Stupid World

[Viking01]

A little saddened to see the passing of an author that I enjoyed for some years:

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/feb/16/pj-o-rourke-obituary

Which brought to mind one of his more memorable books , "Give War a Chance". I must find my copy on the bookshelf and re-read it sometime.

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/02/19/give-war-chance-fake-news-is-already-making-it-happen-in-ukraine/

And as the author of the above article asked, I wonder what PJ would have made of the current situation (that one centred around Ukraine). Sadly, now, it's too late to ask.

RIP PJ.

[ Edit ]

https://johnmenadue.com/war-in-europe-and-the-rise-of-raw-propaganda/

https://johnmenadue.com/war-and-fear-mongering-are-scott-morrisons-best-hope-for-winning-the-election/

[george formby]

That article could have been written by Robert Fisk.

[Viking01]

That article could have been written by Robert Fisk.

Sadly, another political commentator recently passed ( 30 October 2020 ).

https://www.independent.co.uk/author/robert-fisk

[george formby]

Sadly, another political commentator recently passed ( 30 October 2020 ).

https://www.independent.co.uk/author/robert-fisk

Yup, your post reminded me.

It could just be a consequence of the sheer scale of internet "journalism" but I'm struggling to think of a modern commentator with the same clout and taste for truth.

[Viking01]

Yup, your post reminded me.

It could just be a consequence of the sheer scale of internet "journalism" but I'm struggling to think of a modern commentator with the same clout and taste for truth.

Evening.

The only political commentators that I can think of that might have come remotely close would be:

- John Pilger (of a comparable age / vintage)
- the late Andre Vltchek (who died September 2020)

John Pilger has been an investigative journalist for about as long as Robert Fisk, but he has tended to devote himself more to writing books. He still operates his own website, but tends not to update it very often:

http://johnpilger.com/articles#

The late Andre Vltchek was much more like Robert Fisk, working as an investigative journalist around the world. But he died suddenly in 2018 (aged only 58), so worked for 15 years less than Fisk. That said, he travelled quite extensively around the world, and wrote accordingly. An archive of his articles is still available online.

https://andrevltchek.weebly.com/articles.html

[george formby]

Lots of varied reports in the media today about Ukrainian goings on.

Unsubstantiated claims of tanks and Russian special forces in the breakaway regions.

:brick:

[R650R]

Lots of varied reports in the media today about Ukrainian goings on.

Unsubstantiated claims of tanks and Russian special forces in the breakaway regions.

:brick:

There existed a narrow timescale when heavy tanks can operate effectively in this region due to soft ground. If it was going to be a big push would have been full on by now. It seems two areas declared independence, no doubt some Russian forces will settle here.
People new to this conflict may have missed that separatists (and likely special forces) have been involved in gunfights with Ukrainian forces for last several years at least.

[george formby]

There existed a narrow timescale when heavy tanks can operate effectively in this region due to soft ground. If it was going to be a big push would have been full on by now. It seems two areas declared independence, no doubt some Russian forces will settle here.
People new to this conflict may have missed that separatists (and likely special forces) have been involved in gunfights with Ukrainian forces for last several years at least.

Sorry Nostrodamus, you haven't been paying attention.

[R650R]

Might pay to double check insurance policies before the next inter island trip.... only a matter of time before we have a fire in an EV on the ferry

https://joannenova.com.au/2022/02/its-just-a-ship-full-of-luxury-cars-on-fire-and-no-one-can-put-out-the-lithium-batteries/

[george formby]

I'm not going to bother visiting that site again, but here is some further reading.

https://www.driven.co.nz/news/study-reveals-hybrid-cars-are-more-likely-to-catch-fire-than-petrol-and-evs/

[Berries]

Might pay to double check insurance policies before the next inter island trip.... only a matter of time before we have a fire in an EV on the ferry

I pictured you as Captain on this - Pirate boat of Picton (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/127866621/the-pirate-boat-of-picton-taking-protesters-to-wellington)

[R650R]

I pictured you as Captain on this - Pirate boat of Picton (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/127866621/the-pirate-boat-of-picton-taking-protesters-to-wellington)

Haha I was going to post that story... humanity always finds a way no matter what fascist collusion exists between corporate business and state agencies.
Of note that boat has a tarp on side that is part of an old truck curtain from a nationwide company that’s was well known for “ getting the job done” shall we say.....

No of it was me I’d go all in a charter a decent size vessel and bill it to K�inga ora/WINZ, claim it’s latest in Jacindas addiction services program. It would be staffed by strippers to meet equal opportunities employment legislation, crooks on return to work program would man the ships operational needs. When your out in a seven metre swell you want someone who knows how to start an engine in dark without a key.
Winston would be onboard as the maître de of entertainment venues and making sure the pokie machines are all working, gotta keep the guest entertained.
David Seymour would be running the dance shows, David Bain would be delivering morning newspapers to rooms.
Scott Watson be running the water taxi to make sure people get on and off the boat safely.

[husaberg]

I pictured you as Captain on this - Pirate boat of Picton (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/127866621/the-pirate-boat-of-picton-taking-protesters-to-wellington)

look that the critter.

That said it looks like that boat though has some interesting history it was designed and Built by Kiwi entrepreneur and inventor of the electric fence Bill Gallagher.

[R650R]

Sorry Nostrodamus, you haven't been paying attention.

Well with all the gaslighting and fake news I tend not to follow mainstream
News headlines too much.... but your right it’s on....

Putin is not f($;ing about either... detonating a thermobaric weapon just outside city to prompt people to leave.... FYI a thermobaric weapon is a large fireball that’s sucks all nearby oxygen out of the air. A terrifying way too die if detonated over a city and Russian said have shown before civilians casualties are no concern....

Some sane commentary here on how this likely plays out...


https://youtu.be/9wzAJZmM8jc

[george formby]

This could explain your claim of fire bombing.

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-ukraine-russia-idUSL1N2UZ28E

On a side note. Despite the swirl of reporting on teh internets I'm really surprised their is absolutely no reporting of front line actions, artillery or armour engagements.
No reports from the Red Cross or other aid organisations listing casualties beyond what has officially been released by the Ukrainian gummint. Ukrainian forces are said to be 160'000 strong with heavy armour and artillery divisions. Russia seems to have reached Kiev almost unopposed.

Ukrainian civilians fleeing conflict areas seem to have no problem vlogging their plight but nothing of note is popping up from within conflict areas.

This is a bit weird.

So is Imran Khans visit to have a chat with Putin in the midst of the invasion.

:shifty:

[R650R]

This could explain your claim of fire bombing.

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-ukraine-russia-idUSL1N2UZ28E

On a side note. Despite the swirl of reporting on teh internets I'm really surprised their is absolutely no reporting of front line actions, artillery or armour engagements.
No reports from the Red Cross or other aid organisations listing casualties beyond what has officially been released by the Ukrainian gummint. Ukrainian forces are said to be 160'000 strong with heavy armour and artillery divisions. Russia seems to have reached Kiev almost unopposed.

Ukrainian civilians fleeing conflict areas seem to have no problem vlogging their plight but nothing of note is popping up from within conflict areas.

This is a bit weird.

So is Imran Khans visit to have a chat with Putin in the midst of the invasion.

:shifty:

Well apparently the Russians are doing the cyber attack thing so it wouldn’t take much to selectively divert or filter Comms channels much the same way FB andxtwitter shadow ban people to close to revealing truth....
They might be reverse engineering the USA style embedded reporters.... communists are excellent at infiltrating and perhaps all the “ independent” journos are actually kgb....
Despite some of the good work they do the Red Cross is a dubious organisation, a quick google will lead down manyvrabbit holes.....

[husaberg]

Well apparently the Russians are doing the cyber attack thing so it wouldn’t take much to selectively divert or filter Comms channels much the same way FB andxtwitter shadow ban people to close to revealing truth....
They might be reverse engineering the USA style embedded reporters.... communists are excellent at infiltrating and perhaps all the “ independent” journos are actually kgb....
Despite some of the good work they do the Red Cross is a dubious organisation, a quick google will lead down manyvrabbit holes.....
http://www.lasertimepodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/spaceballs-mnm-1024x576.jpg
https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BMDQxMDQ1OTMtZjFiZi00OWVhLTg4NDktNzMxNDdhZTRjNT NhXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyOTc5MDI5NjE@._V1_.jpg

[george formby]

Just had a squizz around teh internets and things are heating up.

Still not the armour and artillery which was anticipated. From either side.

Seems the UN has truly had it's day.

[husaberg]

Just had a squizz around teh internets and things are heating up.

Still not the armour and artillery which was anticipated. From either side.

Seems the UN has truly had it's day.
The UN was never going to do anything ,as its only takes one of the security council (ie Russa)to veto intervention or even a denunciation.
The USA has used this vto before as well (well pretty sure they did with Iraq)
No superpower is going to step in against another superpower if both have nukes it a no-win all lose.
If they Nato or the US or anyone really wanted to protect the Ukraine, they would have given them nukes to protect themselves which would have assured Russia it would lose also
The same will happen eventually with Taiwan and any other place China decides it wants.
No sanction are going to be effective as they will be able to rape Ukraine and its people assets any sanctions will hurt the poor more than the oligarchy.
The only way of stopping Putin is to go Putin a bullet in his noggin.

[R650R]

Just had a squizz around teh internets and things are heating up.

Still not the armour and artillery which was anticipated. From either side.

Seems the UN has truly had it's day.

A Turkish flagged bulk ship has received a rocket/missile strike on top hatch. That could complicate things....

Putin is smart he has learned from his own forces and American previous mistakes. Putting too many ground forces in early without securing resupply lines from resistance attacks would be foolish when there is a well armed populace capable of armed resistance.

You can see his goal is to force a refugee crisis on neighbouring countries (thanks George Soros for that lesson) which leaves only true believers behind in Ukraine that will be loyal to a new regime. The bonus of that is it makes it difficult for any nato response to operate in such a crowded environment... who is a refugee and who is a potential armed separatist?
So all he needs to do is shock and awe but I think heavy gear is rolling in to properly secure airports and other infrastructure it’s just that the pics aren’t getting out.

[pritch]

A little saddened to see the passing of an author that I enjoyed for some years:


Yes, The first time I read P J O'Rourke's bio I thought, "This guy should be writing for Rolling Stone." The bio finished with the detail that he was then currently Foreign Affairs Editor at Rolling Stone magazine.

I had Parliament of Whores here, and had read Holidays in Hell, and Give War a Chance.

He was that very rare beast, a funny conservative writer.

[pritch]

A Turkish flagged bulk ship has received a rocket/missile strike on top hatch. That could complicate things....


Turkey has reportedly banned Russian access to the Black Sea. How they plan to enforce that wasn't mentioned.

[Viking01]

Turkey has reportedly banned Russian access to the Black Sea. How they plan to enforce that wasn't mentioned.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/26/kyiv-piles-pressure-on-ankara-to-close-straits-to-russia-warships-ukraine

[george formby]

The UN was never going to do anything ,as its only takes one of the security council (ie Russa)to veto intervention or even a denunciation.
The USA has used this vto before as well (well pretty sure they did with Iraq)
No superpower is going to step in against another superpower if both have nukes it a no-win all lose.
If they Nato or the US or anyone really wanted to protect the Ukraine, they would have given them nukes to protect themselves which would have assured Russia it would lose also
The same will happen eventually with Taiwan and any other place China decides it wants.
No sanction are going to be effective as they will be able to rape Ukraine and its people assets any sanctions will hurt the poor more than the oligarchy.
The only way of stopping Putin is to go Putin a bullet in his noggin.

Flicking through this website did make me think it could be a resources grab.

https://ukraineinvest.gov.ua/industries/mining/

[mashman]

Flicking through this website did make me think it could be a resources grab.

https://ukraineinvest.gov.ua/industries/mining/

War, huh... what is it good for... weapon sales n resources, say it again...........

[Viking01]

Flicking through this website did make me think it could be a resources grab.

https://ukraineinvest.gov.ua/industries/mining/

The following website (or its graphics) might be a little slow to load.

https://eng.minerals-ua.info/golovna/metalichni-korisni-kopalini/

If you are going to continue on down that "rabbit hole", you might also want to consider:

- other resources (such as agricultural land) - and which parties (Big Ag companies) have been involved (since say 2004)
- which parties (western or not) have been involved in acquiring control of Ukrainian resources since roughly the same point in time.

Happy digging.

[george formby]

The following website (or its graphics) might be a little slow to load.

https://eng.minerals-ua.info/golovna/metalichni-korisni-kopalini/

If you are going to continue on down that "rabbit hole", you might also want to consider:

- other resources (such as agricultural land) - and which parties (Big Ag companies) have been involved (since say 2004)
- which parties (western or not) have been involved in acquiring control of Ukrainian resources since roughly the same point in time.

Happy digging.

Lol, I would rather say that I'm hugely intrigued and appalled by the situation. I'm just trying to look at it broadly, not dig for conspiracies.

[Viking01]

Lol, I would rather say that I'm hugely intrigued and appalled by the situation. I'm just trying to look at it broadly, not dig for conspiracies.

Afternoon.

Not implying conspiracies. And I wasn't for one minute suggesting that you should (search for conspiracies).

Simply suggesting that one could look for parties that have been progressing acquiring control over Ukrainian resources. Sometimes, such actions are not actively reported in the media, but are still relevant to the bigger picture.

Cheers, Viking

[husaberg]

Lol, I would rather say that I'm hugely intrigued and appalled by the situation. I'm just trying to look at it broadly, not dig for conspiracies.
the way i see it is not really a huge conspiracy its simple greed.

Ukraine and Russia together account for more than a quarter of the global trade in wheat, as well as a fifth of corn sales.
The Ukraine is known as the breadbasket of Europe
And this is only the start
Russia and Ukraine lead the global production of metals such as nickel, copper, and iron.
Simply put Russia when they take over control of Ukraine there rich become even more rich.
All these lands become Russia and like any benevolent dictator, Putin's rich mates get these farms.
Ukraine is home to around a quarter of the world’s super-fertile black soil
They have not previously had access to funds to develop their farms but were very close to achieving that.
The country boasts around 42 million hectares of prime agricultural land right on the doorsteps of Europe or within easy shipping of the middle east
not only that a lot of Russian gas and oil get shipped via the Ukraine to the EU.
the west has let the Ukraine down by not fast-tracking them into Nato.


In March 2016, President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker stated that it would take at least 20–25 years for Ukraine to join the EU and NATO.On 8 June 2017, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada passed a law making integration with NATO a foreign policy priority.
On December 1, 2020, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Andrii Taran stated that Ukraine clearly outlines its ambitions to obtain the NATO Membership Action Plan and hopes for comprehensive political and military support for such a decision at the next Alliance Summit in 2021.
On January 14, 2022, Andrii Yermak, Chairman of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said that the Ukrainian authorities hope to hear specific conditions for joining the North Atlantic Alliance:

As for trying to blame Biden for this anyone would have to cede that Trump bowed to Putins demands as his lapdog

Putin asked U.S. President Joe Biden for legal guarantees that NATO wouldn’t expand eastward or put "weapons systems that threaten us in close vicinity to Russian territory."According to Putin, "If some kind of strike systems appear on the territory of Ukraine, the flight time to Moscow will be seven to 10 minutes, and five minutes in the case of a hypersonic weapon being deployed." NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg replied that "It's only Ukraine and 30 NATO allies that decide when Ukraine is ready to join NATO. Russia has no veto, Russia has no say, and Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence to try to control their neighbors."

On December 1, 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he wanted to receive guarantees from the West that Ukraine would not join NATO. On 16 December, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the Alliance would not make concessions to Russia on the issue of Ukraine's accession. According to him, Ukraine has the right to protection and together with NATO will determine the issue of membership in the Alliance.

[george formby]

Afternoon.

Not implying conspiracies. And I wasn't for one minute suggesting that you should (search for conspiracies).

Simply suggesting that one could look for parties that have been progressing acquiring control over Ukrainian resources. Sometimes, such actions are not actively reported in the media, but are still relevant to the bigger picture.

Cheers, Viking

Thanks, that's the direction I'm heading in.


the way i see it is not really a huge conspiracy its simple greed.

Ukraine and Russia together account for more than a quarter of the global trade in wheat, as well as a fifth of corn sales.
The Ukraine is known as the breadbasket of Europe
And this is only the start
Russia and Ukraine lead the global production of metals such as nickel, copper, and iron.
Simply put Russia when they take over control of Ukraine there rich become even more rich.
All these lands become Russia and like any benevolent dictator, Putin's rich mates get these farms.
Ukraine is home to around a quarter of the world’s super-fertile black soil
They have not previously had access to funds to develop their farms but were very close to achieving that.
The country boasts around 42 million hectares of prime agricultural land right on the doorsteps of Europe or within easy shipping of the middle east
not only that a lot of Russian gas and oil get shipped via the Ukraine to the EU.
the west has let the Ukraine down by not fast-tracking them into Nato.

Agreed.

Ultimately, yup, greed.

A Russian controlled Ukraine would cheapen and massively increase export potential for all sorts of stuff in a lot of markets. Everything carved up and handed to the Oligarchs, again.

[Viking01]

Thanks, that's the direction I'm heading in.

Agreed.

Ultimately, yup, greed.

A Russian controlled Ukraine would cheapen and massively increase export potential for all sorts of stuff in a lot of markets. Everything carved up and handed to the Oligarchs, again.

Interesting thoughts, though I'm not sure that I quite see your logic.

