Trump - 4 more years of this at least...

[pritch]

The Postal worker claims he has not recanted his testimony and Washington Post have made that up

The story is more complicated now, interestingly it's not "anonymous sources," people are named. Apparently he was not a happy employee having been dsciplined multiple times in recent history. I was thinking he might have changed his mind when the $130.000 was threaatened, but apparently that's no longer on offer.

I'd be surprised if the Washington Post made stuff up. Journalists get sacked for that, and newspaper jobs are in short supply. We'll see. Perhaps.

[Kickaha]

The story is more complicated now, interestingly it's not "anonymous sources," people are named. Apparently he was not a happy employee having been dsciplined multiple times in recent history. I was thinking he might have changed his mind when the $130.000 was threaatened, but apparently that's no longer on offer.

I'd be surprised if the Washington Post made stuff up. Journalists get sacked for that, and newspaper jobs are in short supply. We'll see. Perhaps.

The only $130000 I saw mentioned was from gofundme donations to help with the possibility of him losing his job, legal action etc, gofundme have pulled the pin on it and he hasn't received a cent

[pete376403]

Discretion needed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQ9__8UJSc4

An interesting comment on that page...
how come republicans accepted the results for the house and the senate, but they dont accept the presidental results? Which are cast on the same ballot. ?!!??!

[SaferRides]

There is a question which I have not even seen asked let alone answered. How would anyone carry out electoral fraud on a large scale, remembering that you would need tens of thousands of votes in states like Michigan or Pennsylvania, plus of course, you don't actually know in advance how many votes you would need?

[TheDemonLord]

You are not taking the I hate/love trump factor very seriously. Way outstrips the saint obama sentiments.

That's because I think you are downplaying just how popular Obama was and how contentious that Election is.

I'm loathe to bring up Race - but I remember distinctly the buzz and excitement around the first Black US President, Hell, I've said at the time I would have voted for Obama. You have the Black populace with a massive turnout.

Then you've got the other side, those who voted against him for that fact, and that his platform was 'Change'. You even had South Park do a hilarious episode about the polarization of the Voterbase.

So, I'm using that as a benchmark for what a fair election looks like and what the changes in Voter turnout and behaviour is like. When we look at states like Ohio, with a strict Mail-in Ballot system, the changes in turnout for this election are similar to the changes for Obamas - a bit more, but not 2-3 times more.

So far we have one trumper trying to vote for his dead mother and one postal worker admitting they lied - Trumps lawsuits getting swatted down left and right because of LACK of proof.

You have to admit Trump has been planning this all along. Hence his baseless anti mail in fraud rhetoric for months. You may like Trumps tasty bullshit, me not so much.

Except None of the examples I've posted rely on any rhetoric. It's all just a simple analysis of the Numbers and pointing to 3 instances that from a Stats point of view are outliers.

Outliers that all just-so-happen to favour one candidate. I've accepted there could be a legitimate explanation, but the point is they are worthy of some scrutiny.

Edit: and on another point - If Trump has 'been planning this all along' - you make it sound like he is some genius mastermind, playing chess on a grand scale - which is a stark contrast to your previous descriptions of him, so which is it?

[TheDemonLord]

Comparing like with like, the figure for the first Obama election in 2008 is either 69 or 70%. So 73% is still a high turnout, but not an outlier.

Even if we take your adjusted figures, that's still double the last biggest change in voter turnout.

In a Swing State.

Without strict mail-in ballot rules.

Whereas other Swing States, WITH strict Mail-in Ballot rules don't show the same shift in turnout, they show one that is comparable to the shift seen for the Obama election, so yes, I DO consider it an Outlier.

[TheDemonLord]

How come Trump, in Florida, went from 4.6 million votes in 2016 to 5.6 Million votes in 2020. No mention of that in all your bullshit.

Florida, after the 2000 election debacle, has the strictest mail-in voter rules of any state.

[SaferRides]

Even if we take your adjusted figures, that's still double the last biggest change in voter turnout.

In a Swing State.

Without strict mail-in ballot rules.

Whereas other Swing States, WITH strict Mail-in Ballot rules don't show the same shift in turnout, they show one that is comparable to the shift seen for the Obama election, so yes, I DO consider it an Outlier.

Yes, but ALL of the figures for the previous elections use a different statistic for voter participation compared to the 2020 election, so the whole analysis is flawed in terms of showing that 2020 is an outlier.

I expect the same has been done for the other 2 states.

I am not going to speculate whether this was deliberate or a mistake, as I do not know where they sourced their data, but it's pretty clear here: http://www.electproject.org/2020g

I might even produce a graph today for Michigan.

[testastretta]

Florida, after the 2000 election debacle, has the strictest mail-in voter rules of any

Your argument of possible voter fraud due to a significant increase in votes doesn't hold water. Florida had one of the largest increases going from 9.1 million total votes in 2016 to 10.9 million in 2020.

