Trump - 4 more years of this at least...

[sugilite:Me]

Do you have the same utmost sympathy for the burglar whose life is torn apart by getting arrested?

For me this is a very valid point. They have chosen to be there without the correct papers, they know they should not be there - no point crying when they get removed.
However, I do feel Pritch is also right in - it is very performative. I predicted before trump took office this whole deportation thing will start off with a hiss and a roar, and then will mysteriously subside from public view as trump knows that the agriculture and construction industries in particular are propped up by illegal immigrants and that is largely how americans get the prices they do in these industries. That and most americans simply do not want to do this kind of work - certainly not for the money these exploited migrants (who chose to be there) are subjected to is a very large issue.

It is my hope when trump has finished his barking seal performance for the base to justify most of his campaign trope - is that he then actually does the right thing to fix this issue - and it is pretty fucking simple in my opinion.
1. Deport the actual crime committing criminal migrants post haste.
2. Identify the jobs America which currently depends upon undocumented migrants. Issue work visas for said migrants that are currently working, or want to work in - no job = no papers.
3. make it very easy for proven workers to reapply for seasonal work visas. Make it easy for migrants to roll over their papers in jobs that are year round like construction etc.
I believe the above is a lot cheaper than sending ice on raids and then having to ship them to their respective countries only to wash and repeat a few weeks later when they get back in the country again.
I'm not decided if they should have a minimum wage, as just making them legal would give them more choice as to where and what company they work in, and the fact that unscrupulous employers would lose their main exploitation bargaining chip would mean they would have to "compete" to get good workers.

We’ll have to wait and see confirmation of if it’s as good as they say it is. Also a lot of AI is going to be used in defence and big business applications they will be wary of Chinese back doors so domestic AI supplier still needed.
Trump and other stock analysts have made a good point about the benefit though. If AI can now be had ten times cheaper that’s a massive increase in profit margin for the end user. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Tesla etc and other big caps that will use AI are as big or bigger than Nvidia so it ends up being a win.
But we know from their stealth fighters and certain other products the Chinese are not shy of faking it til they make it.

It is surprisingly good - I tried it yesterday.
When I asked it where are the most over priced vegetables to be found in New Zealand? It produced a photo of the beehive.
Just kidding. I actually asked it which variety of potato is best for baking that thrives in New Zealand growing conditions? It gave a very, very impressive answer. In my opinion that answer was better articulated and presented than any of the big American AI's.

I see that Open Ai is crying that they feel there intellectual properties were pillaged in the creation of this new AI. I have very little sympathy, as a few years ago a bunch of my websites inexplicitly started slowing down and then would come right after a bit. Especially ones dealing in information I provided expertise in. After ruling out server and software problems, I started reviewing the weblogs and there they all were. My sites were getting scraped over and over again by AI crawling bots essentially stealing my work. To the point now If I ask google and AI engines questions within my field, I often get my own words quoted verbatim back to me. It is especially galling when google does it as it's "AI overview". Trust me accreditation is distinctly lacking and the best I can hope for is a accreditation to my website in a size 6 fucking font. So forgive me if I don't give a flying fuck if american AI companies get pillaged themselves.

I see JFK is getting a grilling in the senate over his trump appointment. Some may pillar me on this, but I actually quite like the guy.
He was getting grilled on his vaccine stance and making money from pharmaceutical lawsuits and so on. While I do not agree on aspects of his stance, what struck me as being more disqualifying is he had no idea how medicaid and medicare is funded, or operates and even the differences between them and for me that instantly disqualifies him. If he is too lazy to study the fundamentals of the position he knows he is up for - then bye bye. Yes, I know about the brain worm - people can recover. The picking up a dead bear and depositing it in central park and is bizarre in the extreme, so that one is a concern.

Anyways, I find it particularly nauseating after hearing 4 years of magas attacking DEI (with validity) and promoting competency and merit above all else as being their north star - to only then turn around and tell the north star to fuck off and willingly appoint hopelessly unqualified hegsworth and now likely rfk into to head life and death military and health departments in order to appease their orange god.
What a bunch of hypocritical vomit bags.