Russia might decide instead to impose counter-sanctions, and physically restrict export to the West of certain "deemed critical" resources (like titanium, nickel, gallium, rare earths) - not only from Russia itself, but from the Ukraine as well (let's just call them "supply chain disruptions"). Always a possibility.

It's interesting that existing contracted supplies of gas from Russia (to western Europe) and oil products (to the US) have not been sanctioned, nor are they subject to SWIFT payment transfer restrictions. It seems despite all the various sanctions mentioned, not all "noses" (to spite one's own face) will be removed.

Just on your last point (oligarchs). This English language (and its terminology) is so confusing sometimes.

Are they always Russian ? Or can they also be of other stripes as well ? e.g. Ukrainian ? Chinese ? Western ?

How do you (politely) refer to or categorise the likes of Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Larry Page and Sergei Brin, Warren Buffett ? Are they business men (or entrepreneurs)?

Cheers, Viking

[Edit]

Realised afterwards that along with oil to US, I'd forgotten to also mention aluminium (or aluminum, if you're American and have trouble spelling).

Boeing, US auto makers and canning producers have all quietly requested (and been granted) exemptions from US sanctions on Russia. Russia supplies at least 10% of US aluminium needs.

My guess is that some other US metal refiners will in the very near future also sidle up to the US administration and request exemptions.

[george formby]

Interesting thoughts, though I'm not sure that I quite see your logic.

Russia might decide instead to impose counter-sanctions, and physically restrict export to the West of certain "deemed critical" resources (like titanium, nickel, gallium, rare earths) - not only from Russia itself, but from the Ukraine as well (let's just call them "supply chain disruptions"). Always a possibility.

It's interesting that existing contracted supplies of gas from Russia (to western Europe) and oil products (to the US) have not been sanctioned, nor are they subject to SWIFT payment transfer restrictions. It seems despite all the various sanctions mentioned, not all "noses" (to spite one's own face) will be removed.

Just on your last point (oligarchs). This English language (and its terminology) is so confusing sometimes.

Are they always Russian ? Or can they also be of other stripes as well ? e.g. Ukrainian ? Chinese ? Western ?

How do you (politely) refer to or categorise the likes of Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Larry Page and Sergei Brin, Warren Buffett ? Are they business men (or entrepreneurs)?

Cheers, Viking

:laugh:

You're a bugger for making my head spin, on a Sunday arvo, too.

But. Pertinent as ever.

[pritch]

It's interesting that existing contracted supplies of gas from Russia (to western Europe) and oil products (to the US) have not been sanctioned,

I understood that the Germans had turned off the tap on the North European Russian gas pipeline early on?

[Viking01]

I understood that the Germans had turned off the tap on the North European Russian gas pipeline early on?

Afternoon,

Think that it is important to distinguish between oil and gas pipeline networks present across Europe.

The North European Pipeline System (NEPS) relates to the following, and is an internal German - Danish pipeline. No Russian involvement. As indicated in the second link, it is basically an oil distribution network (and is under German - Danish operational control).

https://www.pipeliner.com.au/internationalnews/the-nato-pipeline-delivering-fuel-in-peace-crisis-and-conflict/
https://www.gem.wiki/North_European_Pipeline_System

Essentially, even at the height of the Cold War, gas continued to flow from Russia (USSR) to western Europe uninterrupted.

There are only two significant instances where I'm aware Russian oil or gas supply to Europe has recently been disrupted:

1. Russia-Ukraine gas dispute (2014-2019)
2. Russian oil contamination (2019)

Russia-Ukraine gas dispute
There was a gas dispute between Russia (Gazprom) and Ukraine for a period (within 2014-2019), where Ukraine periodically refused to pay its gas bills (price disputes) - but leach some gas (intended for other western customers) from the gas transiting its gas pipeline network, in order to meet its own internal gas needs. This dispute was apparently resolved in 2019:

https://sputniknews.com/20191227/gazprom-completes-29-bln-payment-to-ukraines-naftogaz-in-effort-to-settle-dispute-1077883560.html
https://www.rt.com/business/476861-russia-ukraine-gas-transit-deal/

Russian oil contamination

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-oil-exclusive-idUSKCN1SQ13C


[ Edit ]

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/russian%20gas%20pipelines%20into%20europe%20goldma n.jpg?itok=BHMxy6nY

[Viking01]

:laugh:

You're a bugger for making my head spin, on a Sunday arvo, too.

But. Pertinent as ever.

Afternoon.

I'm not going to get involved in any discussion on the Russian military action in Ukraine itself. But thought that - in response to your Sunday post - I might just post two links regarding financial and economic response to the conflict (because of the diagrams and tables presented).

Parties
In this current situation, there are three main parties involved: Russia, the EU and the US. With Ukraine "hosting the current event", so to speak. [ Conveniently ignoring China and others for the time being ]

NATO
While I understand the historical purpose of NATO (as a military organisation and alliance, supposedly to provide security to European nations within the NATO fence), it has always been a US led and controlled organisation.

Since EU inception, inclusion of various European nations into the EU (economic) circle has generally been front-footed by membership into NATO. (i.e. the military aspect preceded the economic).

And since 2000, the spread of NATO across eastern and southern Europe only accelerated. To the point that Russia became concerned for its own military and economic security.

European Behaviour
Each of the three parties mentioned above (Russia, EU, US) has its own political and economic objectives and strategies, but it is the role of Europe (the EU) that has recently puzzled me the most.

Russia has expressed its desire to become more integrated with western Europe the past 20+ years, with increase in economic ties to lead the way. But this has been complicated / compromised more recently by NATO participation outside of Europe (i.e. Libya, Syria) as well as by US political intervention (i.e. Trump; Biden-Blinken).

In the leadup to the Russian military action in Ukraine, I would have expected that the EU would have "argued and acted in its own strategic interests". But it seems very divided (both politically and economically) -with multiple entities vying to guide its direction and decision-making
e.g.
NATO - in Brussels;
The EC - Josef Borell and Ursula von der Leyen ;
National Politicians - such as Germany's Olaf Scholz and France's Emmanuel Macron.

and not to mention the likes of George Soros and the Davos crowd in the background.

Sanctions
I can't help feeling that while Russia will suffer some economic pain, the EU is also (wittingly or unwittingly) being lined up economically as a sacrifical lamb. Sanctions by both the US and EU were to be expected, but the EU seems to have been willing to "lead the charge".

One could have expected (after the last week-ends fighting and associated political comments) that exchange rates of the ruble and the Euro would be down and the USD up. As well as prices for oil, gold and precious metals up as well. No surprises.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/traders-brace-chaotic-fx-market-open-ruble-set-collapse

But it was the willingness of the EU to participate in the sanctioning of the Russian central bank - and especially the SWIFT interchange lockout - that made much less sense to me.

Once Russia was "locked out" of the dollar market - and money flows start to cease, there would logically be impacts for European countries and companies as well (i.e reduced dollar liquidity - affecting payment of goods and services; higher spreads on currency cross rates - causing higher cost of business operation).

There was also the possibility that Russia (or some companies) might chose to default on repayment of debt if they couldn't physically make settlement.

The multi-coloured table provided in the above article by Bloomberg gives a flavour.

And this would all risk being accentuated, depending upon what action (and the level of) that Russia chose to adopt in response (i.e. counter-sanctions; Russian central bank banning sale of financial securities). Those who help "start the financial fire" can share the financial pain.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/russia-central-bank-bans-selling-russian-securities-foreigners

I can't help feeling some mixture of (i) political naivety of the part of European politicians (ii) some parties stand to profit financially , while others stand to carry the resultant costs.

Interesting times ahead.

[ Edit ]

In hindsight, probably a few other points (economic impacts) that should also be included and considered from an EU perspective:

- Loss of Product Sales to Russia
- EU Energy Security
- Inflation and Interest Rates
- Expected NATO Military Spend

Loss of Product Sales to Russia
The EU obviously stands to lose trade related income from loss of potential sales to Russia. But that will have no doubt been factored in as a given (even if not well quantified). But it should be wise to check that the US will follow through and "sanction-match" those which it applies ; else it potentially risks losing market share to the US (as what has happened in the Australia - China trade sanction debacle, where the US acquired market share that Australia relinquished).

EU Energy Security
The EU - particularly Germany - is quite energy insecure, especially with the wind-down of its nuclear programme. The decision not to activate NS2 will mean that additional gas supply from Russia (other than the spot market) will force the EU to acquire gas supplies from countries like the US and Qatar (where the price differential is probably a factor of 3-5x. This will lead to price inflation, and feed into the general economy.

Inflation and Interest Rates
As inflation rises, will the EU central bank be willing to raise its interest rates - in order to try and suppress inflation ? The higher the interest rates go, the more that wages will lag, and that spending within the general economy fall off. Given that the EU is currently seeking to recover from the recent effect of covid, is the ECB (and the various EU governments) willing to follow through with interest rate increases ?

Expected NATO Military Spend
It was expected that various EU countries might react to the Russian military action by seeking to increase their NATO military spend. And indeed, Germany's Scholz just announced that course of action today. While the US might be very pleased with that announcement, this means potentially less money on German social spending in turn.

[ Edit 2 ]

https://sputniknews.com/20220227/how-eu-turns-its-peace-budget-into-war-chest-to-provide-lethal-arms-to-ukraine-1093428643.html

[R650R]

This weapon has been used extensively early on in conflict


https://youtu.be/CJfx9yOk1qc

[george formby]

Interesting times ahead.


100 billion euro investment in the military.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/germany-hike-defense-spending-scholz-says-further-policy-shift-2022-02-27/

That's quite a shift in investment.

[husaberg]

100 billion euro investment in the military.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/germany-hike-defense-spending-scholz-says-further-policy-shift-2022-02-27/

That's quite a shift in investment.

That's just the tip, BP just wiped its hands of 25 Billion investment they made with Russia.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/bp-to-exit-its-20-shareholding-in-russian-oil-producer-rosneft

[Viking01]

100 billion euro investment in the military.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/germany-hike-defense-spending-scholz-says-further-policy-shift-2022-02-27/

That's quite a shift in investment.

Morning.
I think that the term "investment" is normally applied to allocation of monies towards "productive capital" (e.g. buildings, plant, infrastructure). But I take your point.

Armaments and Related Industries

I see this morning that Germany has chosen to "invest" in a number of its own producers. Suppose it has to "protect its own" , as it wouldn't want producers of other countries to steal armaments market share (when there's such a killing to be made, so to speak).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-jacks-up-military-spending-and-these-5-companies-could-be-big-winners-183054051.html

Oil and Gas Industry in Russia

Following Husaberg's earlier post about BP, I see Shell has also decided to (try and) divest of some of its oil related holdings in Russia. Guess it helps avoid the risk of those assets being "nationalised" as a part of Russian counter-sanctions.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/300528991/ukraine-invasion-shell-follows-bp-in-pulling-out-of-energy-investments-in-russia

And in the case of BP, if the Russians let the conflict drift along a little longer, they might get an even better deal on the price (discount).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-weighs-selling-rosneft-stake-205828671.html

[ Edit ]

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/2/28/western-companies-in-russias-oil-and-gas-sector

European Responses

Following my earlier post on Europe, it didn't take very long to get a reply. All across Europe, all manner of parties appear to be ripping their shirts off and nailing them to their flag post in support of Ukraine. Very few left sitting on the fence now.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220227-live-ukraine-s-zelensky-agrees-to-talks-with-russia-monday-putin-raises-nuclear-alert

Interesting times indeed.

[george formby]

I used "investment" as it was used in the article. Cheers for clarifying Viking, I expected that a lot of it would be on home soil.

Still, they must have the wind up, it's double the 2020 spending.

"€51.4 billion
In 2020, spending was capped at an estimated €51.4 billion. The €100 billion Scholz said would be dedicated for the armed forces this year is a one year boost though the move is significant, as Germany has often been criticized by the United States and other NATO allies for not investing enough in defense."

Culled straight off the top of a google search. DW article (https://www.dw.com/en/germany-commits-100-billion-to-defense-spending/a-60933724)

And spending from the last few years.

https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/military-expenditure

[Viking01]

I used "investment" as it was used in the article. Cheers for clarifying Viking, I expected that a lot of it would be on home soil.

Still, they must have the wind up, it's double the 2020 spending.

"€51.4 billion
In 2020, spending was capped at an estimated €51.4 billion. The €100 billion Scholz said would be dedicated for the armed forces this year is a one year boost though the move is significant, as Germany has often been criticized by the United States and other NATO allies for not investing enough in defense."

Culled straight off the top of a google search. DW article (https://www.dw.com/en/germany-commits-100-billion-to-defense-spending/a-60933724)

And spending from the last few years.

https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/military-expenditure

Evening,

Understand from another article I read today that it now brings German NATO defence spending up to 2% of GDP (as Trump had earlier sought).

Cheers, Viking

[husaberg]

Following Husaberg's earlier post about BP, I see Shell has also decided to (try and) divest of some of its oil related holdings in Russia. Guess it helps avoid the risk of those assets being "nationalised" as a part of Russian counter-sanctions.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/300528991/ukraine-invasion-shell-follows-bp-in-pulling-out-of-energy-investments-in-russia

.

thats not realy divested, its written off
they might of course get some tax advantages

[Viking01]

thats not realy divested, its written off
they might of course get some tax advantages

Yes, you're correct. I was just trying to highlight that despite choosing to do an asset write-down, they still retain ownership of the physical assets.

And that they still had the option of trying to sell the physical assets (if that was possible - i.e. legally permitted by the authorities plus a willing buyer, and settlement could be made successfully - under the current circumstances).

I'm not an accountant, but my general understanding is that you can carry assets at historic cost (generally used in a tax context) or at market value. For market value, you write the asset down (to nil in this case) by debiting a revaluation reserve account. Alternatively, if you have been carrying a fixed asset at historic cost for tax purposes, you can depreciate the asset to nil.

if you subsequently found a buyer and could make a successful sale, you could write the same assets back onto the books at that point in time (at their agreed sale value), conclude the sale process, and then deal with any tax owing (relating to that sale value).

It is generally referred to as depreciation recovered if you have previously depreciated the fixed asset. However depending on the asset (and your previous tax treatment), there may be no tax implications, so you might have a straight capital gain. Much would depend upon their operational jurisdiction and tax rules.

My 2c worth.

[mashman]

Many predicted Nato expansion would lead to war. Those warnings were ignored (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-expansion-war-russia-ukraine)... fortunately people have the memory retention of goldfish and the analytical capability of goldfish shit.

[mashman]

Facebook hits out at Russia blocking its platforms (https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60626777)... :killingme. For the right people, this is fudge packed with lulz.

[mashman]

"James Wolfensohn, former president of The World Bank and CEO of Wolfensohn and Co., addressed Stanford Graduate School of Business students with details about his work at the World Bank during its transition years and how the equation between developed and developing countries is changing. Wolfensohn claimed that in the next 40 years, a global power shift will see today's leading economic countries drop from having 80% of the world's income to 35%." - description from the video of Wolfensohn's address in 2010.

:killingme... The backdrop for every future decision made for every leader in the world. Since that address, BRICS and war and more of the same as predicted. The West has a ways to fall yet, and even if this current skirmish blows over, there is a much bigger war coming given the rate at which we waste the resources they send us to fight over.

[Viking01]

Facebook hits out at Russia blocking its platforms (https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60626777)... :killingme. For the right people, this is fudge packed with lulz.

Morning.

Looking on the other side of the fence, it has been interesting to note the number of Russian news websites (other than RT, Sputnik, Moscow Times) that has either been (i) physically denied access at some point in the Internet navigation hierarchy or (ii) have been the subject of DDOS attacks.

[husaberg]

Morning.

Looking on the other side of the fence, it has been interesting to note the number of Russian news websites (other than RT, Sputnik, Moscow Times) that has either been (i) physically denied access at some point in the Internet navigation hierarchy or (ii) have been the subject of DDOS attacks.

That happened (a few day ago the Russian newsites being restricted) it was widely publicized.
Facebook have also stopped articles from being linked to RT and others.

this is how you beat putin
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60604206

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/03/russian-oligarchs-yachts-seized-ukraine/

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/russian-billionaires-lose-over-80-billion-in-wealth.html

https://www.reuters.com/business/russia-billionaires-move-superyachts-maldives-sanctions-tighten-data-shows-2022-03-02/

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/russian-oligarch-superyacht-seized-1315552/

Of course the right wong parties do not like this as the Russians billionaires tend to fund their politics.

[Viking01]

That happened (a few day ago the Russian newsites being restricted) it was widely publicized.
Facebook have also stopped articles from being linked to RT and others.

.....

RT and Sputnik: Agreed.

But I was referring more to:
- a number of other mainstream Russian news websites (not TASS or Pravda ;) ) that had been reporting on the lead-up to the Ukraine military exercise, and had been reporting on progress since
- a number of Russian blog sites that had also been providing regular periodic updates on Russian progress

[husaberg]

RT and Sputnik: Agreed.

