traffic crash reports to pretty exclusively collect data on speed, alcohol and safety belts - eliminating the prior and typical complexity. When only 3 horses are in the race (now 4 with intersections) only those 3 horses will be seen to continually come in as leading factors. Even if they are number 17, 18 and 19 out of the 19 main crash contributants in reality.
For example if "external distractions" like pretty girls factored in 90% of NZ crashes versus speed in say 20%, dueto the set up of crash reports and the placement by them of blinkers on investigating cops with restricted checkboxes - the stats will show speed as being high ranking and pretty girls will never get a mention.
The statistical and PR system is set up mainly to justify revenue collecting - thats why our cops get about the shortest module in crash investigation out of International forces. The govt is well aware based on its own data analysis at MOT that
1. The fatal 5 are not all the leading toll causes, in fact far from it with some
2. That the enforcement model ie quotas, does nothing to reduce the road toll associated with the fatal 5 - with one exception ie seatbelt enforcement works.
The proof of this is in internal e-mails my org acquired where MoT scientists provide ROCK SOLID evidence that the only relationship of quotas to road safety (bar seatbelts) is that they make it worse. And within which it is recommended govt "ignorethe results and try to believe it's working".
Polices paper "Effective Road Policing in NZ" by Jones (Trentham library) discusses the quota experiment and admits there is no discernible relationship between quotas, as used here for several years now, and reduced road trauma. Actually numerous reports and audits show this - the Duignan Taylor report done for MoT is a good one. Shows dbling or tripling speed tickets reduced speed crashes by 0.08% btw 03-05. That is - no impact.
Does anyone really believe the new intersection quotas will be any more successful than other ones have been? The premise that intersection crashes happen because drivers are bad and deliberately take risks so punishment threat will deter is flawed. Most are trying to survive. If they mismanage intersections it is usually gap misjudgements due to inexperience, inattention from widespread fatigue, aging population or alcohol or drugs.
Cause is not addressed by erecting wheels of fortunes on tv or by intersections so as to imply that all intersection infringers have simply made bad choices because they're risktakers - so just deserve fines.... end of story... problem fixed. Tooo stupid, just like the rest of the system that by and large equates road safety to ticket issue / profiteering (thereby sidestepping provision of real interventions while a public is misled to believe each time they get ticketed that road safety is being conscientiously attended to, LOL - tickets are the biggest diversionary tactic).
And BTW the KPI's do equate to revenue targets. Closely guarded ones. Which are linked to provision of x numbers of boys in blue (general and traffic duty). It's called pimping of the Police, whom Cullen makes pay their way so our income taxes needn't - only direct taxes should we do any of the so called fatal five. Obviously they're not all that fatal, or the high quotas set and regularly met would not be half so successful at funding a burgeoning NZ Police force.
Far as I'm concened hanging is too good for those running this politically expedient scam, at least their day of reckoning is on the horizon.Those who sold out NZ road safety to experimentation (reported at ERSO and International Conferences) in return for for foreign trade deals will be Internationally notorious by 2010. The truth of this despicable chapter in road safety history will out, as legacies of deceased NZ road safety guardians who fought within and outside govt (2 just died lately) ensure this.
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