[TheDemonLord]

For me this is a very valid point. They have chosen to be there without the correct papers, they know they should not be there - no point crying when they get removed.

And I say that as someone who has been through the Immigration process.

However, I do feel Pritch is also right in - it is very performative. I predicted before trump took office this whole deportation thing will start off with a hiss and a roar, and then will mysteriously subside from public view as trump knows that the agriculture and construction industries in particular are propped up by illegal immigrants and that is largely how americans get the prices they do in these industries. That and most americans simply do not want to do this kind of work - certainly not for the money these exploited migrants (who chose to be there) are subjected to is a very large issue.

Is it Performative - yes - both in terms of Trump showing his fulfilment of his campaign promises to his electorate...

But also to those who potentially are considering trying it on. If people who are in South American countries and are considering illegally trying to get into the US believe that the likelihood of them getting caught and returned is very high, then they will be disincentivized to try in the first place.

There are good reasons why that might be the case - one argument that has been made is that if you consider the type of person willing to try and cross the Border - they are enterprising, determined and willing to do what is necessary to get what they want - traits that could help their host countries become better.

Finally - on the Industry point - We have a lot of Agriculture in NZ, we also dont have a large illegal immigrant population. Beef, for example, is cheaper per Kilo in NZ than the US: $16.12 vs $12.10. Now - I will grant you that in NZ the Fruit Picking industry does leverage seasonal Labour - but this is all done via the front door.

It is my hope when trump has finished his barking seal performance for the base to justify most of his campaign trope - is that he then actually does the right thing to fix this issue - and it is pretty fucking simple in my opinion.

1. Deport the actual crime committing criminal migrants post haste.

That is what he is currently doing I believe.

2. Identify the jobs America which currently depends upon undocumented migrants. Issue work visas for said migrants that are currently working, or want to work in - no job = no papers.

3. make it very easy for proven workers to reapply for seasonal work visas. Make it easy for migrants to roll over their papers in jobs that are year round like construction etc.

So - I have seen some discussion on this. A lot of US Based Maga types pointed to the Reagan Immigration amnesty and essentially said:

'We tried that, it didnt work'

Realistically - providing a path to becoming lawful simply adds an incentive - that if you stay long enough or can game the system, you get to stay. I also think that a lot of US Maga Types are simply uninterested at this point. Their rational is that there is no benefit for them to be reasonable and the previous administration was completely unreasonable, therefore they will be likewise.

For seasonal work, if the American Maga Types had the confidence that someone from South America could come to the US and work a seasonal job and then return home - then sure, I think this would be a great idea - but I think it is fair to say that the confidence that this would happen is zero.

However, let me end this specific train of thought - suppose for the moment I agree with points 2 and 3 from a theoretical viewpoint, but not from a practical viewpoint.

In order to make them a possibility, first you would have to regain the confidence of the US Electorate - the Democrats and Democrat Governors and Mayors would have to reverse the idea of Sanctuary cities and show that they are not actively undermining a basic rule of law.

When the people feel that the Border is properly secured (nothing is perfect) and that the systems in place to deal with illegal migrants are working properly - that Asylum seekers are genuine and not just trying it on and that when there are fringe exceptions, they are just that - exceptions - then you might have a chance at implementing points 2 and 3.

But that is a whole lot of confidence and trust you are going to have to regain and it will probably take more than a decade and will require the Left to abandon some of their ideological positions.

I believe the above is a lot cheaper than sending ice on raids and then having to ship them to their respective countries only to wash and repeat a few weeks later when they get back in the country again.
I'm not decided if they should have a minimum wage, as just making them legal would give them more choice as to where and what company they work in, and the fact that unscrupulous employers would lose their main exploitation bargaining chip would mean they would have to "compete" to get good workers.

So, you may be interested in this video:



which essentiallyt spells out the cost of deporting every Migrant - a lot of money, right...