But I was referring more to:
- a number of other mainstream Russian news websites (not TASS or Pravda ;) ) that had been reporting on the lead-up to the Ukraine military exercise, and had been reporting on progress since
- a number of Russian blog sites that had also been providing regular periodic updates on Russian progress

Russian media is all owned and controlled directly by the Russian govt so I am more than a little dubious about its authenticity. No matter which outlet.
So much so its a crime to print or suggest anything that is not glowing in praise of the govt or more importantly Putin

[george formby]

Russian media is all owned and controlled directly by the Russian govt so I am more than a little dubious about its authenticity. No matter which outlet.
So much so its a crime to print or suggest anything that is not glowing in praise of the govt or more importantly Putin

Toe the line or do porridge.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/world/europe/russia-ukraine-propaganda-censorship.html

[husaberg]

Toe the line or do porridge.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/world/europe/russia-ukraine-propaganda-censorship.html
Boris Berezovsky and Vladimir Gusinsky were two powerful Russian oligarchs in the 1990s. Berezovsky had invested in the former public broadcaster ORT's first channel while Gusinsky, created Russia's first independent TV station, NTV.
After Putin's power takeover, the media owned by Berezovsky and Gusinsky were the first victims of this "purge." Tax controls, raids by armed men, searches and arrests forced their bosses to flee the country and to sell their media outlets.


Berezovsky was found dead in his home, Titness Park, at Sunninghill, near Ascot in Berkshire, on 23 March 2013. A post-mortem examination found that his death was consistent with hanging and that there were no signs of a violent struggle. However, the coroner at the inquest into Berezovsky's death later recorded an open verdict

[Viking01]

Toe the line or do porridge.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/world/europe/russia-ukraine-propaganda-censorship.html

Afternoon.

Well, if the NYT says it, it must be true. They've never been known to mishandle the truth. ;)

Cheers, Viking

[pritch]

Afternoon.

Well, if the NYT says it, it must be true. They've never been known to mishandle the truth. ;)

Cheers, Viking

I can't see that item but Russia is widely reported to be introducing a new law banning any criticism of the governments policies with regard to Ukraine. Breaches earn fifteen years and/or a huge fine by Russian standards. This is causing nervousness among foreign journos.

[Viking01]

I can't see that item but Russia is widely reported to be introducing a new law banning any criticism of the governments policies with regard to Ukraine. Breaches earn fifteen years and/or a huge fine by Russian standards. This is causing nervousness among foreign journos.

So where is it being widely reported ?

Have they introduced the legislation yet ? And the penalties that will apply ?

[george formby]

Afternoon.

Well, if the NYT says it, it must be true. They've never been known to mishandle the truth. ;)

Cheers, Viking

Don't be like that, it was at the top of my search. :(

I originally read it in the British press, IIRC.

In a similar vein from the beeb.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60600487

[Viking01]

Don't be like that, it was at the top of my search. :(

I originally read it in the British press, IIRC.

Just pulling your chain. Google tends to be very helpful like that - it sorts all the "relevant" search results out for you, so that the first two pages are always western media sources and you don't have to look any further (or by that stage, you've lost interest). :msn-wink:

If you read it in the British press first, it's even worse than I thought - it's second-hand fake news. :msn-wink:

Cheers, Viking

[george formby]

Just pulling your chain. Google tends to be very helpful like that - it sorts all the "relevant" search results out for you, so that the first two pages are always western media sources and you don't have to look any further (or by that stage, you've lost interest). :msn-wink:

If you read it in the British press first, it's even worse than I thought - it's second-hand fake news. :msn-wink:

Cheers, Viking

Someone said "Nothing in war is as it seems". Good advice.

Here is a clip from Shaving Ryans Privates. I hope those journos are well paid!

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-teams-harrowing-account-of-their-violent-ambush-in-ukraine-this-week-12557585

[mashman]

Morning.

Looking on the other side of the fence, it has been interesting to note the number of Russian news websites (other than RT, Sputnik, Moscow Times) that has either been (i) physically denied access at some point in the Internet navigation hierarchy or (ii) have been the subject of DDOS attacks.

I dunno, sensitive governments and the lengths they'll go to to protect their people believing only their bullshit. It's beautiful that they care so much.

[Viking01]

I can't see that item but Russia is widely reported to be introducing a new law banning any criticism of the governments policies with regard to Ukraine. Breaches earn fifteen years and/or a huge fine by Russian standards. This is causing nervousness among foreign journos.

Point duly noted:

https://www.rt.com/russia/551260-bbc-cnn-bloomberg-russia/

Cheers, Viking

[R650R]

I can't see that item but Russia is widely reported to be introducing a new law banning any criticism of the governments policies with regard to Ukraine. Breaches earn fifteen years and/or a huge fine by Russian standards. This is causing nervousness among foreign journos.

Bit of a worry when worlds biggest communist country is taking tips from Jacindas policies....

[Viking01]

I see that the US has decided to speed up their diplomatic effort over Ukraine by the introduction of further fighter jets:

https://www.rt.com/news/551375-blinken-fighter-jets-ukraine/

But strangely, there doesn't seem to be any current (European) takers willing to front-foot the delivery effort. Nor to explore a seemingly undeclared no-fly-zone existing over Ukraine.

https://www.rt.com/news/551356-eu-chief-warplanes-ukraine/

Meanwhile, they have suggested that Zelensky might wish to exit Ukraine, and form a government in exile outside the country (just like Venezeulan opposition leader Juan Guaido back in 2019):

https://www.rt.com/news/551377-zelensky-killed-backup-plan/

Speaking of which, the following conversation(s) must have been interesting:

https://sputniknews.com/20220306/senior-us-officials-visit-venezuela-to-try-to-split-russia-off-from-latin-american-allies-report-1093640999.html

Wonder how long before the next attempted colour revolution? ;)

[ Edit ]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-venezuela-discuss-easing-235800705.html

[george formby]

I read that the US and Poland were having a natter about jets a few days ago.

Minor news site so I kept schtum.

Not a bad deal, give all the Russian jets in Poland to Ukraine and get nice shiny US ones as replacements.

[R650R]

I read that the US and Poland were having a natter about jets a few days ago.

Minor news site so I kept schtum.

Not a bad deal, give all the Russian jets in Poland to Ukraine and get nice shiny US ones as replacements.

A lot of countries are turning out to be “Indian givers” in this regard and realise Russia will treat them likectoasty marshmallows....
Plus there are a number of technical issues, they are Nato aircraft, will have to be flown into Ukraine bases by NATO pilots and various systems on board may be different.
It will also leave the countries vulnerable when proper war breaks out

https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300534001/why-does-ukraine-need-foreign-warplanes

[pritch]

they are Nato aircraft, will have to be flown into Ukraine bases by NATO pilots

Poland are apparently to deliver the jets to the US base at Ramstein, Germany. Then the logistical problems begin, once those are sorted, Ukranian pilots could ferry the aircraft to Ukraine.

[TheDemonLord]

Poland are apparently to deliver the jets to the US base at Ramstein, Germany. Then the logistical problems begin, once those are sorted, Ukranian pilots could ferry the aircraft to Ukraine.

From the Winged Hussars to Wojtek to the Piorun.

The Poles are always doing some of the most badass shit in history.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLVmqzL-Qyc

[pritch]

Aaaaand somewhat closer to home. It's reported that numbers of the Parliament protestors have been admitted to Wellington hospital suffering with COVID. They are behaving like dicks, of course, abusing the staff and demanding that the cause of their admission be entered as 'police brutality'. Anyone who pulls that shit should be immediately transferred to the psychiatric ward. Fuckem!

[Viking01]

Poland are apparently to deliver the jets to the US base at Ramstein, Germany. Then the logistical problems begin, once those are sorted, Ukranian pilots could ferry the aircraft to Ukraine.

Afternoon.

Just following up on your comment : Did they say where in Ukraine they planned to deliver them to ?

It's just that, from a quick browse of a high level "military situation" map published on South Front, there seems to be only one air field - in the far west of Ukraine - that hasn't already received some "attention".

https://southfront.org/military-situation-in-ukraine-on-march-8-2022-map-update/

And, should they ever deliver said air craft, no doubt quite visible on Russian radar, what do they (both the Ukrainians and the Poles) think will then happen ?

[ Edit ]
Saw the following earlier in the morning. Took me a while to find them again. Hands have now been officially washed and any responsibility denied.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/poland-announces-all-its-mig-29-jets-will-be-transferred-us-send-ukraine

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3169689/taiwan-dismisses-talk-us-f-16v-jet-swap-deal-ukraine-and-poland?

[pritch]

This is undated so may or may not be the latest. Like everything else to do with the war it should be treated with skepticism.

[Viking01]

This is undated so may or may not be the latest. Like everything else to do with the war it should be treated with skepticism.

Pritch,
Thanks for the attachment.

But I didn't seriously expect a reply to the questions posed. Which were more to highlight some of the politically stupid "shadow boxing" that is going on (courtesy of the US), in lieu of any serious diplomacy and negotiation (as requested by the Russiansboth prior to and following the start of this conflict) .

Meanwhile, while the conflict trundles on, many of the European participants in this kabuki theatre will continue to apply sanctions - and to happily trash their own economies (as an economic consequence of their very own actions). Quite sad, and so avoidable.

Cheers, Viking

[R650R]

Fluff news posted update from USA general basically saying it’s not going to happen, too complicated....

[R650R]

Pritch,
Thanks for the attachment.

But I didn't seriously expect a reply to the questions posed. Which were more to highlight some of the politically stupid "shadow boxing" that is going on (courtesy of the US), in lieu of any serious diplomacy and negotiation (as requested by the Russiansboth prior to and following the start of this conflict) .

Meanwhile, while the conflict trundles on, many of the European participants in this kabuki theatre will continue to apply sanctions - and to happily trash their own economies (as an economic consequence of their very own actions). Quite sad, and so avoidable.

Cheers, Viking

Apparently the European Commission is going to reduce its Russian gas imports by two thirds this year. I don’t think they quite understand how wartime negotiations work.... Russia will just say hey how about we turn the tap off altogether then.....

[pete376403]

Apparently the European Commission is going to reduce its Russian gas imports by two thirds this year. I don’t think they quite understand how wartime negotiations work.... Russia will just say hey how about we turn the tap off altogether then.....
It does goes both ways - Europe needs the gas but Russia needs the money, too. If Europe can find an alternate supplier then Russia has lost that income stream. Putins mate who runs Gazprom will not be pleased.

[pritch]

Pritch,

But I didn't seriously expect a reply to the questions posed. Which were more to highlight some of the politically stupid "shadow boxing" that is going on (courtesy of the US), in lieu of any serious diplomacy and negotiation (as requested by the Russiansboth prior to and following the start of this conflict) .



I wasn't going to answer but I came across that. iI seems genuine the WP are quoting some of it.

It does appear that Blinken blinked.

[R650R]

It does goes both ways - Europe needs the gas but Russia needs the money, too. If Europe can find an alternate supplier then Russia has lost that income stream. Putins mate who runs Gazprom will not be pleased.

But if swift is locked their not going to get paid anyway.... and the oligarchs assetts frozen.., literally

[pete376403]

But if swift is locked their not going to get paid anyway.... and the oligarchs assetts frozen.., literally


Yes. So how long do you think the oligarchs are going to put up with that? They will only be loyal to Putin as long as their interests are protected. It's just business.

[husaberg]

Yes. So how long do you think the oligarchs are going to put up with that? They will only be loyal to Putin as long as their interests are protected. It's just business.

The problem i see is Trump will be i assume promising them a large part of the Ukraine and likely Moldovia.
i cant remember the exact percentage but it was something like 3o people control 60 percent of Russia's total wealth with estimate putting Putin at the richest.
what you will not see is any of the conspiracy theorists or other trump supporters batting an eyelid about this or anty other Russian war crimes

[TheDemonLord]

Yes. So how long do you think the oligarchs are going to put up with that? They will only be loyal to Putin as long as their interests are protected. It's just business.

An interesting question.

I guess the question comes down to whether any of them think that if they break ranks, they can avoid a Novichok date.

[Viking01]

It does goes both ways - Europe needs the gas but Russia needs the money, too. If Europe can find an alternate supplier then Russia has lost that income stream. Putins mate who runs Gazprom will not be pleased.

Evening,
I understand the general point you're making, but I don't tend to agree with your conclusion.

Sanctions
I've spent the best part of the last week reading articles from a wide variety of sources regarding sanctions. Both Western and Russian.

If you filter much of what you've read about western sanctions, they relate to :

(i) western companies choosing to temporarily reduce or cease operation in Russia for the time being (often for products or services that don't have a material effect on a Russian citizen's day-to-day life e.g. MacDonalds, Coca Cola, Starbucks)
(ii) western companies choosing not to supply certain goods and services to Russia for the time being (but which could be resumed if political relationships were to become more favourable again).

Since sanctions upon Russia originally started back in 2014 (i.e. Ukraine coup followed by Crimea annexation), Russia has developed a significant degree of self sufficiency, largely possible due to the country having a wide range of raw material resources.

Internal manufacture and import substitution has occurred for a significant number of products. And the Russian citizen will purchase those goods in local currency (rubles)

[ Financial sanctions relating to currency exchange and cross-border payments are potentially more serious, but even then, the West has already chosen to make selected "carve-outs" (e.g. choosing not to sanction all major Russian banks ; not to sanction flow of payments for goods and services deemed critical to operation of European economies). Supply of oil and gas by Russia is one of these items.

I will ignore any discussion of (i) sale of assets located in Russia owned by western countries (ii) Russian payment of bonds or share dividends owing to foreign banks or other foreign creditors - that is a whole separate discussion. I will also not make any comment on possible Russian restrictions (counter-sanctions) regarding export of critical metals and minerals; again, that is a whole separate discussion. ]

My general conclusion to date is that Russia (and likely China) has anticipated much of the western sanctions program, and has duly prepared for many of the key sanctions since imposed by the West. And through some degree of co-operation (with China), Russia will be able to weather the Western sanctions programme much better than the EU as a whole.

Oil and Gas Supply

My main personal interest over the past week has actually been focused on the oil and gas industry. It's a complicated picture, and you should not necessarily believe western media (reality may be quite different).

My guess is that Russian oil and gas will continue to be consumed by European nations for the foreseeable future, irrespective of the Ukraine situation.

Some points to consider:

1.Sale of Oil and Gas Product to Asia vs Europe
-Russia already has a buoyant market with Asian countries (specifically China - 50 bln m3) while less than supply to Europe - 175 bln m3). Supported by currency exchange arrangement with China using yuan and ruble (not USD) thus avoiding US sanction.

-Despite non-approval and action of new NS2 pipeline, gas has continued to flow to Europe through the existing NS1 pipeline and Ukraine pipelines. Gas flows through Ukraine have actually increased since the start of the Ukraine conflict, with the Ukraine pipeline now currently running at maximum allowable physical throughput (sending gas to EU countries such as Poland and Germany).

-Any projected falls in gas pipeline throughput volumes would in part be offset by significant increase in spot prices (Russian earnings have not been significantly impacted to date). This situation will also partially compensate Russia for the non-start-up of the new NS2 pipeline by German authorities.

Since many western European countries have actively refused to enter into new fixed price contracts for gas, (with many gas contracts expiring and coming due for renewal early 2023), spot prices will mean that they will continue to pay a premium for gas (gas futures prices have virtually doubled the past 10 days).

A number of eastern European nations have also refused to join in sanctions upon Russia, and have instead chosen to ignore an EC mandate.
[ I'm not familiar what currencies will be used, and how they will effect settlement for their gas purchases. Again, China might assist Russia by acting as a transactional intermediary. ]

2.Western Companies Ceasing Operations and/or Sale of Oil Company Assets in Russia
-Russia has frozen the sales of oil company shareholdings (e.g. BP, Shell), and has also signed in law some controls around the sales and repatriation of assets proceeds. Now prohibited for up to 6 months.

[ Asset sales might also end up only being to be made to the Russian government or one of its major oil companies - subject to future decision. ]

3. European and UK Gas Stocks
-European gas stocks currently very low. Current European gas prices will hinder western European nations from rebuilding gas stocks in preparation for the next Winter.

Recovery of normal business activity going into Summer (upon emergence of countries from Covid) may also be restricted due to high gas prices.

Possible alternative suppliers of gas to Europe (such as Norway, Qatar, Africa, Australia) will be constrained:

(i)-Norway: Restricted by its inability to extract more product from their already declining gas fields in the North Sea. [ Confirmed by Norwegian government yesterday.]

(ii)-Africa: Gas pipelines fron north Africa (e.g. Algeria) to Europe mostly terminate in Spain and Italy. Only a few small volume pipelines are available for subsequent reticulation of gas through to major European consumers in northern / western Europe.

(iii)-Qatar: Restricted by virtue of most of its current gas supply contracts being long-term contracts. Existing customers in Asia have been willing to pay higher gas prices. Little ability to ramp up gas volumes (i.e. little spare gas stock available). They would also risk actual physical damage to existing gas fields if they tried to pump in excess of "sensible" throughput volumes (i.e. they risk losing connection to some existing "proven gas reserves" due to salt-water ingress into underground gas field structure).

No existing gas pipelines to Europe, so product must be distributed as LNG. Gas must first be liquefied, then shipped via LNG carrier. This is constrained by factors such as (a) worldwide shortage of LNG transport vessels (b) LNG tankage currently being routed to Asia (c) backlog of LNG ship building in Korean shipyards.

(iv) Australia: Same situation as Qatar. Not able to sell LNG to some alternative markets in Asia such as China (due to current political disagreements arising from the 2019 US-China trade war).

4. LNG Gas Supplies within Europe
-Landed LNG requires re-gasification before being able to be reticulated within Europe. Scarcity of LNG re-gasification plants within Western Europe. Significant capital investment and lead-time on build of new plants and pipelines.

[ Germany was scheduled to have started build of two large new plants prior to the last German election, but that decision was reversed upon change of government.]

-Energy needs (gap) will not able to be met by growing "green" renewables programme.