[TheDemonLord]

Your argument of possible voter fraud due to a significant increase in votes doesn't hold water. Florida had one of the largest increases going from 9.1 million total votes in 2016 to 10.9 million in 2020.

Look at Florida's historic turnouts, all the way back to 2004 - it's quite consistent in the mid 60% mark, same as last year, this year shows 71% - so not a statistical outliers. It's high, but it's not double or triple the previous change in voter turn-out

[TheDemonLord]

Yes, but ALL of the figures for the previous elections use a different statistic for voter participation compared to the 2020 election, so the whole analysis is flawed in terms of showing that 2020 is an outlier.

I expect the same has been done for the other 2 states.

I am not going to speculate whether this was deliberate or a mistake, as I do not know where they sourced their data, but it's pretty clear here: http://www.electproject.org/2020g

I might even produce a graph today for Michigan.

That's the source I've been using.

I grant you that due to not having finalized figures yet, the data isn't complete.

It does seem sufficient However to raise questions that demand answers.

[sugilite:Me]

That's because I think you are downplaying just how popular Obama was and how contentious that Election is.

I'm loathe to bring up Race - but I remember distinctly the buzz and excitement around the first Black US President, Hell, I've said at the time I would have voted for Obama. You have the Black populace with a massive turnout.

Then you've got the other side, those who voted against him for that fact, and that his platform was 'Change'. You even had South Park do a hilarious episode about the polarization of the Voterbase.

So, I'm using that as a benchmark for what a fair election looks like and what the changes in Voter turnout and behaviour is like. When we look at states like Ohio, with a strict Mail-in Ballot system, the changes in turnout for this election are similar to the changes for Obamas - a bit more, but not 2-3 times more.

Obama was not in the news everyday with scandal after scandal. there is no comparison. Obama did his dishonest shit stealthily like most of the intelligent presidents before him.

Except None of the examples I've posted rely on any rhetoric. It's all just a simple analysis of the Numbers and pointing to 3 instances that from a Stats point of view are outliers.

Outliers that all just-so-happen to favour one candidate. I've accepted there could be a legitimate explanation, but the point is they are worthy of some scrutiny.

Edit: and on another point - If Trump has 'been planning this all along' - you make it sound like he is some genius mastermind, playing chess on a grand scale - which is a stark contrast to your previous descriptions of him, so which is it?

Going for the second dan on your putting words in other peoples mouths black belt?
Did I say Trump or Demonlord rhetoric?

Trump planning to contest the election results due to the easily predicted mail in ballots rush due to the pandemic is hardly genius level thinking. You set an extremely low bar for what constitutes a "genius".

[pritch]

Your argument of possible voter fraud due to a significant increase in votes doesn't hold water. Florida had one of the largest increases going from 9.1 million total votes in 2016 to 10.9 million in 2020.

TDL claims that he's interested in the data. That is actually misleading. He starts from the position that there has been fraud. So he goes looking for fraud and by stretching a point he finds 'irregularities.' Another person, me, believes the professional's view that voter fraud is very rare in the USA so I don't go chasing non-existent rainbows and unsurprisingly I don't find any.

The Georgia "hand count' decision is a bit weird, I think that's their local rules about the winner needing over 50%. Thus their having to re-run two senate races. Recounts of any sort may vary the final total by a few hundred, the current margin is over 10,000. The result won't change. Even if it did, Biden would stll be president.

Last night I saw a quote from the report of a Republican electoral observer. He reported a voting anomaly. The votes coming in from service people overseas were in Biden's favour. He considered serving people voted conservative so there might be foul play involved. It's true service people do tend to vote conservative. (It was the same here, I assume it still is.) Perhaps not so much when a conservative president took the money intended to update their draughty, mouldy, dilapidated, housing stock to build his wall. He abandoned a US ally, the Kurds, and he surrendered a large chunk of Syria to the Russians. He then called service people suckers and losers. Yet some Republicans can still be surprised that support for Trump from the armed forces has waned.

[pritch]

Obama did his dishonest shit stealthily like most of the intelligent presidents before him.

Solid gold.

Trump has finally achieved some things Obama never managed. He's been impeached and he lost an election.

This is interesting, a Republican election official shares some facts. TDL will not like this but he needs to see it more than anybody,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxBaMbQMeEs

[TheDemonLord]

TDL claims that he's interested in the data. That is actually misleading. He starts from the position that there has been fraud. So he goes looking for fraud and by stretching a point he finds 'irregularities.' Another person, me, believes the professional's view that voter fraud is very rare in the USA so I don't go chasing non-existent rainbows and unsurprisingly I don't find any.

Actually, it started with Wisconsin, I had the live totals open and was watching, when one state jumped nearly 200,000 votes for Biden and none for Trump - and that raised my suspicion as something that is odd.

From there, the Oddities kept coming.