I posted a comment in reply - and I am going to copy-pasta myself:

back-of-the-envelope Maths - on just one cost of allowing them to remain in the US.

Of that 11 Million people, approximately a third are under 18. This gives us an approximate figure of 3.67 Million Kids.

The cost, to the US tax payer to send a child through the school system (K-12) - is $163,000.

3,670,000 x 163,000 = $598,210,000,000.

Or, just under $600 Billion. Now - I will grant that this is for the entire school life of the child - and that not every child starts the school system at Kindergarten and leaves as Year 12.

I want to also stress that this is just one single cost to the tax payer of Illegal Migrants, that if they were removed from the country - you would not have to pay.

Now - I added some commentary and accepting that this is a very rough calculation and is missing lots of nuance - but it is to show that whilst there is a cost to deport someone, there is also a cost to allow them to remain.

[R650R]

I haven't seen a lot of actual case studies so far which show AI being applied commercially, I guess it's still too early on for that. Apparently you can use it to find a pet friendly restaurant and text that info to your middle class mates while you're strolling down some street, though.

I don't know how authoritative the tech podcasts I watch on Youtube are, but I've yet to come across one that raves about AI functionality (such as it exists so far) in practice.

Well it’s getting so good you may have interacted and not realised.

I watched a vid other week a group of four young entrepreneurs had created a fake influencer hoe online. The world’s oldest industry meets the newest industry.

Most online help/customer service emails are prob written by ai at larger companies.

Chinese are rolling out ai doctors for diagnosis

Soon all simple jobs will be done by ai eg accounting/invoicing/banking. Anything where the customer can enter all the data themselves there is no need for a human to be reading or re entering that information.

Watched another guy use an ai app that will transcribe speech to txt, translate that txt to foreign language, speak it out loud in foreign language and overdub it onto new version of same video. A relatively small portion of the world speaks English. So using that massively opens up revenue for people like itchyboots, brettkacs, max wrist etc. Thesecpeople are already getting by on ad revenue and sponsorships now they can increase their market 6-8 times over at click of a button.

[nerrrd]

Well it’s getting so good you may have interacted and not realised.

I watched a vid other week a group of four young entrepreneurs had created a fake influencer hoe online. The world’s oldest industry meets the newest industry.

Most online help/customer service emails are prob written by ai at larger companies.

Chinese are rolling out ai doctors for diagnosis

Soon all simple jobs will be done by ai eg accounting/invoicing/banking. Anything where the customer can enter all the data themselves there is no need for a human to be reading or re entering that information.

Watched another guy use an ai app that will transcribe speech to txt, translate that txt to foreign language, speak it out loud in foreign language and overdub it onto new version of same video. A relatively small portion of the world speaks English. So using that massively opens up revenue for people like itchyboots, brettkacs, max wrist etc. Thesecpeople are already getting by on ad revenue and sponsorships now they can increase their market 6-8 times over at click of a button.

That's a good point, I guess you wouldn't necessarily know. I think though at the moment, yes, you can use them as gatekeepers, or content creators, but not without human oversight (unless accuracy isn't something you need in your business) because they're still too inaccurate. (ie there are still too many made up 'facts' in the results).

I wonder if Elon has told President Trump he can replace the Federal Government with AI.

[sugilite:Me]

Is it Performative - yes - both in terms of Trump showing his fulfilment of his campaign promises to his electorate...

His trumbastic nature has many magas believing he will follow through and do the lot - mugs - ultimately I strongly believe only a small fraction will be deported - 10 to 15% at most.

Finally - on the Industry point - We have a lot of Agriculture in NZ, we also dont have a large illegal immigrant population. Beef, for example, is cheaper per Kilo in NZ than the US: $16.12 vs $12.10. Now - I will grant you that in NZ the Fruit Picking industry does leverage seasonal Labor - but this is all done via the front door.