[ German politicians started talking today about a need to (i) resume use of coal, which was being progressively phased out (ii) continue with operation of 3+ nuclear power plants, currently scheduled for completion of shutdown by end 2022 to meet German "climate change" commitments. ]

5. Cost of Gas within Europe
-Cost of gas to civilian consumers (cooking and heating). High gas prices charged to civilian consumers, with likely associated social upset.
[ Same situation already being seen in the UK, with politicians already telling the UK public they will have to "make sacrifices".]

-Cost of gas to industrial consumers (manufacturing and heating). High gas prices charged to industrial consumers, with increasing loss of competitive pricing of finished products and services.

-Inflationary pressure upon economies. Likely growing unemployment due to reduction in European business activity or business closure.

6. Knock-On Effect of Oil and Gas Supply Restrictions
-Fertiliser: Oil and gas is not only used for heating and manufacture of tangible items - it is also used as a feedstock for products such as fertilisers. Short supply and higher prices will affect operation of agricultural industries in western Europe, and potential volumes of crop food-stocks produced.

-Food Stocks from Russia (and Ukraine): Wheat grain supplies might be sanctioned by Russia in turn (likely if banking and transactional systems prevent settlement of purchases.)

7. Other Oil Supplies to the US
-Russia: Biden made a TV presentation to the US public today, talking about the latest US sanctions on oil imports from Russia, and how devastating they will be for the Russian economy. [ At the same time, the cost of refined petrol within the US has recently risen and broken the $4.5 / US gallon mark for US consumers (up from around $3). This will have a noticeable inflationary impact within the US economy. ]

Only small volumes of Russian crude oil and oil products are affected, but they are still important to the US oil industry. Russia supplies certain grades of oils , desirable for use in blending and for use within US refining plants in southern USA (e.g. Louisiana; Texas). Lack of such products affects both refining column operation and product yields. [ Re blending, this also affects production of diesel, so wait and see issues with diesel production.]

-US Pipeline Completion and Start-Up: Tar oil could be supplied from Canada, but would need to be transported either by rail or via pipeline (from the Canadian border through to Cushing junction, and then on to refineries in southern USA). However, the Biden administration has recently cancelled the completion and operation of the Keystone XL pipeline (in line with US climate change agreement).

-US Shale Oil and Gas: While the exploitation of shale may have pushed the USA to the top of the global oil production "league table", production of shale product is dependent upon continued drilling of new wells (due to shale wells having short lifespans). Many existing US shale drilling companies have already scaled back operation the last 1-2 years, and many are already carrying high levels of debt. Labour shortages due to scale-backs has been a recent problem.

Plus shale oil companies (private companies) are reluctant to increase volume while prices are so high. They’ve said so explicitly, out loud and in public. The big fracking companies — Devon, Pioneer, and Continental — burned by multiple boom and bust cycles over the years, pledged in February not to increase production until 2023.

The US has made "verbal promises" of being able to ship shale product to Europe, in order to make up for projected Russian shortfalls (due to some Europe countries choosing to reject Russian product). But many of the major US shale gas fields are already "mature", and the US may not be able to meet proposed supply commitment to Europe (due to a need to supply product to its own domestic market). The situation may be compounded by increasingly heavily cold/stormy winters being experienced in the US (due to climate change).

https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/03/11/us-reluctant-to-export-natural-gas-to-europe-amid-climate-concerns

[ Edit 1 : The key point to consider is that Biden has stipulated a deadline - 6 weeks away - before Russian crudes will not be accepted. The US now has the issue of finding other sources able to replace the Russian "heavy" crude volume foregone (assuming they chose not to change their refining configuration. ]

Edit 2 : Another complication for the US is that shale oil tend to be "light" crude, while crude oil from Russia (and Venezuela) tends to be "heavy", hence US refineries in the southern USA tend to be configured more towards processing of "heavy" crudes (i.e. those provided by their main suppliers). This makes processing of shale oil for internal US consumption less attractive to US refiners.

Edit 3 : Even if refining of shale oil by US refiners was not so restricted, could shale oil drillers ramp up production output ? Looks like the answer might be No.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/its-appalling-hilarious-reversal-biden-admin-now-slams-shale-not-raising-output ]

This means that the US will have to look at other sources of feedstock and finished product (e.g. Venezuela, Iran, Saudi and UAE)

-Venezuela: US officials have been in discussion with Venezuelan officials this last week, as to whether Venezuela would join the global group applying sanctions against Russia. Venezuelan oils and oil products are also highly desired by US oil refiners (for the same reason as Russian oil products now under import sanction).

[ Past coup attempts - as well as active sanctions and economic destabilisation attempts - against Venezuela will be unlikely to gain their agreement. Both Russia and China have actively invested in the Venezuelan oil industry in order to prevent its collapse. ]

-Iran: Trump unilaterally pulled the US out of the JCPOA back in 2016, and then applied strong financial sanctions against Iran (in order to bring about regime change). The return of Iran to the global oil export market would return 1.5 -2 million barrels per annum, which would help reduce global oil prices (recently peaking around $130-135 / barrel Brent). But Russia (as a JCPOA signatory) has refused to give approval - with Iranian agreement - to the renewed JCPOA contract if it would still be liable to arbitrary US sanctions (against either Iran and/or against Russia).

[ Active sanctions and economic destabilisation attempts against Iran will be unlikely to gain their agreement. Both Russia and China have also actively invested in the Iranian oil industry in order to prevent its collapse. ]

-Saudi and UAE: Both countries have turned down calls from Biden within the past 24 hours, where the calls were expected to centre around joining in sanctions against Russia, as well as to increases in their own output levels (in order to help reduce global oil prices).


[ Edit 11.03.2022 ]

The following article mentions some other points that I didn't mention in the earlier post:

https://sputniknews.com/20220310/first-domino-bidens-ban-on-russian-oil-will-trigger-dangerous-chain-reaction-say-energy-experts-1093752438.html

[pete376403]

Evening,
I understand the general point you're making, but I don't tend to agree with your conclusion.[.

Appreciate the detailed and reasoned reply, thanks.

[Viking01]

Appreciate the detailed and reasoned reply, thanks.

Thanks. A complicated situation all round, not just in the one aspect that I tried to outline.

Only my 2c worth, and I could well be proven wrong. On this point and others.

Cheers, Viking

[ Edit ]

If we widen our attention on energy supply to include nuclear (and believe some of the Russian press), it appears that the US is also willing to do energy related sanction carve-outs :

https://sputniknews.com/20220309/us-ban-on-russian-energy-excludes-key-item-to-avoid-rolling-blackouts-across-american-cities-report-1093721032.html

The article is also notable in that it mentions the US-Russia uranium fuel deal that was concluded back in 1993, which represented extreme windfall profits for the US nuclear industry as a result (ROI was reported separately at around 3,700%).

[pritch]

I've spent the best part of the last week reading articles from a wide variety of sources regarding sanctions. Both Western and Russian.


Thanks, that took a considerble amount of work.

The British Prime Minister has produced a six point action plan. This though is an old joke, the plan is likely the only action that will ensue. There are a number of Russians who have been on the sanctions list of other coutries for some four years. None are as yet sanctioned in Britain, they still own prime real esate in and around London, and in some cases their kids still attend private schools.

Against the advice of the security agencies, Johnson even made one of oligarchs a member of the House of Lords. The current British government is indebted to the oligarchs for financial assistance and is unlikely to do anything that will cause the money supply to dry up.

It's being reported that Biden tried to call the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates but they refused to take his call.

[Viking01]

Thanks, that took a considerble amount of work.

The British Prime Minister has produced a six point action plan. This though is an old joke, the plan is likely the only action that will ensue. There are a number of Russians who have been on the sanctions list of other coutries for some four years. None are as yet sanctioned in Britain, they still own prime real esate in and around London, and in some cases their kids still attend private schools.

Against the advice of the security agencies, Johnson even made one of oligarchs a member of the House of Lords. The current British government is indebted to the oligarchs for financial assistance and is unlikely to do anything that will cause the money supply to dry up.

It's being reported that Biden tried to call the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates but they refused to take his call.

Morning.

Thanks. Yes, an hour or three.

Interesting times ahead. I watch with interest not only how the Ukraine situation resolves itself (only but one act in this whole geo-political play), but more how the whole sanctions business unfolds and plays out within Europe (and the UK).

Irrespective of what position you chose to take, all the various sanction actions taken by all manner of players in the West - aided by the unprecedented western media storm that has accompanied them - have seriously poisoned Russian - European political and economic relations for the short to medium term.

It may take the best part of 12 months before the full effects of the sanctions are felt. But any chances of a strong Europe - Russia - China trading bloc developing (supported by BRICS infrastructure) have just been shot down faster than a Zircon missile.

No doubt, a few global political players will be pleased with that outcome.

As for the whole NATO expansion and missile location topic (comprising the basis of Russia's original points of contention), I suspect that discussion has only been deferred.

[ Edit ]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-business-european-union-germany-60cd9af0e990d0e95547d2c7052f898f

[nerrrd]

Morning.

Interesting times ahead. I watch with interest not only how the Ukraine situation resolves itself (only but one act in this whole geo-political play), but more how the whole sanctions business unfolds and plays out within Europe (and the UK).

Irrespective of what position you chose to take, all the various sanction actions taken by all manner of players in the West - aided by the unprecedented western media storm that has accompanied them - have seriously poisoned Russian - European political and economic relations for the short to medium term.



You’re obviously much better informed than I, so what did Putin expect to happen? The ‘Ukrainian situation’ appears to me to be entirely of his own making, and he’s made it much worse. For both sides.



As for the whole NATO expansion and missile location topic (comprising the basis of Russia's original points of contention), I suspect that discussion has only been deferred.

I can understand Russia being wary of it’s European neighbours, especially in the light of WWII and the Cold War, but surely the only threat from NATO in this day and age is idealogical, not territorial? Will the next generation of Russian leaders with no memory of the Cold War care so much about former Soviet or Imperial possessions?

[Viking01]

You’re obviously much better informed than I, so what did Putin expect to happen? The ‘Ukrainian situation’ appears to me to be entirely of his own making, and he’s made it much worse. For both sides.

I can understand Russia being wary of it’s European neighbours, especially in the light of WWII and the Cold War, but surely the only threat from NATO in this day and age is idealogical, not territorial? Will the next generation of Russian leaders with no memory of the Cold War care so much about former Soviet or Imperial possessions?

Afternoon,
Thanks for the invite to comment, but I'll kindly decline to try and answer. This is a fairly "hot" topic at the moment, and I don't particularly want to comment on Putin and his possible intentions. I think that the man has already spoken clearly enough in the international forum, to those willing to listen and understand the Russian perspective.

Even if I tried to offer what I thought was a "balanced" answer (interpretation), any showing of favour for the Russian perspective would result in the inevitable "Putin apologist" label. Sorry, I can do without that.

Cheers, Viking

[R650R]

You’re obviously much better informed than I, so what did Putin expect to happen? The ‘Ukrainian situation’ appears to me to be entirely of his own making, and he’s made it much worse. For both sides.



I can understand Russia being wary of it’s European neighbours, especially in the light of WWII and the Cold War, but surely the only threat from NATO in this day and age is idealogical, not territorial? Will the next generation of Russian leaders with no memory of the Cold War care so much about former Soviet or Imperial possessions?

Idealigical is samecthreat as military.... Think of a super rich muscle dude semi retired moving in next door. Sooner or later your wife is going to be spending too much time “ chatting” to him while your at work.
Some would say the current leader is result of a western influenced colour revolution in 2014....
Putin is no nice guy for sure but you need to understand how his current power structures work to see what makes them feel threatened.

I do wonder though is the convoy really out of gas/food.... or are they channeling tsun Xu and maki g strength look like weakness.... they could be holding back from potential fallout zones....
And why hasn’t Ukraine forces burned that convoy to a crisp. 40 miles long and known location.
All those vehicles so close together, pick the weak ones start burning and job done....
I really think there’s to more to see before we can really call what’s going on

[TheDemonLord]

Afternoon,
Thanks for the invite to comment, but I'll kindly decline to try and answer. This is a fairly "hot" topic at the moment, and I don't particularly want to comment on Putin and his possible intentions. I think that the man has already spoken clearly enough in the international forum, to those willing to listen and understand the Russian perspective.

Even if I tried to offer what I thought was a "balanced" answer (interpretation), any showing of favour for the Russian perspective would result in the inevitable "Putin apologist" label. Sorry, I can do without that.

Cheers, Viking

Just so you know - I've not read anything that comes close to apologia for Putin.

I've had an interesting day listening to the 'Russian' perspective on this. Suffice to say I don't agree with it. It does however provide an insight into why groups of people think the way they do.

I think the other problem is very much one of Language. listening to the analysis of various aspects of this conflict from native russian speakers (which includes Ukrainians) is noticeably very different from the English reports of what was said.

[mashman]

Even if I tried to offer what I thought was a "balanced" answer (interpretation), any showing of favour for the Russian perspective would result in the inevitable "Putin apologist" label. Sorry, I can do without that.

Cheers, Viking

... and then the war started ;)

[R650R]

Well I just watched the news broadcast of the new legislation, looks like all correspondence on matters involving Russia/Ukraine is closed lest a member or this site be accused of supporting Russia.
I hereby forthwith condemn Russian actions in Ukraine or anywhere else on the globe and fully support our supreme leader Jacinda as comrade Adern is our single source of truth.

[Berries]

Idealigical is samecthreat as military....
What she said.

[mashman]

350763... just call them traitors and tell them the can feel like they're being heroes that are doing the right thing by persecuting others... to death. Still works today no matter what the subject matter.

[husaberg]

350763... just call them traitors and tell them the can feel like they're being heroes that are doing the right thing by persecuting others... to death. Still works today no matter what the subject matter.

2015Ukraine run by 'miserable' Jews: rebel chief (https://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/26181460/ukraine-run-by-miserable-jews-rebel-chief/)

2014They're gearing up to something. (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140907/DEFREG01/309070011/DoD-Georgian-MoD-Discuss-Black-Hawk-Helicopter-Sale?odyssey=mod_sectionstories). I can hear it now... "oi, pssst, the ruskies are comin after you once they've finished with Ukraine, best arm yourself quickly. We've got some cool helicopters you might be interested in, really cheap too."
Stupid, stupid world.
Iran first I reckon.

Netanyahu slams international ‘diktats’ on Palestinian-Israeli conflict (http://rt.com/news/268705-israel-fiercely-reject-palestine/)... that fucker is a Nazi!

2015 ‘Jewification of Great Britain’: Anti-Semitic protest planned in London (http://rt.com/uk/228567-antisemitic-march-planned-london/)
“It’s utter disbelief that the Jews of Stamford Hill have set up their own police force which enforces their own talmudic law on the streets of a White British city,” the post reads.
“In Stamford Hill, White people are openly spat at on the streets and viewed simply as ‘Goyim’, slave to the Jew. I refuse to ignore the on-going Jewification of my country whilst other ‘Patriotic’ organizations are busy attacking issues that don’t matter.”
So why not Sharia?

2015 lol... I've known about jews since I was a kid. I was often referred to as one when not handing something over. It's the same as me referring to people as white muthafuckas. It's an attitude, not a skin colour or race or nationally specific thing. His definition fits mine from my childhood and there was nothing Jewish about it, still isn't. Your choice as to what you choose to believe though ;).

2014 I must give you gold stars.
Good luck in the next election

[Viking01]

https://johnmenadue.com/ukraine-and-implications-for-taiwan/

[mashman]

heh heh heh...

350768

[Viking01]

Afternoon.
It's been an interesting week, trying to keep track of - and make a record of - the various sanctions that the West has been busy applying on Russia (people, companies, products, minerals). A spreadsheet is very useful. More importantly, trying to determine what is the potential type of impact, and then to work out whether it might have any material effect.

At this stage, I'm struggling to find any Russian counter-sanctions on the West.

I recognise that the Russians have chosen to take some counter-action of a financial nature, such as:

1 - extended closure of the Russian stock market (now 18 March)
2 - new controls on sale of foreigh assets within Russia, and on export of foreign currency capital (payments and dividends) out of the the country

but no Russian counter-sanctions (as in restriction upon supply of products or services to the West).

If anything, it's been the West continuing to say (i) we don't want your products , or (ii) we won't let them into the country , or (iii) we'll apply tariffs to them (which will make them more expensive to our own consumers).

On the energy front , I'd posted up a few thoughts earlier ( post # 11829 , page 789 on the "Stupid World" thread).

The only other energy related instances that I've noted since then have been:

1 - Countries like the UK and Canada refusing entry to Russian owned or flagged oil tankers (Sovcomflot has had to idle or to turn around a few tankers in each country)

2 - The EC publishing a plan [ intention? ] this week to wean itself off Russian oil and gas by 2030 (at least 8 years away)

https://www.dw.com/en/eu-unveils-plan-to-reduce-russia-energy-dependency/a-61047997

3 - The US announcing a "ban restricting imports" (not a sanction) of Russian oil and gas products into the US

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/8/russia-ukraine-war-biden-bans-us-imports-of-russian-oil-and-gas

Though it appears that not all Americans seem to believe Joe Biden when he says that he (and his administration's actions) are not responsible for the recent increases in US inflation - nor for rising petrol prices at the US petrol pump. Even after his earlier comments about US citizens being willing to "share the pain".

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-03-11_11-00-27_0.jpg?itok=2wJmkJs5
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/gas_0.png?itok=uY6O1pYE

Anyway, back to the other energy related item that interests me much more. Nuclear.

It appeared that when announcing the US energy related ban, there was a specific carve-out made for nuclear products ex Russia:

https://sputniknews.com/20220309/us-ban-on-russian-energy-excludes-key-item-to-avoid-rolling-blackouts-across-american-cities-report-1093721032.html

The average person might have thought the supply related just to uranium ore, but it's more to do with the fact that Russia has some core competencies in (i) extraction and processing of the ore for manufacture into fuel rods (ii) being able to fashion rods in the appropriate configuration and with consistent fuel density throughout. Getting the latter wrong could result in "hot spots" within individual rods in the reactor pile, a reactor going "critical", and the risk of another Chernobyl.

The United States is heavily dependent on Russia for the supply of enriched uranium. The US presently has almost no uranium enrichment capacity for the supply of fuel to its nuclear power plants (as existing US technology is severely outdated). In 2016, the US even halted the construction of a centrifuge enrichment plant, its engineers proving unable to master the technology. Meanwhile, Rosatom's share of the global uranium enrichment market continues to grow, and accounts for 50% of global production, according to the World Nuclear Association.

So when the Russians say they have taken control of Ukrainian nuclear power plants, it has probably been for a combination of reasons (i.e. to avoid terrorist attack; to ensure continuity of plant operation and power generation; to ensure safe refueling; to ensure safe storage of spent fuel). Believe me (or not) as you wish.

https://www.power-technology.com/news/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/

But regarding nuclear fuel sanctions, the US might not be the only party affected in this respect. Many nuclear plants within a number of eastern European countries might be similarly affected. Hopefully Google Translate works, and you can click on and read the following Russian article:

https://vz-ru.translate.goog/economy/2022/3/12/1148186.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

This sanctions business is tricky business to get right. Especially given some unexpected side effects (only Putin could be that devious):

https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/03/10/toilet-paper-shortages-could-be-the-next-side-effect-of-the-energy-crisis


[ Edit 1 ]
US Politicians Propose Sanctions on Supply of Russian Nuclear Materials
So much for US critical thinking:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senators-introduce-bill-ban-us-imports-russian-uranium-2022-03-17/

[ Edit 2 ]

New Nuclear Power Plant in Operation
https://www.rt.com/business/551795-finland-olkiluoto-power-plant/

[ Edit 3 ]

Russian Counter Sanctions
In a sign of escalating tensions between the US and Russia, where Russia has been severely sanctioned in recent weeks, the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, has just said it will stop delivering rocket engines to the US.

[mashman]

Iran lobbing missiles too. Wonder how that fits into the narrative.

[R650R]

How lucky is this cop????


https://youtu.be/jtoECoV95QY

[Berries]

How do you spell whiplash?

[scumdog]

How do you spell whiplash?


Sorry for the poor driver but lucky cop!

I always dreaded that happening - particularly to me.

[husaberg]

holey shit....

[mashman]

US sanctions, failing banks, and the drying up of foreign aid and cash transfers since the Taliban takeover have left Afghanistan's economy in tatters. Crypto is coming to the rescue. (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60715707)

The currency used to measure the value of Crypto is the currency used by the failing banks. But Crypto is coming to the rescue......... :facepalm:

[husaberg]

US sanctions, failing banks, and the drying up of foreign aid and cash transfers since the Taliban takeover have left Afghanistan's economy in tatters. Crypto is coming to the rescue. (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60715707)

The currency used to measure the value of Crypto is the currency used by the failing banks. But Crypto is coming to the rescue......... :facepalm:

Did you even read the article they are using it as the sanctions are working, Cyrto is not coming to the rescue, it's their only option? but it is failing as they don't have computer access nor want to give power or computer access to their people especially 1/2 the population that were born without a penis.
22.8 million Afghans yet only 380,000 users of cypto. =1.6% of users.
The govt there could just hold proper elections treat their people equally and not suffer economic sanctions, but why should they want to do that aye.
When they could use ecypto without power or computers.

[Viking01]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-World-Could-See-A-Record-Breaking-Oil-Supply-Shock.html

[Viking01]

Trying to keep track of what sanctions have been applied against Russia can be time-consuming.

Attach a couple of links of two graphical resources that have been tracking sanctions, and which continue to be updated.
Might be of interest to some people.

1. Split by Country in descending date order, then alternatively by companies and organisations:

https://graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/SANCTIONS/byvrjenzmve/index.html

2. Split by Country in ascending date order

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/russias-war-ukraine-sanctions-timeline

[pritch]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nd4xJJ5pQqo

[Viking01]

Pipeline outage: Restrictions on oil flows to southern Europe

https://www.rt.com/business/552501-caspian-oil-pipeline-market/
https://www-kp-ru.translate.goog/daily/27369/4562051/?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Map:

https://www.chevron.com/stories/expansion-boosts-caspian-pipeline-export-capacity

[ Edit 24.03.2022 ]

With many European countries buying product on spot price (and many long term price contracts expiring near end March), matters will now start getting more interesting.

Predictable response from Russia: Pay us in rubles

https://www.rt.com/business/552571-russia-ruble-gas-europe-confused/
https://vz-ru.translate.goog/economy/2022/3/24/1150089.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[ Edit 25.03.2022 ]

Predictable response from Germany: Outrage. Should provide for some interesting discussion during the two day EU Summit (which Biden is attending)

https://aftershock-news.translate.goog/?q=node/1084601&_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[R650R]

Must have been stuck in third gear...


https://youtu.be/qWC-tZY_rtw

[R650R]

It seems Mugabe is understandably worried about Due Process not being followed... nasty guy that he his he does make some interesting points lol


https://youtu.be/gH19PIVNO1E

[mashman]

Russia targets east Ukraine, says first phase over (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60872358)... should bring some relief hopefully.

[pritch]

Our politicians may be underwhelming, but spare us the likes of this twat.

[pritch]

It seems Mugabe is understandably worried about Due Process not being followed...

Is? He died about three years ago.

[husaberg]

Is? He died about three years ago.

Maybe he was worried in R650R mind "about the embalming process not being followed"

[mashman]

C'mon the native american, coz murca wants people to have their land back.

[pritch]

Reports indicate that Russian soldiers in Ukraine steal anything that isn't nailed down, any electrical appliances, meat grinders, even carpets. One enterprising thief reportedly took the armour out of his plate carrier and replaced it with a stolen laptop. Unfortunately karma came to play, the laptop didn't function as armour and now he's dead.

[husaberg]

Reports indicate that Russian soldiers in Ukraine steal anything that isn't nailed down, any electrical appliances, meat grinders, even carpets. One enterprising thief reportedly took the armour out of his plate carrier and replaced it with a stolen laptop. Unfortunately karma came to play, the laptop didn't function as armour and now he's dead.

It wasn't the best day for the laptop either...

[R650R]

Reports indicate that Russian soldiers in Ukraine steal anything that isn't nailed down, any electrical appliances, meat grinders, even carpets. One enterprising thief reportedly took the armour out of his plate carrier and replaced it with a stolen laptop. Unfortunately karma came to play, the laptop didn't function as armour and now he's dead.

The Russians are trying to steal an entire country and your worried about a laptop... I’m sure that’s going to cause a right kerfluffle at the Kremlin public relations dept.

[mashman]

Putin should be charged with war crimes after thousands die in a 'conventional' conflict. Alas, Bush n Blair go where they please after lying their way into a set of conflicts that saw limited nuclear war take place killing tens of thousands in one region (fallujahns are still fucked 30 years later) in Iraq... as well as using the same tactics in Syria with a no no gas and depleted uranium munitions... But yeah, Putin's the uber bad guy walking the planet today :facepalm:

[husaberg]

Putin should be charged with war crimes after thousands die in a 'conventional' conflict. Alas, Bush n Blair go where they please after lying their way into a set of conflicts that saw limited nuclear war take place killing tens of thousands in one region (fallujahns are still fucked 30 years later) in Iraq... as well as using the same tactics in Syria with a no no gas and depleted uranium munitions... But yeah, Putin's the uber bad guy walking the planet today :facepalm:

Out of interest, Do you have evidence of Bush and Blair targeting civilians like Putin clearly has.

[pritch]

The Russians are trying to steal an entire country and your worried about a laptop... I’m sure that’s going to cause a right kerfluffle at the Kremlin public relations dept.

I'm not worried about a laptop, neither is the guy who tried to use one as armour plate. :innocent:

[mashman]

The Russians are trying to steal an entire country and your worried about a laptop... I’m sure that’s going to cause a right kerfluffle at the Kremlin public relations dept.

Hunters probably... coz his man would then probably gt in trouble.

[husaberg]

Hunters probably... coz his man would then probably gt in trouble.

So do you have that evidence yet for the targeted civilians by Americans or the covid cures and all the other claims you make?

[pritch]

Interested to see that Cabinet today discussed supplying Javelins to Ukraine but decided against it. There might be a couple of reasons for that.

When I was in Burnham a couple of years ago discussing Javelins with the guys who train to use them. They said each shot cost about $150,000.00.
In answer to my next question the reply was that they had been allowed to fire four all that year. That's not four each, that's four total for the unit.

Their Javelins are the early model, later models cost something like $300,000* per shot. So two possible reasons Cabinet decided not to send them are that:
A) We have only a very few and
B) they are embarrassingly out of date.






* I can't remember the exact amount but it was seriously large and in that general region.

[husaberg]

Interested to see that Cabinet today discussed supplying Javelins to Ukraine but decided against it. There might be a couple of reasons for that.

When I was in Burnham a couple of years ago discussing Javelins with the guys who train to use them. They said each shot cost about $150,000.00.
In answer to my next question the reply was that they had been allowed to fire four all that year. That's not four each, that's four total for the unit.

Their Javelins are the early model, later models cost something like $300,000* per shot. So two possible reasons Cabinet decided not to send them are that:
A) We have only a very few and
B) they are embarrassingly out of date.






* I can't remember the exact amount but it was seriously large and in that general region.


When we had the Sidewinders for the A4's i am pretty sure they were only allowed to use them when they were due to time out.

[pritch]

When we had the Sidewinders for the A4's i am pretty sure they were only allowed to use them when they were due to time out.

That has the ring of truth.

[husaberg]

That has the ring of truth.

We used the AIM-9G version with the pre-kahu Skyhawk. All of the live ones were fired as they went time-ex in the mid/late '80s. Some of the CATM versions are still around the RNZAF for training aids and at the Air Force Museum at Wigram on display.

We bought 100 AIM-9Ls in the late 80s as part of the Kahu update and only fired one of them.

Like all weapons the AIM-9's (including the training CATM version) were tightly controlled. We weren't even allowed to keep the CATMs on the aircraft in the hangar overnight at Ohakea (insufficient security). They were taken away each night and stored in a nice secure location on base and dropped back in the morning (with one of the Squadron Armament SNCOs signing for them each day). Interestingly when we were deployed overseas we left them on the aircraft because they were real Air Forces and had real security!

I heard a while ago the live AIM-9L's had been sold to a middle east US State Dept approved buyer. The CATMLs may be going to the US with the aircraft that have been sold? NZ6254 at Wigram has one fitted.

The Skyhawk never used the AIM-7 (it needed an air-to-air radar which the original Skyhawk didn't have, although the APG-66 in the Kahu Skyhawks, with a few software tweaks could have successfully illuminated a target for a Sparrow or AMRAM).

So your chances of acquiring one is... zero. Best to make a replica. The Ashburton Aviation Museum have made a replica for their Harrier and no doubt will do the same for their Skyhawk.
Don Simms ex RNZAF AVTECH 1984-2001
https://rnzaf.proboards.com/thread/14977/rnzaf-aim-9s



From Google.
look like i heard right, i never knew we had that many of the late ones though.
i think the only time we used a Skyhawk in anger was a burst from the cannon at a unarmed fishing boat.

oh google delivers again
http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/5875808/MOTAT-reassembles-iconic-Skyhawk


"This Skyhawk, NZ6206, is the only RNZAF Skyhawk to have ever fired a shot in anger and it is certainly fitting to be displayed in the new Aviation Display Hall where New Zealanders can see an important piece of NZ aviation history."

The RNZAF NZ6206 Skyhawk shot 20mm cannon rounds over the bows of an illegal Taiwanese fishing boat plundering the West Coast of the North Island's huge squid populations in 1976.

what i didnt know was we had sea saprrows
i remember the leanders having the aussie missles ikiras (SP)

looks like they (the sparrows)were replaced by these
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAMM_(missile_family)

[TheDemonLord]

There's a very interesting parallel between the above posts and the various sources (from here and elsewhere) about the Police Firearms officers having a tiny allowance for training rounds.

[R650R]

Interested to see that Cabinet today discussed supplying Javelins to Ukraine but decided against it. There might be a couple of reasons for that.

When I was in Burnham a couple of years ago discussing Javelins with the guys who train to use them. They said each shot cost about $150,000.00.
In answer to my next question the reply was that they had been allowed to fire four all that year. That's not four each, that's four total for the unit.

Their Javelins are the early model, later models cost something like $300,000* per shot. So two possible reasons Cabinet decided not to send them are that:
A) We have only a very few and
B) they are embarrassingly out of date.

* I can't remember the exact amount but it was seriously large and in that general region.

Your numbers are pretty close to what I worked out via peril of exchange rates and a bit of googling.
In 2006 the govt committed to buying 24 launchers plus extra missles and training as part of a $26 million modernisation annoynced in 2001.....
You can bet our forces/sas took some to Afghanistan and used/lost as required.
Apparently just after the extra missles were delivered the contract repair and maintenance program from manufacturer was deemed too expensive so we bought extra spare parts ourselves.
Given the era they were purchased in I think the intended target should were more likely the threat of alqueda sleeper cells in NZ driving at sensitive targets with suicide trucks etc.... cause seriously whose tanks did they ever think we will be shooting at????
Kinda like our anti submarine warfare, just whose subs are we going to depth charge without being nuked in return, it’s a fantasy.....
So I concur we prob barely got enough available to train and keep our current forces proficient in their use.

[pritch]

Y
Given the era they were purchased in I think the intended target should were more likely the threat of alqueda sleeper cells in NZ driving at sensitive targets with suicide trucks etc.... cause seriously whose tanks did they ever think we will be shooting at????


The army usually trains with an anti tank weapon even if some were only sad joke status. They need to in case they get sent somewhere the enemy does have armoured vehicles. M72s were used in Vietnam long before the NVA had tanks there. The M72 was effective against bunkers. Similarly the Javelin can be used against helicopters as well as tanks.

Currently it's Friday evening and I'm about to appreciate a crafty little hazy IPA. Interesting name, "Russian Warship Go F* Yourself".

[mashman]

New Hunter Biden revelations raise counterintelligence questions (https://news.yahoo.com/new-hunter-biden-revelations-raise-counter-intelligence-questions-090046438.html)... lol@new. They've had the machine for number of years. Does China have the Bidens over a barrel or is it just, as George Carlin mentioned, "A big club ... and you ain't in it.". No question mark for a reason.

[R650R]

The army usually trains with an anti tank weapon even if some were only sad joke status. They need to in case they get sent somewhere the enemy does have armoured vehicles. M72s were used in Vietnam long before the NVA had tanks there. The M72 was effective against bunkers. Similarly the Javelin can be used against helicopters as well as tanks.

Currently it's Friday evening and I'm about to appreciate a crafty little hazy IPA. Interesting name, "Russian Warship Go F* Yourself".


https://youtu.be/eCs4abeOKuU

[pritch]

Yeah, like la lot of good jokes there's truth in that. Pak n Save ads set off cognitive dissonances. Every day low price $11.99 a can.

[R650R]

Could you imagine if a male host used this insult to a female in current climate.....

https://i.stuff.co.nz/entertainment/tv-radio/128367374/bsa-dismisses-complaint-after-kerre-mcivor-dubs-caller-sad-pathetic-creature

[george formby]

:shit:

I know Gerbils and Geckos used to be a thing, and the odd Coke bottle, but a dumbell?

With pictures!

https://nz.yahoo.com/news/bizarre-2-kg-find-inside-mans-rectum-223422284.html

[R650R]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/opinion/128368393/what-does-waka-kotahi-know-about-the-bitumen-market-we-should-be-worried

[mashman]

Patel personally approved Rwanda plan launch after civil servant concerns (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61126360)... so full of fail it defies belief... although free flights to Africa is a great way to keep airlines afloat.

[Dadpole]

I had the bad idea of taking a wander through the open petitions section of NZ Parliament today and stumbled upon this gem.

https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/petitions/document/PET_121096/petition-of-stephan-blackford-amend-electoral-act-to-make

Will any of you be kind and double his tally?

Who knows what other madness lies in there....

[R650R]

I had the bad idea of taking a wander through the open petitions section of NZ Parliament today and stumbled upon this gem.

https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/petitions/document/PET_121096/petition-of-stephan-blackford-amend-electoral-act-to-make

Will any of you be kind and double his tally?

Who knows what other madness lies in there....

That’s hilarious. Could be false flag or an FBI style patsy being set up though given the narrative being promoted by our security services.....

[R650R]

Patel personally approved Rwanda plan launch after civil servant concerns (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61126360)... so full of fail it defies belief... although free flights to Africa is a great way to keep airlines afloat.

After experiencing the Syrian refugee crisis the poms know what’s coming if the Ukraine fiasco goes on longer or expands to other nations.
They’re not in a hurry to experience all that again. The satirists could have fun with all the absurdity involved... “We stand with Ukraine as long as you stay and fight/die in your own country, ohhh you want to come live here yeah nah cobber...”
Dumping a whole heap of east European people into sub Saharan Africa has major health implications too.... Ebola/aids super virus outbreak anyone?????