Simply put, the two are not comparable. NZ has always had a handle on immigration and worker visas. The USA has not, so all their processes and entire business plan has developed around this endless cheap labor - if I'm wrong and trump sends them all back - they are truly fucked. As it is with up to 80% of farms workers not turning up to work out of fear in California - will have crops rotting in the fields and the inescapable market conditions will take care of the rest - that being price increases due to a shit ton less produce avilable. How many seasons crops being destroyed do you think farming businesses will be able to sustain?

Which neatly brings me to a particular part of the American psyche that I have experienced first hand and have even given it a name - "The Avocado Effect". None of your writings allow for this effect. While living there in the trump years, he said something stupid and inflammatory about Mexico and boom, over night avocados went up in price across the USA. Before I reveal the effect, in NZ Avacados can go from 80 cents each to more than $3 each - depending on seasons - and that price can change in the blink of an eye. On the whole we do a bit of a whinge, but buy them none the less because nachos just aint nachos without guacamole. Sure we may buy less of them, but we still buy them. Contrast that with my American experience. After their avo price rise - they flat out refused to buy them at the Walmart I visited near daily after dropping my orders off at the PO. For the 3 weeks the price rise was in place, I saw them throw out massive crate after massive crate of spoiled avos. They like literally just stopped buying them. The price rise amount you may be asking? Well, after the previously steady 99 cents ea all year around, they rose to a nose bleed price of $1.29! Yep, all it took was a 30 cent rise and they thought it was the end of the avo world. You should hear how much pathetic squealing they do when their already ridiculously cheap fuel goes up by a few cents! Americans HATE price rises with a passion I've not seen in NZ. They all think they are so hard done by. To this day when several of my customer/friends from the states ask how we are doing here, and I tell them we are still in a recession, all of them to a "T" go on to tell me how hard they have it in the USA and they have it worse there than us - they also think their inflation is higher despite not doing a bit of fact checking - as is the american way now
You have not taken this effect into your calculations. It will not be hang mike pence that they will be calling for I promise you. The orange fucktard will need to be very, very careful how many immigrants he returns to sender - very careful indeed. For sure it would likely be third time lucky - or unlucky if your name is djt.

So - I have seen some discussion on this. A lot of US Based Maga types pointed to the Reagan Immigration amnesty and essentially said: 'We tried that, it didnt work'

I view this and the rest of your posts points as being deeply flawed, but cannot give enough of a fuck to type out all the reasons why.

Simply put - they do not really have the luxury of kicking the can down the road as has been the way for eons. Fucktards rhetoric is not going to work forever. They have to find a way of making suggestions at least similar to mine work. Going duh, a kinda similar thing failed last time is not even going to be close to cutting it. Their politicians, house magas in particular need to roll up their sleeves and fucking do their jobs and find and implement real solutions rather than endless fucking wankathons to create their pitiful reality tv show such as they are currently doing. It is truly pathetic.

[TheDemonLord]

His trumbastic nature has many magas believing he will follow through and do the lot - mugs - ultimately I strongly believe only a small fraction will be deported - 10 to 15% at most.

Which would still be better than Biden.

So far, most people who supported Trump are enjoying his opening term.

Simply put, the two are not comparable. NZ has always had a handle on immigration and worker visas. The USA has not, so all their processes and entire business plan has developed around this endless cheap labor - if I'm wrong and trump sends them all back - they are truly fucked. As it is with up to 80% of farms workers not turning up to work out of fear in California - will have crops rotting in the fields and the inescapable market conditions will take care of the rest - that being price increases due to a shit ton less produce avilable. How many seasons crops being destroyed do you think farming businesses will be able to sustain?

"If we free the Slaves, who will pick the Cotton?"

But getting back to NZ - sure, they are not comparable in that sense - the point is that it is possible to have an Agriculture sector, without cheap immigrant labour and have cheap prices for food

In a discussion elsewhere - an Aussie farmer pointed out that the USA looked at automation options for the Farming industry and then abandoned it because they could use cheap illegal labour.

Australia took the research and leveraged it.