[Dadpole]

I expect they are only thinking of sending non-white refugees to Rwanda.

[mashman]

After experiencing the Syrian refugee crisis the poms know what’s coming if the Ukraine fiasco goes on longer or expands to other nations.
They’re not in a hurry to experience all that again. The satirists could have fun with all the absurdity involved... “We stand with Ukraine as long as you stay and fight/die in your own country, ohhh you want to come live here yeah nah cobber...”
Dumping a whole heap of east European people into sub Saharan Africa has major health implications too.... Ebola/aids super virus outbreak anyone?????

I seem to remember a few grumbles from the local adults back in the day when it was Poland or Slovakians etc... Poms iz well used to their share of the quota.

[pritch]

Priti Patel is not only thick, she's exceedingly nasty. I can't be bothered checking right now, but I seem to recall her family arrived in Britain as refugees from Uganda. Talk about pulling the ladder up behind you.

Oh, and another interesting titbit from Boris' clown show cabinet. It's reporte that 17 of the 22 would not confirm that they weren't using tax havens or non dom status to avoid paying tax.

[pritch]

Silly name syndrome has been a thing for some time. Too many kids these days are christened with silly names and their names regularly feature in the court news. Basically they have no chance in life because their father was a brain dead moron.

The latest example being the late Kaoss Price.

[onearmedbandit]

Silly name syndrome has been a thing for some time. Too many kids these days are christened with silly names and their names regularly feature in the court news. Basically they have no chance in life because their father was a brain dead moron.

The latest example being the late Kaoss Price.

Hey that's sexist, plenty of brain dead moron mums doing this too ;)

[pritch]

Hey that's sexist, plenty of brain dead moron mums doing this too ;)



Nothing in this disproves my theory.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/128395311/kaoss-prices-father-granted-bail-from-prison-three-days-after-fatal-police-shooting

[onearmedbandit]

Nothing in this disproves my theory.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/128395311/kaoss-prices-father-granted-bail-from-prison-three-days-after-fatal-police-shooting

Hmmm I wasn't trying to disprove it, rather just adding to it.

[TheDemonLord]

Nothing in this disproves my theory.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/128395311/kaoss-prices-father-granted-bail-from-prison-three-days-after-fatal-police-shooting

"The apple did not fall far from the tree"

But as harsh as that sounds - the interesting question should be: what could and what ought to have been done here to break the cycle?

When I figure that one out, I'll collect my Nobel prize.

[sugilite]

"The apple did not fall far from the tree"

But as harsh as that sounds - the interesting question should be: what could and what ought to have been done here to break the cycle?

When I figure that one out, I'll collect my Nobel prize.

How about paper towels? They seem to fix a lot of issues, just look at those happy excited faces waiting to receive their treasure? Everyone can benefit from a small hands out :eek:

https://resources.stuff.co.nz/content/dam/images/1/m/3/c/e/m/image.related.StuffLandscapeSixteenByNine.1240x700 .1m38z8.png/1507156184599.jpg?format=pjpg&optimize=medium

[TheDemonLord]

How about paper towels? They seem to fix a lot of issues, just look at those happy excited faces waiting to receive their treasure? Everyone can benefit from a small hands out :eek:

I mean, still better than anything Biden has given to the American people...

[sugilite]

I mean, still better than anything Biden has given to the American people...

You under estimate how much Americans like cheap gardeners and home handy people :yes:;)

[TheDemonLord]

You under estimate how much Americans like cheap gardeners and home handy people :yes:;)

I don't doubt there's a certain segment of society that really likes Cheap Gardeners, Cheap Nannies and Cheap labour in general.

But I don't think it's the working or middle class...

[sugilite]

I don't doubt there's a certain segment of society that really likes Cheap Gardeners, Cheap Nannies and Cheap labour in general.

But I don't think it's the working or middle class...

Like a certain wealthy golf course owner for instance?

[pritch]

I don't doubt there's a certain segment of society that really likes Cheap Gardeners, Cheap Nannies and Cheap labour in general.

But I don't think it's the working or middle class...

Wot middle class?

Fact is that Biden aleady did more for the people than Trump ever did. There woud have been even more if the Republicans hadn't opposed everything he tried to do. Even so his employment figures are good for most people and way outstrip Trumps.

Meanwhile Florida bans math text books 'cause CRT. Tragic fuckwits. Mind you, if the people actually learned arithmetic they'd figure out that 80 million is bigger than 70 million and the GOP can't have that.

[husaberg]

Wot middle class?

Fact is that Biden aleady did more for the people than Trump ever did. There woud have been even more if the Republicans hadn't opposed everything he tried to do. Even so his employment figures are good for most people and way outstrip Trumps.

Meanwhile Florida bans math text books 'cause CRT. Tragic fuckwits. Mind you, if the people actually learned arithmetic they'd figure out that 80 million is bigger than 70 million and the GOP can't have that.

Trump: I've done more for Black people than anyone, maybe Lincoln
https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/trump-says-he-has-done-more-for-black-people-than-anyone-with-possible-exception-of-lincoln-88141381811

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/05/PSDT_03.25.19_race_update-14.png
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRy-V4kRYPjsMdPSsA5fLEaBx2ENiSloV48Hg&usqp=CAU
350975https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/174E/production/_99766950_ustaxes-nc.png
https://itep.sfo2.digitaloceanspaces.com/Slide2v2.jpghttps://www.thebalance.com/thmb/s4GAUDWLPk0zeq_nzm81-0ILZh8=/760x506/filters:fill(auto,1)/trump-s-tax-plan-how-it-affects-you-4113968-6d78115126514c15a71278d826a751ed.gif

[TheDemonLord]

Wot middle class?

Fact is that Biden aleady did more for the people than Trump ever did.

Oh I agree - he has done more for people....

Just none of it positive.


There woud have been even more if the Republicans hadn't opposed everything he tried to do.

Yes, more inflation, more government regulation, more government spending.


Even so his employment figures are good for most people and way outstrip Trumps.

For most people - interesting qualification there... I'm sure if I digged into the source of that statement, we'd see the comparison between the post-Covid employment figures with whatever Biden has.


Meanwhile Florida bans math text books 'cause CRT. Tragic fuckwits.

Why should there be any mention of anything to do with Race in a Maths book?

But just for you Pritch:

https://equitablemath.org/

Let's look at their Partners first:

Association of California School Administrators
California Association for Bilingual Education
California Association of African-American Superintendents and Administrators
California Math Project
California Partnership for Math and Science Education
California STEM Network
Californians Dedicated to Education Foundation
Californians Together

And further down the page:

We also wish to thank the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for their generous financial support of this project.

I think we can safely say this isn't some small-scale operation.

I want to point out as well - this is Maths and grade 6-8 (so Pre-teens)

Let's take a look at the Glossary section - I see some suspicious citations - Ibram X Kendi for example (a leading CRT scholar).
But wait! what's this under the section for Racism - they cite this link:

https://www.dismantlingracism.org/racism-defined.html


The definition of racism offered here is grounded in Critical Race Theory, a movement started in the 1970s by activists and scholars committed to the study and transformation of traditional relationships of race to racism and power. CRT was initially grounded in the law and has since expanded to other fields. CRT also has an activist dimension because it not only tries to understand our situation but to change it.

I've highlighted the relevant parts for you. Remember how you swore black and blue that it's not being taught in schools? Well here we have a Maths toolkit, that specifically cites CRT, aimed at pre-teens.

This is what is meant when it is said 'CRT is being taught in Schools'.

Now, I could have made the claim on the face of that website - simply on a number of give-away terms: "Intersectionality", "Praxis", "Critical xxxxx" - but you'd have said 'nooooo but it doesn't SAY CRT' - so now you have it, explicitly stated in black and white - CRT is being taught in schools.

[TheDemonLord]

Trump: I've done more for Black people than anyone, maybe Lincoln


Yes, when you pay disproportionately the largest amount of tax, any changes in tax are going to be disproportional.

Clap. Clap.

Now try and make a point that doesn't need the complete abuse of Maths.

[R650R]

Yes, when you pay disproportionately the largest amount of tax, any changes in tax are going to be disproportional.

Clap. Clap.

Now try and make a point that doesn't need the complete abuse of Maths.

That’s pure gold....

Funny how you’ll never hear the poor claim about their disproportionate use of govt services compared to their contribution...
Wealthier person; more likely to have private health care/insurance, private security managing property, private education for kids, less likely to produce offspring that are a permenant burden on the state via benefits/crime/substance abuse driven health issues.
Perhaps we should just live like Russia, everyone give everything to the state then we all live great lives with no economic disparities at all

[R650R]

540km/h.... first logstrike or submerged shipping container should be interesting....

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/128397643/transport-revolution-touted-electric-seagliders-to-connect-nz-cities-by-2025

[george formby]

540km/h.... first logstrike or submerged shipping container should be interesting....

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/128397643/transport-revolution-touted-electric-seagliders-to-connect-nz-cities-by-2025

Er, I read it as the glider being a few metres above the water most of the time. Ground force effect and all that.

Should imagine swell and wind speed would impact regular services more than hitting a random floater.

[pete376403]

Er, I read it as the glider being a few metres above the water most of the time. Ground force effect and all that.

Should imagine swell and wind speed would impact regular services more than hitting a random floater.

It's been done before "caspian sea monster" . Not electric but same principles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caspian_Sea_Monster

[george formby]

It's been done before "caspian sea monster" . Not electric but same principles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caspian_Sea_Monster

IIRC the carcass is still sat on a beach somewhere. The Merckan's tried it, too. Howard Hughes is ringing a bell. Don't quote me, though.

[husaberg]

That’s pure gold....

Perhaps we should just live like Russia, everyone give everything to the state then we all live great lives with no economic disparities at all

Are you really that diminished capacity you can't figure out that Russia is not communist but is a right-wing dictatorship where 1 percent have 40 percent of the wealth.

Russia’s 500 Super Rich Wealthier Than Poorest 99.8%
The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) found that Russia’s financial elite — the approximately 500 individuals with a net worth of more than $100 million — controlled 40% of the country’s entire household wealth.
That was three times the global average, where the super rich’s net worth makes up a combined 13% of total wealth.
A Forbes report previously found the wealth of Russia’s billionaires surged 45% during the pandemic, while the Financial Times reported that the wealth of Russia’s richest citizens makes up a higher share of the country’s GDP than in any other major economy.

At a combined $640 billion, BCG found the wealth of the richest 500, who make up less than 0.001% of Russia’s population, was higher than that of the poorest 114.6 million, or 99.8% of the adult population.

[husaberg]

It's been done before "caspian sea monster" . Not electric but same principles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caspian_Sea_Monster

it was commercialised and used on island hopper planes in the Caribbean but i cant find the name
but here is another version

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-axyaDv_2lQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbdSpXvcxMU

You can also get a kitset verson


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30Ocbz-3lG0
it's a neat phenomenon from what i understand its what makes it hard to land a plane as you have to force it down.

[george formby]

Wood nut a 21st century electric hovercraft work just as well if not betterer?

[husaberg]

Wood nut a 21st century electric hovercraft work just as well if not betterer?

no.... ground effect is so much more

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRThDxlqMVg
https://youtu.be/DnYcIWvHHdc

[pete376403]

IIRC the carcass is still sat on a beach somewhere. The Merckan's tried it, too. Howard Hughes is ringing a bell. Don't quote me, though. I think the spruce goose was a real airplane, even if it only got to fly the one time.

[TheDemonLord]

I think the spruce goose was a real airplane, even if it only got to fly the one time.

Definitely real, although ill-fated.

WIGs or the Russian 'Ekranoplans' are awesome.

[husaberg]

https://dai.ly/xcfera

[george formby]

Top trumps.

https://newatlas.com/aircraft/airyacht-airship-yacht/

[Berries]

F.A.B. Scott

[pritch]

Oh I agree - he has done more for people....

Just none of it positive.



Yes, more inflation, more government regulation, more government spending.



For most people - interesting qualification there... I'm sure if I digged into the source of that statement, we'd see the comparison between the post-Covid employment figures with whatever Biden has.



Why should there be any mention of anything to do with Race in a Maths book?

But just for you Pritch:

https://equitablemath.org/

Let's look at their Partners first:

Association of California School Administrators
California Association for Bilingual Education
California Association of African-American Superintendents and Administrators
California Math Project
California Partnership for Math and Science Education
California STEM Network
Californians Dedicated to Education Foundation
Californians Together

And further down the page:

We also wish to thank the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for their generous financial support of this project.

I think we can safely say this isn't some small-scale operation.

I want to point out as well - this is Maths and grade 6-8 (so Pre-teens)

Let's take a look at the Glossary section - I see some suspicious citations - Ibram X Kendi for example (a leading CRT scholar).
But wait! what's this under the section for Racism - they cite this link:

https://www.dismantlingracism.org/racism-defined.html



I've highlighted the relevant parts for you. Remember how you swore black and blue that it's not being taught in schools? Well here we have a Maths toolkit, that specifically cites CRT, aimed at pre-teens.

This is what is meant when it is said 'CRT is being taught in Schools'.

Now, I could have made the claim on the face of that website - simply on a number of give-away terms: "Intersectionality", "Praxis", "Critical xxxxx" - but you'd have said 'nooooo but it doesn't SAY CRT' - so now you have it, explicitly stated in black and white - CRT is being taught in schools.

Well, I can see that you put some effort into that, but of course it was misdirected. CRT is not taught in schools. What you think is CRT is a Republican party construct designed to keep their base agitated. And it's working. See also: Sharia Law, caravans. voter fraud, immigration, trans people & bathrooms, etc etc etc. *

As for race in text books, it's a case of follow the money. Glen Younkin, the recently elected Republican Governor of Virginia, owns or has a signifificant financial interest in the publisher of the text books not affected by De Santis' ban. What a coincidence.

Anyhoo DeSantis has moved on. He has declared war on Mickey Mouse because Mickey didn't support his "Don't say gay" homophobic legislation. Another transprent ploy to keep the base on the boil.


* Oh, and there was the pisstake about kids in school who identified as cats being provided with litter trays. One inbred southern politician even brought this up in a speech, he thought it was a real thing.

[husaberg]

Well, I can see that you put some effort into that, but of course it was misdirected. CRT is not taught in schools. What you think is CRT is a Republican party construct designed to keep their base agitated. And it's working. See also: Sharia Law, caravans. voter fraud, immigration, trans people & bathrooms, etc etc etc. *

As for race in text books, it's a case of follow the money. Glen Younkin, the recently elected Republican Governor of Virginia, owns or has a signifificant financial interest in the publisher of the text books not affected by De Santis' ban. What a coincidence.

Anyhoo DeSantis has moved on. He has declared war on Mickey Mouse because Mickey didn't support his "Don't say gay" homophobic legislation. Another transprent ploy to keep the base on the boil.


* Oh, and there was the pisstake about kids in school who identified as cats being provided with litter trays. One inbred southern politician even brought this up in a speech, he thought it was a real thing.

It just so happens to be the case that Disney is not a major Republican party donor...
giving far more to democrates
https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/walt-disney-co/summary?id=d000000128


TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — A rift between Walt Disney Co. and Florida’s Republican leaders escalated on Friday when the California-based entertainment giant pledged to stop donating to political campaigns in the state over the controversial legislation branded the “Don’t Say Gay” bill.

Disney donated some $4.8 million to Florida candidates in the 2020 election cycle, campaign finance reports show. Disney during the 2020 election cycle donated $913,000 to the Republican Party of Florida and another $586,000 to GOP Senate campaigns, records show. The company also donated $313,000 to the Florida Democratic Party and $50,000 directly to DeSantis.Disney has over 70,000 employees in Florida

[TheDemonLord]

Well, I can see that you put some effort into that, but of course it was misdirected. CRT is not taught in schools. What you think is CRT is a Republican party construct designed to keep their base agitated. And it's working. See also: Sharia Law, caravans. voter fraud, immigration, trans people & bathrooms, etc etc etc. *

The funny part is I didn't need to put much effort into it at all. That's how blatant they've become with pushing this crap.

But I have to ask - what is your standard of evidence?

You've got MATHS - a 'pure' subject that has no need to mention anything to do with any form of Race, Ethnicity, Sex, Gender etc. 'toolkit', sponsored by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation, partnered with various California Educational institutions that is citing the concepts of Critical Race theory, citing CRT Scholars, and using CRT Definitions. Perhaps I might be more leniant (okay, let's be honest, because I know the source of the poison of CRT, I wouldn't...) if it was a subject where the most mild interpretation of CRT could be relevant - e.g. history or sociology or any subject where the concept of Race has valid implications. Maths, however, has no such implications.

As I said in that post - I can point to the various clues, just on the front page of the website that to anyone who is familiar with what CRT is, would discern that it's infected with it's poison - but better than that - they outright say that they are using Critical Race Theory, referring to it by name - but somehow that level of proof and confirmation is not enough for you?

Having your head in the sand does not become you Pritch. I know you are more reasonable than that.

And best of all - it doesn't matter what I think CRT is (although I do know what it is - it's the Application of the Marxism to the concept of Race, using Gramsci's theory of Cultural Hegemony - please don't make me cite Kimberle Crenshaw... again...) - all that matters is that what is being claimed - that CRT concepts are being taught to Children (and pre-teens counts as Children) in schools is true.