Which neatly brings me to a particular part of the American psyche that I have experienced first hand and have even given it a name - "The Avocado Effect". None of your writings allow for this effect. While living there in the trump years, he said something stupid and inflammatory about Mexico and boom, over night avocados went up in price across the USA. Before I reveal the effect, in NZ Avacados can go from 80 cents each to more than $3 each - depending on seasons - and that price can change in the blink of an eye. On the whole we do a bit of a whinge, but buy them none the less because nachos just aint nachos without guacamole. Sure we may buy less of them, but we still buy them. Contrast that with my American experience. After their avo price rise - they flat out refused to buy them at the Walmart I visited near daily after dropping my orders off at the PO. For the 3 weeks the price rise was in place, I saw them throw out massive crate after massive crate of spoiled avos. They like literally just stopped buying them. The price rise amount you may be asking? Well, after the previously steady 99 cents ea all year around, they rose to a nose bleed price of $1.29! Yep, all it took was a 30 cent rise and they thought it was the end of the avo world. You should hear how much pathetic squealing they do when their already ridiculously cheap fuel goes up by a few cents! Americans HATE price rises with a passion I've not seen in NZ. They all think they are so hard done by. To this day when several of my customer/friends from the states ask how we are doing here, and I tell them we are still in a recession, all of them to a "T" go on to tell me how hard they have it in the USA and they have it worse there than us - they also think their inflation is higher despite not doing a bit of fact checking - as is the american way now
You have not taken this effect into your calculations. It will not be hang mike pence that they will be calling for I promise you. The orange fucktard will need to be very, very careful how many immigrants he returns to sender - very careful indeed. For sure it would likely be third time lucky - or unlucky if your name is djt.

For the sake of argument - I will accept your assessment of events as holy writ. Americans thinking they are the centre of the universe is not a huge leap of the imagination.

The bit that I am not so sure on is the idea that by removing illegal migrants en masse that there will be these massive price shocks. There are costs, both direct and indirect (as I outlined previous) to having them remain in the country and so long as the price shocks are temporary speed bumps (as opposed to Bidens mountain of Inflation...) then I think Trump will be fine.

I view this and the rest of your posts points as being deeply flawed, but cannot give enough of a fuck to type out all the reasons why.

Simply put - they do not really have the luxury of kicking the can down the road as has been the way for eons. Fucktards rhetoric is not going to work forever. They have to find a way of making suggestions at least similar to mine work. Going duh, a kinda similar thing failed last time is not even going to be close to cutting it. Their politicians, house magas in particular need to roll up their sleeves and fucking do their jobs and find and implement real solutions rather than endless fucking wankathons to create their pitiful reality tv show such as they are currently doing. It is truly pathetic.

So, I gotta clarify a little - It is not my personal view about the Reagan Amnesty, I heard this raised by different people in multiple locations. The Republicans are simply not interested in Amnesty.

When discussing this with them, the feeling I got was that once they feel the problems of the last 10-20 years have been addressed to their liking, maybe they could look at Amnesties or other options - but they are simply not inclined to play ball.

Any concessions they make will not be returned from the other side - so why should they even bother to give an Inch on the subject?

The real solution is to secure the Border by physical means as much as possible, redirect federal manpower to patrol it and make sure that the perception is that even if you get to the border and cross, you will be caught and returned immediately.

To make the point - I am going to use two examples

Australia and the UK and how they handled illegal migrant Boats.

Australia famously said "Fuck Off" intercepting migrant boats and instead of allowing them into Australia, put them in the Naaru processing camp. The net result is that there has not been that many attempts to migrate to Australia.

The UK, on the other hand, let the boats in - and so they kept coming.

If people thing they have a chance of success, they will take a punt. If they think they have no chance of success, they will be less inclined to do so. By having a strong, well guarded border - you disincentivize people to try in the first place.

Once that is in place - then you can start thinking about amnesties, temporary visas and all the other things that can be enabled by a properly function immigration system.

[1/32 man]

As bodies were pulled from the river, US President Donald Trump launched an extraordinary political attack blaming diversity hires for the midair collision between an airliner and a military helicopter.


Always blaming someone and kicking people when they are down.....there is no science to my opinion just human nature.

[pritch]

This didn't age well.

[pritch]

Well it’s getting so good you may have interacted and not realised.

Most of what I see is painfully obvious. Wrong words, miispronounced words, full stops in the wrong place, it's often barely comprehensible. Multiple times every day I leave something I'm watching because I can't be bothered with the AI crap commentary.

The recent AI Honda ad was an eye opener for being free of the normal failings.

[JimO]

luxon could do with some of trumps attitude, tell the grifters with their hand out to fuck off thats domestic and international ...........international like dangerous bastard........who remembers him

[Laava]

As bodies were pulled from the river, US President Donald Trump launched an extraordinary political attack blaming diversity hires for the midair collision between an airliner and a military helicopter.


Always blaming someone and kicking people when they are down.....there is no science to my opinion just human nature.

True to form. What a despicable cunt.

[sugilite:Me]

wall of text

I'm really not convinced you have your thinking cap on with this one.

Near 50% of the farm labor market in the USA is serviced by undocumented immigrants.
https://www.farmworkerjustice.org/wp...NAL.docx-3.pdf

Your assertion that there would only be a small impact holds about as much water as a sieve.
The impact of indisputably soaring prices would have even more americans unable to afford healthy food. It would have a catastrophic effect on the USA in so many, many ways.


As an aside, considering the magas have been banging on about how DEI needs to go (it does), their main point has been hires need to be color blind and based solely on merit. With this in mind - can you please watch the mercifully short video below - the man who turns up at the 20 second mark - can you please point to the qualifications he has gained that made him the most qualified person based on merit to hold one of the most consequential jobs in the US Government? I'm sure the american people look forward to your answer with much relish - well, at least for the time they can still afford to buy relish.

[pritch]

luxon could do with some of trumps attitude, tell the grifters with their hand out to fuck off thats domestic and international ...........international like dangerous bastard........who remembers him

Some people we think of as having hands extended, others not so much. Every one of those billionaires that had pride of place at Trump's inaugeration has their hand out big time.

Likewise Luxon. He doesn't like "bottom feeders" but he'll dish out corporate welfare effortlessly.

[TheDemonLord]

I'm really not convinced you have your thinking cap on with this one.

Near 50% of the farm labor market in the USA is serviced by undocumented immigrants.
https://www.farmworkerjustice.org/wp...NAL.docx-3.pdf

Your assertion that there would only be a small impact holds about as much water as a sieve.
The impact of indisputably soaring prices would have even more americans unable to afford healthy food. It would have a catastrophic effect on the USA in so many, many ways.

So - again, I am re-iterating arguments I have heard made from this perspective around Immigration. I feel though it is fair to point out that many other countries have cheap food, well-established agricultural bases and do not rely on mass illegal labour.

As an aside, considering the magas have been banging on about how DEI needs to go (it does), their main point has been hires need to be color blind and based solely on merit. With this in mind - can you please watch the mercifully short video below - the man who turns up at the 20 second mark - can you please point to the qualifications he has gained that made him the most qualified person based on merit to hold one of the most consequential jobs in the US Government? I'm sure the american people look forward to your answer with much relish - well, at least for the time they can still afford to buy relish.

Given what we saw under the previous administration *cough* Afghanistan withdrawal *cough* - you could put a fried chicked in that position and it would be a marked improvement.

I dont have a dog in that particular fight though - but I do want to share this video - I mentioned a channel Sub Brief that deals with Naval News - Here, he talks about the failings of the Coast Guard, now - put the DIE stuff to the side, the reasons he outline seem to me more than sufficient to replace someone in the top job.

[HenryDorsetCase]

luxon could do with some of trumps attitude, tell the grifters with their hand out to fuck off thats domestic and international ...........international like dangerous bastard........who remembers him

the grifters with their hands out, as you call them, are his coalition partners. Who need to not only fuck right off but do so after a hard kick in the nuts.