Whether you agree that this is a bad thing or whether you still oppose the Republicans in doing this is another matter - but objectively - I've been able to show that to a target audience for whom this is wildly inappropriate, for a subject in which Race has no bearing, sponsored by large financial interested, supported by multiple educational institutions that the concepts of CRT are being taught to Children in schools.

Is it time to admit that perhaps you are being lied to?

[husaberg]

Well, I can see that you put some effort into that, but of course it was misdirected. CRT is not taught in schools. What you think is CRT is a Republican party construct designed to keep their base agitated. And it's working. See also: Sharia Law, caravans. voter fraud, immigration, trans people & bathrooms, etc etc etc. *

As for race in text books, it's a case of follow the money. Glen Younkin, the recently elected Republican Governor of Virginia, owns or has a signifificant financial interest in the publisher of the text books not affected by De Santis' ban. What a coincidence.

Anyhoo DeSantis has moved on. He has declared war on Mickey Mouse because Mickey didn't support his "Don't say gay" homophobic legislation. Another transprent ploy to keep the base on the boil.


* Oh, and there was the pisstake about kids in school who identified as cats being provided with litter trays. One inbred southern politician even brought this up in a speech, he thought it was a real thing.

Ya wasting ya time with TLDR, he claims to know more about US law than the an US supreme court judge. More about security than the FBI and more about NZ law than a NZ judge. He has also claimed that a law change that 99% of MP agreed on was "somehow undemocratic".
The Dude Dunning and Krugwer were describing was TLDR
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9HBNKoVgAISmYq.jpghttps://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/002/181/859/d17



https://www.kiwibiker.co.nz/forums/showthread.php/185625-Tommy-Robinson?p=1131118602&highlight=supreme+court#post1131118602
https://www.kiwibiker.co.nz/forums/showthread.php/42615-The-firearm-thread/page641?p=1131177156#post1131177156



All I've said is that the process by which the law was changed was clearly undemocratic, and as such I don't consider it to have any validity.
.


Bonus the posts when he claims to know more about mental health than the NZ mental health foundation
https://www.kiwibiker.co.nz/forums/showthread.php/140713-Stupid-World?p=1131125016#post1131125016
https://www.kiwibiker.co.nz/forums/showthread.php/140713-Stupid-World?p=1131125308#post1131125308
https://www.kiwibiker.co.nz/forums/showthread.php/140713-Stupid-World?p=1131125154#post1131125154
https://www.kiwibiker.co.nz/forums/showthread.php/140713-Stupid-World?p=1131125523#post1131125523


Bonus points for the times he outright passed on untruths and never once admitted he was completely wrong.

Point of Order - 'Vetting' where he used Referees that only knew him from a Web Forum, and the Trans-Tasman checks are still not a thing...


Do you think an Internet Forum persona is an Acceptable Character Reference?
I

The laws were mostly fine, the application of the Laws were not.
Again, a Character reference from an Internet Forum. I'd not vouch for ANYONE on this forum that I had not (in the very least) met face-to-face.


Why did the Massacre happen?
Because the Cops let someone have a licence who could not provide valid References.
No Licence = No Massacre.
.


2: Objectively, the Police did not follow the rules when vetting the Terrorist, Online forums is not sufficient for a Character reference.


Point of Order - 'Vetting' where he used Referees that only knew him from a Web Forum, and the Trans-Tasman checks are still not a thing...

[Laava]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/northland/300571862/one-dead-after-serious-crash-involving-motorcycle-in-northland

As I could not find the thread with cunts riding trail bikes in the city with no helmets etc...apparently this dead rider was on a non road legal trail bike with no helmet. Lesson learned? Nah, no chance!

[TheDemonLord]

Ya wasting ya time with TLDR, he claims to know more about US law than the an US supreme court judge. More about security than the FBI and more about NZ law than a NZ judge. He has also claimed that a law change that 99% of MP agreed on was "somehow undemocratic".
The Dude Dunning and Krugwer were describing was TLDR


You know that if you post the same wrong things multiple times, they don't magically become true...

They do, however, give off the impression of being repeated Mantras designed to convince yourself of a reality that isn't true, what was the quote again? Ah yes:


“Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth”

[TheDemonLord]

As for race in text books, it's a case of follow the money. Glen Younkin, the recently elected Republican Governor of Virginia, owns or has a signifificant financial interest in the publisher of the text books not affected by De Santis' ban. What a coincidence.

Could be - however it could also be that a Conservative owner of a company that publishes Text books might not allow radical left-wing concepts into their material.

Just a thought....


Anyhoo DeSantis has moved on. He has declared war on Mickey Mouse because Mickey didn't support his "Don't say gay" homophobic legislation. Another transprent ploy to keep the base on the boil.

So first question on the Anti-Groomer bill:

Can you find anywhere in the Bill that says Homosexuality?

I'll spare you the time - you can't because it doesn't mention it. It prohibits instruction (that is a pre-determined lesson) from teaching about Sexual Relationships (which, might I add includes heterosexual relationships) from Children for whom it's not appropriate.

Here's a few example of Teachers openly talking about indoctrinating children (including one who outlines how they teach it in Kindergarten) into Gender Ideology.

For example: https://youtu.be/bn8zBaa3f1c?t=132
or https://youtu.be/oHzyJ4SoOLQ?t=534
or https://youtu.be/AlvzJWqEg1U?t=160

However, I want to save this one for last, since it cuts right to the very heart of what the Bill was about:


https://youtu.be/rxLJsSE1MRI?t=255

"I don't care what the Parents want, I'm going to do it anyway", As a Parent - No. Hard No. And funnily enough, this hill turns out to be one an awful lot of parents are willing to die on.

There's another video that unfortunately got taken down where a School teacher in a Classroom talked about how they wanted to teach their children about BDSM but they had to tell them not to talk to their parents about it.

I'll be brutally honest - any Adult that:

1: Wants to talk to a child about anything to do with Sex and
2: Tells them not to tell their parents

That's a Pedophile.

[sugilite]

Can you find anywhere in the Bill that says Homosexuality?

I'll spare you the time - you can't because it doesn't mention it. It prohibits instruction (that is a pre-determined lesson) from teaching about Sexual Relationships (which, might I add includes heterosexual relationships) from Children for whom it's not appropriate.


I agree with the bill that prohibits discussion about gender identity for grade 3 and lower children. My problem is the very deliberate vagueness of the 2nd half of the sentence "or in a manner that is not age appropriate or developmentally appropriate for students in accordance with state standards.". That needs to be defined so it is not a de facto blanket ban for all age groups. It is important for trans people to be acknowledged, and what age that is should be discussed and implemented before the bill becomes law.

the whole sentence below.
Lines 97-101: Classroom instruction by school personnel or third parties on sexual orientation or gender identity may not occur in kindergarten through grade 3 or in a manner that is not age appropriate or developmentally appropriate for students in accordance with state standards.

[TheDemonLord]

I agree with the bill that prohibits discussion about gender identity for grade 3 and lower children. My problem is the very deliberate vagueness of the 2nd half of the sentence "or in a manner that is not age appropriate or developmentally appropriate for students in accordance with state standards.". That needs to be defined so it is not a de facto blanket ban for all age groups. It is important for trans people to be acknowledged, and what age that is should be discussed and implemented before the bill becomes law.

the whole sentence below.
Lines 97-101: Classroom instruction by school personnel or third parties on sexual orientation or gender identity may not occur in kindergarten through grade 3 or in a manner that is not age appropriate or developmentally appropriate for students in accordance with state standards.

I consider the best way is to use the Religious education as the Yard Stick.

As Kindergarten/Lower primary School - Nothing.
When they are a bit older, 9/10/11 - "There are different people, who have different Beliefs"
When they are in their teens, that's when this can be expanded on a little bit "There are these groups of people, here is what they do, here is what defines them etc. etc."

One other thing in the Bill which I think was very wise to include and that those opposed to it fail to acknowledge - was that it doesn't prohibit the Teacher from answering a question. So for example in a biology class - Little Mary could raise her hand and ask the teacher:

"I've heard that Sex and Gender aren't the same" - and the Teacher can answer that question. If a child approaches a Teacher after class and says "I'm not sure that's me" - they can have that discussion.

That said, knowing the roots of Gender Ideology, I'm more and more siding with the camp of Biological Sex, 23rd Chromosome, Biological Essentialism. I'm happy to treat a Trans person as the opposite Sex, to afford them certain attributes of that sex if I think they are genuine - but there are certain issues and realms where the underlying biological reality overrules.

[sugilite]

As Kindergarten/Lower primary School - Nothing.
When they are a bit older, 9/10/11 - "There are different people, who have different Beliefs"
When they are in their teens, that's when this can be expanded on a little bit "There are these groups of people, here is what they do, here is what defines them etc. etc."
Yep, that seems about right.


That said, knowing the roots of Gender Ideology, I'm more and more siding with the camp of Biological Sex, 23rd Chromosome, Biological Essentialism. I'm happy to treat a Trans person as the opposite Sex, to afford them certain attributes of that sex if I think they are genuine - but there are certain issues and realms where the underlying biological reality overrules.
And so does this. They should not be allowed to compete in sports such as that swimmer in the states. I seriously believe, the biological girls should all boycott on mass any further events until the ruling sports bodies come to their senses. The current situation is not fair at all.

[TheDemonLord]

Yep, that seems about right.


And so does this. They should not be allowed to compete in sports such as that swimmer in the states. I seriously believe, the biological girls should all boycott on mass any further events until the ruling sports bodies come to their senses. The current situation is not fair at all.

Congratulations - as far as the Left-wing is concerned, you're now pretty much a Trump-voting *phobe :laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

Is it fair? No.

But I'd be lying if I said there wasn't a certain amount of 'I told you so' happening. Either we will find our collective backbone and push back on this nonsense, or we let it run to it's inevitable (and likely bloody) conclusion and reform society anew from the Ashes.

And just quietly - I'm still on the fence as to which option I prefer.

[Berries]

Biological Sex, 23rd Chromosome, Biological Essentialism.
All three of these bands are playing at Sammys in Dunedin on Friday night.

Tickets $10 each.

[sugilite]

Congratulations - as far as the Left-wing is concerned, you're now pretty much a Trump-voting *phobe :laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:
Hmmmm, thin ice here for you bro, any repub that dares to say anything anti trump, boom primaried. Yet the dems, as much as they are the experts at circular firing squads, do seem to put up with dissenters (as in Manchin, and other dumb bitch I cannot recall name of) in their ranks a lot better than repubs. Well I should say the party of trump does, because, lets face it, the repub party theatrically died a long protracted death starting hmmmm, about 2016. They are the trump party now. (The majority of whom piss all over conservatism)
Though if Trump does decide to run (the later he announces the better. let desantis get his hopes up) then the Trump/Desantis scrap will be a glorious bloodbath worth watching :yes:
The dems will have to work double time to bring the attention back to their disasters (but I have faith they will find some extra feet to shoot).




But I'd be lying if I said there wasn't a certain amount of 'I told you so' happening.

Is this an ad hoc type I told you so, or one directly aimed at me, because I don't remember us discussing this subject before?

These days republicans are calling anything that moves pedophilia, I notice you are gobbling this republican party talking point up like choc coated tic tacs of late....
I like this response to a poorly targeted repub pedo smear job, almost looks like McMorrow might be a ok pollie.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kf3SR_INw70&t=289s

[TheDemonLord]

Hmmmm, thin ice here for you bro, any repub that dares to say anything anti trump, boom primaried. Yet the dems, as much as they are the experts at circular firing squads, do seem to put up with dissenters (as in Manchin, and other dumb bitch I cannot recall name of) in their ranks a lot better than repubs. Well I should say the party of trump does, because, lets face it, the repub party theatrically died a long protracted death starting hmmmm, about 2016. They are the trump party now. (The majority of whom piss all over conservatism)
Though if Trump does decide to run (the later he announces the better. let desantis get his hopes up) then the Trump/Desantis scrap will be a glorious bloodbath worth watching :yes:
The dems will have to work double time to bring the attention back to their disasters (but I have faith they will find some extra feet to shoot).

I'm pulling your leg... mostly, the joke being that having the rational approach to Sex/Gender is now enough to brand one as 'Far right'.

As for DeSantis - If Trump runs, I don't think he will - I'd like Trump to run again (obviously...)

In regards to dissent in the ranks, I think you are safe- lots of conservative commentators and people connected to, but outside the Party have been critical of Trump.



Is this an ad hoc type I told you so, or one directly aimed at me, because I don't remember us discussing this subject before?

Discussed previously, but not here - that 'I told you so' isn't aimed at anyone in particular - more specifically, when the burgeoning SJW movement was growing back before Trump, many people pointed out that in the end they would end up destroying themselves.

Seeing all the vocal proponents who helped spawn this movement get canceled due to it has been hilarious.



These days republicans are calling anything that moves pedophilia, I notice you are gobbling this republican party talking point up like choc coated tic tacs of late...

This debate has gone on long before the Republicans actually started to pay attention.

There are 2 particular avenues of concern:

1: indoctrination Children into Gender ideology (which has it's roots in the Gramsci/Frankfurt School/Marx schools of philosophy)

2: the attempt by some to use the banner of Sexual expression to try and normalize pedophilia.

Basically it's using the same arguments that the Gay Rights movement used - 'I was born this way' and 'love is love' to try and justify their 'sexual preference' and 'identity'.

(Quick note - not saying that Gay people are pedophiles, I'm saying that some people are using the same argumentation)

[R650R]

Y’all might not of noticed... but I thought our resident twitterati gospel preachers would have noticed... but Electric Jesus aka Elon Musk just bought twitter outright for $61 billion dollars.
There seems to be a lot of hysteria among the wokerati about a successful African American buying a free speech flatform and planning on allowing free speech.


https://youtu.be/rFNCsSBnYVg

[sugilite]

African American, chortle, chortle, good effort mate :laugh:

[TheDemonLord]

Elon is an absolute Mad Lad.

[mashman]

'Everything is halted': Shanghai shutdowns are worsening shortages (https://us.yahoo.com/news/everything-halted-shanghai-shutdowns-worsening-103816660.html)... just lol.

[sugilite]

'Everything is halted': Shanghai shutdowns are worsening shortages (https://us.yahoo.com/news/everything-halted-shanghai-shutdowns-worsening-103816660.html)... just lol.

And as of today, they are starting to instigate shutdown processes in Beijing too.

[mashman]

And as of today, they are starting to instigate shutdown processes in Beijing too.

Aye... been happening for a few months in various places. Glad I never ordered an air fryer.

[Viking01]

In these serious days, it's good to find a bit of humour now and then.

I've recently been enjoying a NetFlix series on the Monty Python group, and it's been interesting seeing some background on the various members of the group (e.g. Palin, Cleese, etc).

It's sad that some of the old UK favourites have sadly now passed (e.g. the Two Ronnies):

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/mar/31/ronnie-corbett-best-clips-two-ronnies-fork-handles-extras

But as I was trolling, sorry scanning through the Guardian this morning, I came across a mention of some of the newer generation of British comedians e.g.

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2022/apr/29/james-acaster-josh-widdicombe-hypothetical

And in true British form, it seems maybe some of the UK politicians are wanting to join in the act. Providing some dark humour, even if not intended as such.

Just from a casual scan of the Guardian in recent days:

1. Boris Johnson(of recent covid party fame) - is being asked to discipline one of his own MP's. I'm not quite sure which aspect of this whole situation is the most entertaining.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/28/johnson-must-act-now-on-mp-accused-of-watching-porn-in-commons-starmer
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/suella-braverman-boris-johnson-pornography-nadine-dorries-commons-b2067732.html

2. Liz Truss (UK Foreign Secretary) - who previously struggled to distinguish between the Black and the Baltic seas - still seems in great need of a geography textbook. A world map at the very least (they can't be that expensive).

This time, she seems to think the North Atlantic is in close proximity to the South China Sea, and that the Chinese are in need of some (navigational ?) guidance:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/29/china-says-nato-is-messing-up-europe-and-warns-over-role-in-asia-pacific?

3. Jacob Rees-Mogg has decided that the UK will delay Brexit-related border checks (for goods entering the UK from the EU) yet again, but that the UK public should be happy:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/29/jacob-rees-mogg-brexit-disaster-leaving-eu-boris-johnson

At least the following (related) article found a means to blame the Russians for it (via the EU imposed sanctions, and all the associated economic blow-back slowly being incurred):

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-boris-johnson-business-london-global-trade-e2adf68b93a22f69f87bab745d874b9c

This follows Michael Gove's earlier announcement about some of the other "benefits" of the UK having exited the EU:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-regions-gove-levelling-up-b2057549.html

I wasn't sure (in the above link) whether it was a smile on Gove's face, or simply a look of resignation. It's hard to tell. [ No, sorry, my mistake, it must be a smile. The Conservatives don't do resignations, as Boris has already demonstrated. ]

[Edit 01.05.2022]

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/neil-parish-tractor-porn-celebrity-reactions-b2069106.html

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-import-checks-rees-mogg-b2067421.html

[george formby]

When I'm in need of brevity I watch some 8 out of 10 cats does Countdown, Shooting Stars with Vic Reeves and Bob Mortimer or Would I lie to you. Amongst others.

Still trying to find whole episodes of Rising Damp...

[pete376403]

When I'm in need of brevity I watch some 8 out of 10 cats does Countdown, Shooting Stars with Vic Reeves and Bob Mortimer or Would I lie to you. Amongst others.

Still trying to find whole episodes of Rising Damp...

Rising damp - the complete tv series plus the movie - on IP Torrents. 6.06 Gb

[george formby]

Rising damp - the complete tv series plus the movie - on IP Torrents. 6.06 Gb

I shall investigate, thank you.

I reckon Leonard Rossiter was one of the most talented people on TV at the time but he never seemed to get the acknowledgement.

[husaberg]

I shall investigate, thank you.

I reckon Leonard Rossiter was one of the most talented people on TV at the time but he never seemed to get the acknowledgement.

The rise and fall of Reginald Perin rates as one of my favourite ever shows

[pete376403]

I shall investigate, thank you.

I reckon Leonard Rossiter was one of the most talented people on TV at the time but he never seemed to get the acknowledgement.
IPtorrents is by invite only, if inaccessible to you, PM me

[R650R]

https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2022/04/sinking-cities-sea-level-rise/

The “scientists” have finally discovered land tides already mentioned by Ken ring and also mainstream news long time ago.....
Who would have thought it aye.... we’ll most intelligent people already realised our continents are floating on layers of lava and molten rock....

What’s interesting is they are claiming their satellite radar taking measurements of 0.4mm land movement. I’d live to see the calibration operation of that, you know where’s you use a second device ten times more accurate

[jim.cox]

The rise and fall of Reginald Perin rates as one of my favourite ever shows

Mine too. I didn't get to were I am today by ignoring good comedy

And when I see the retailer 'Nood' I always think 'Grot'

[husaberg]

Mine too. I didn't get to were I am today by ignoring good comedy

And when I see the retailer 'Nood' I always think 'Grot'
i had forgot about the Hipo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5pRIt9_5JU

[george formby]

You bastards!

Do you have any idea how long it took me to stop saying "I didn't get where I am today"....?

Years, bloody years, that's how long!

:pinch:

[TheDemonLord]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eQomTzxE9k

[R650R]

The new fad that’s keeping Darwinism alive....

On the plus side there will be a few less hipster upcycler types left standing. Unfortunately their artworks won’t be more valuable after death due to a bit of contamination I would say....


https://youtu.be/FBeSKL9zVro

[husaberg]

You bastards!

Do you have any idea how long it took me to stop saying "I didn't get where I am today"....?

Years, bloody years, that's how long!

:pinch:
great ......

[jim.cox]

super .....

[mashman]

Russia beats final deadline to avoid debt default (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61313296)... capitalism... ahhhhh. Even after self-sanctioning some of its resources, given that few wanted to stop consuming those resources outwith the talking heads, the Rouble is higher than it has been for a while. The Chinese must be funding the Russians :shifty:

[pete376403]

Russia beats final deadline to avoid debt default (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61313296)... capitalism... ahhhhh. Even after self-sanctioning some of its resources, given that few wanted to stop consuming those resources outwith the talking heads, the Rouble is higher than it has been for a while. The Chinese must be funding the Russians :shifty:

Paying back 650 mill is only a tiny portion of the 40 billion owed, all they have done is put off the reckoning a while. A bit like only paying the monthly minimum on the credit card, the rest doesn't just go away.

[george formby]

great ......


super .....

Oooooh, you are awful!

[jim.cox]

Oooooh, you are awful!

And all in the best possible taste ...

[mashman]

Paying back 650 mill is only a tiny portion of the 40 billion owed, all they have done is put off the reckoning a while. A bit like only paying the monthly minimum on the credit card, the rest doesn't just go away.

Yup, capitalism. The U.S. must be due for their usual bi-'oh we might not be able to pay the debt, quick, raise the ceiling' thing.

[Viking01]

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2022/may/08/dennis-waterman-a-streetwise-natural-in-three-great-british-tv-series

[pritch]

The US is set to full crazy. Just watched a clip featuring General Flynn. The clip explained how the COVID vaccine contains concealed pathogens which will be released into the bloodstream of victims by a given series of signals from the 5G towers.

Perhaps some of these idiots should indulge the latest health care fad: testicle tanning?

[R650R]

You couldn’t make up stuff this stupid. Because govt is encouraging skilled successful (and sometimes wealthy) people to immigrate to NZ it’s a racist policy because most of those people will come from successful white western nations.....

Green Party really showing why they should not be let near govt at all.... hang on aren’t they partners with Jacinda, guess the single source of truth over ruled the inclusive partnership lol
They don’t want a two tiered society, except when it’s medical apartheid which benefits them...


https://youtu.be/fOXEzDnAjPs

[husaberg]

You couldn’t make up stuff this stupid.

Really you post stuff worse than that three times a day on this forum alone....

[mashman]

Jeff Bezos said the new 'disinformation board' should review Biden's tweet that tied high inflation to low corporate taxes, calling it 'misdirection' (https://www.yahoo.com/news/jeff-bezos-said-disinformation-board-043500543.html)... lol, capitalists.

[Viking01]

"A plan so cunning that you could pin a tail on it, and call it a weasel."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/27/boris-johnson-changes-ministerial-code-to-remove-need-to-resign-over-breaches

Well, maybe so, but apparently it's been reported that the Council of Weasels (CoW, as in "holy cow") have taken offence at the above.

Not only because of implied association of Boris with members of their brotherhood (which they have rightfully taken exception to), but also possible intention to use their trademark methods without attribution (which simply adds insult to injury).

I suspect that we have not heard the last of this story.

[Edit 30.05.2022]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/29/boris-johnson-has-vomited-over-standards-in-public-life

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2022/jun/01/martin-rowson-on-boris-johnson-and-the-ministerial-code-cartoon

[pritch]

That latest school shooting in the USA is starting to look like a real cock up on the part of law enforcement. I mean the one in Uvalde, Texas, in case there has been yet another since. Multiple agencies present and they all stood around for an hour or more doing nothing except stopping parents entering into the school to get their kids.

Apparently since Columbine it has been standard practice for the police to go in immediately, not to set up a perimeter to keep people out. The Uvalde PD have a SWAT team, but if they were there they did nothing. Eventually it was the Border Patrol team that went in. The Border Patrol! WTF?

So not only did the multiple law enforcement agancies present stand around for an hour and do fuck all, they then lied about it. There may be some fall out but probably not, it's just another day in the US of A.

[TheDemonLord]

That latest school shooting in the USA is starting to look like a real cock up on the part of law enforcement. I mean the one in Uvalde, Texas, in case there has been yet another since. Multiple agencies present and they all stood around for an hour or more doing nothing except stopping parents entering into the school to get their kids.

Apparently since Columbine it has been standard practice for the police to go in immediately, not to set up a perimeter to keep people out. The Uvalde PD have a SWAT team, but if they were there they did nothing. Eventually it was the Border Patrol team that went in. The Border Patrol! WTF?

So not only did the multiple law enforcement agancies present stand around for an hour and do fuck all, they then lied about it. There may be some fall out but probably not, it's just another day in the US of A.

A Lot of people have raised a lot of questions about that shooting.

And having LEOs stand around for an hour is certainly one that needs a damn good answer.


This is the type of stuff that fuels those of a conspiratorial persuasion.

[sugilite]

A Lot of people have raised a lot of questions about that shooting.

And having LEOs stand around for an hour is certainly one that needs a damn good answer.


This is the type of stuff that fuels those of a conspiratorial persuasion.

Yeah, they needed a hero to stand up and go in there like this guy below claims he would do.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Hn10ZOD8yE

[TheDemonLord]

Yeah, they needed a hero to stand up and go in there like this guy below claims he would do.

I mean, I expected something like that - but as I said - there are some very odd set of circumstances that surround this shooting.

[R650R]

Apparently since 2014ish or sandy hook whatever all USA schools have been prison style security buzz in access only. Could you imagine the lawsuits if even a custody dispute type parent was able to just walk straight in let alone a shooter.
Texas is THE shoot first ask questions later state, it makes no sense outside a botched false flag event....
Make a note this is what it looks like when real parents are on scene...
A lot of sites are reporting that originally a single shooter was shot dead in carpark by random concealed carry citizen. I remember seeing that in fluff news but didn’t click it so no bookmark.
And yet again we are to believe a scrawny kid wearing heavy body amour carrying TWO assault rifles (just think for a minute the mechanics of getting through doorways etc) and carrying “ more ammunition than us soldiers go into battle with”.... got anywhere near front door of school without being challenged or taken out????

[sugilite]

The sad fact of the matter is that mass school shootings are now as American as apple pie - arguably more so.
The culture of the gun is now intermixing with the latest generation of social media challengers. These young psychopaths are willing to die to go down in notoriety. Their last moments in life is viewing the world through the eyes of a single shooter video game character. This phenom is not going away, it is more likely going to accelerate.
The countries leadership is long devoid of humanity, and crippled by corruption.
The act of doing nothing for so long has taken the issue past critical mass. It is now infused in their culture, there is no fix.

Team guns latest touted solution is to make their schools look indistinguishable from a prison.

America: Land of the free - but slave to the gun.

[pritch]

The sad fact of the matter is that mass school shootings are now as American as apple pie - arguably more so.
The culture of the gun is now intermixing with the latest generation of social media challengers. These young psychopaths are willing to die to go down in notoriety. Their last moments in life is viewing the world through the eyes of a single shooter video game character. This phenom is not going away, it is more likely going to accelerate.
The countries leadership is long devoid of humanity, and crippled by corruption.
The act of doing nothing for so long has taken the issue past critical mass. It is now infused in their culture, there is no fix.

Team guns latest touted solution is to make their schools look indistinguishable from a prison.

America: Land of the free - but slave to the gun.



And the situation might be about to get worse. The army is moving to a 6.8mm round, a more powerful cartridge than the 5.56 currently in use. Semi automatic military style rifles in 6.8mm are already available in the US.

People are fond of saying the 5.56 cartridge is designed ot kill. Of course all .22 centre fire cartridges were designed to kill. To kill rabbits - at a distance. Unopposed it works on people in a supermarket or a school though.

The 6.8 could be a suitable deer cartridge, it will be effective at longer ranges, and is designed to penetrate the body armour currently in use.

Only a few in the US are much interested in this development it seems, but the body count could be about to rise.

But Hey! Guns aren't the problem, doors are. Schools have too many doors.

[TheDemonLord]

And the situation might be about to get worse. The army is moving to a 6.8mm round, a more powerful cartridge than the 5.56 currently in use. Semi automatic military style rifles in 6.8mm are already available in the US.

People are fond of saying the 5.56 cartridge is designed ot kill. Of course all .22 centre fire cartridges were designed to kill. To kill rabbits - at a distance. Unopposed it works on people in a supermarket or a school though.

The 6.8 could be a suitable deer cartridge, it will be effective at longer ranges, and is designed to penetrate the body armour currently in use.

Only a few in the US are much interested in this development it seems, but the body count could be about to rise.

But Hey! Guns aren't the problem, doors are. Schools have too many doors.

I'm still skeptical TBH - There was the ACR, the XM-8 Program and a number of other things before the Army said 'Nah, we like our M4s'. Although this does look like it's going ahead.

I don't think that the proper 6.8 ammo is commercially available yet - that is the two-part case with the ridiculous pressures, I believe there is commercially available standard 6.8 mm ammo.

Also, I'm pretty sure that the .223 and subsequent 5.56 was always designed as a Military cartridge.

My prediction is that if the 6.8 rifle becomes the defacto standard, that we won't see a significant change - one things I've seen multiple reviewers say is that for a trained shooter (these are mainly Veterens) that it's great, but the extra weight and recoil is something that an untrained shooter would struggle with. Case in point - the .223 trials of the AR-15 vs the M14 where those with the AR had a higher hit percentage than those with the M14.

[pritch]

There is news, unconfirmed as yet, that on the advice of counsel, the entire Uvalde Police force is pleading the fifth and will not cooperate with the investigation into their response to the school shooting.

If true that's even more astounding than their botched response.

[pritch]

Confirmation?

[TheDemonLord]

Confirmation?

I mean - if there was any action that is going to pour fuel on the conspiracy fire - it would be this.

[Viking01]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/pm-jacinda-ardern-meets-us-president-joe-biden-at-the-white-house/XLG6QX5SQEDC6NHG7RBKXHZD54/

I must be getting old and cynical, but I wonder what we have been committed to now. <_<

[Edit]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Biden-s-Asia-policy/Biden-New-Zealand-PM-focus-on-Pacific-islands-China-in-meeting

https://www.rt.com/news/556439-china-us-new-zealand/

[R650R]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/pm-jacinda-ardern-meets-us-president-joe-biden-at-the-white-house/XLG6QX5SQEDC6NHG7RBKXHZD54/

I must be getting old and cynical, but I wonder what we have been committed to now. <_<

[Edit]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Biden-s-Asia-policy/Biden-New-Zealand-PM-focus-on-Pacific-islands-China-in-meeting

Going by what herxtalking points are here s what’s likely. We will have at some time another mass shooting either real or staged (or perhaps they’ll just let gang problem snowball as excuse).
This will lead to another gun grab sorry “ buyback” scheme for ALL guns. Just like we declared a climate emergency she will declare guns a threat to nz children etc....
The shooter will be a basement t dwelling comic con character as per her recent article that will be inspired by false disinformation on the intenet and will have posted nasty comments about Jacinda.
So they will turn off the internet and setup a new nationwide intranet which will only serve up certified real news and be run by new govt agency called ministry of truth.
The worlds wide web will now be called Single Open Source truth so instead of www you will type SOS in browser.
I’ve noticed since she did her rant other week lots of fake news Jacinda stuff has been appearing, not in any pages I follow but coming up like ads do. This is very suspicious as judging by comments everyone is suddenly seeing these and Fakebook does not let a large audience see stuff for free. Someone is pushing this with big $$$ backing....

[R650R]

I mean - if there was any action that is going to pour fuel on the conspiracy fire - it would be this.

Not to mention the chief of police going “awol”.... perhaps he was about to blow the whistle????

Probably taking swimming lessons in s Florida swamp with his hands tied behind his back.....

I forgot to mention or remind people about how often us cops practise active shooter scenarios in schools prob more often than we do for fire drills. There’s tons of articles about parents of petrified students as it’s not uncommon for themselves not to prewarn the kids so it’s as real as possible.

And why the theatre of the kids escaping out the window??? Why did they not just bring them out through door cops cane in???

[pritch]

Not to mention the chief of police going “awol”.... perhaps he was about to blow the whistle????

Apparently the Police chief was appointed to the City Council in the dead of night. The Mayor doesn't impress much from what we've seen. Another inbred yokel KKK member?
We know for sure he doesn't much like Beto O'Rourke.




I forgot to mention or remind people about how often us cops practise active shooter scenarios in schools prob more often than we do for fire drills.


I'm not sure the cops are much involved in that training at all. Shooter drills are a school responsibility. Bullet proof backpacks are a parental responsibility. The Republican party accept no responsibility.

[husaberg]

Bullet proof backpacks are a parental responsibility. The Republican party accept no responsibility.

Guns don't kill people bullets do...........:whistle:
maybe they should ban the bullets.
I don't recall anything in the constitution about the bullets......
Especially as they were not invented until half a century later

All the Constitution says is that they have the right to "bear arms."
And that "right to bear arms" is actually supposed to support the existence of a "well-regulated militia," an important qualifying clause in the Second Amendment that those in favor of free access to assault weapons usually ignore.
But even leaving aside the "well-regulated militia" clause, the Constitution doesn't specify what "arms" their allowed to bear.
They are not even all allowed to own fully automatic machine guns.*
So if was decided to establish that US citizens are not individually allowed to bear semi-automatic assault rifles and pistols while still being allowed to own single-shot hunting guns, this would be perfectly in keeping with how they have interpreted our Second Amendment rights under the Constitution.

there are already limitsin federal law.
Armor-Piercing Ammunition
Federal law prohibits the manufacture, importation, sale, or delivery of armor-piercing ammunition, with very limited exceptions. Licensed dealers are prohibited from “willfully” transferring armor-piercing ammunition.

8 U.S.C. §§ 921(a)(17), 922(a)(7), (8); 27 C.F.R. § 478.37. Specific exceptions exist for armor-piercing ammunition that is manufactured for certain federal and state government divisions, exportation, or testing. 18 U.S.C. §§ 921(a)(17)(C), 922(a)(7), 922(a)(8); 27 C.F.R. § 478.37. The Director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) may also exempt certain armor-piercing ammunition primarily intended for sporting or industrial purposes. 27 C.F.R. § 478.148.


DragonÂ’s Breath & Bolo Shell Ammunition: Three states, Florida, Illinois, and Iowa, prohibit the manufacture, transfer, purchase, and/or possession of dragonÂ’s breath ammunition. DragonÂ’s breath ammunition is a type of shotgun shell that contains exothermic pyrophoric mesh metal as the projectile and that is designed for the sole purpose of throwing or spewing a flame or fireball to simulate a flamethrower

Exploding Ammunition: Eight states (California,Florida, Hawaii,Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, New York, and Tennessee) prohibit the manufacture, transfer, purchase, and/or possession of bullets or projectiles that are designed to explode, segment or detonate upon impact with a target.
Flechette Ammunition: Three states (California, Florida,and Illinois ) prohibit the manufacture, transfer, purchase, and/or possession of flechette ammunition, which are shells that expel two or more pieces of solid metal wire, or two or more solid dart-type projectiles.

[TheDemonLord]

Guns don't kill people bullets do...........:whistle:
maybe they should ban the bullets.
I don't recall anything in the constitution about the bullets......

Not surprising that you are wrong again on this - because the definition they would have used is:

"a means of offense or defense"

Means would include Bullets.

[R650R]

I'm not sure the cops are much involved in that training at all. Shooter drills are a school responsibility. Bullet proof backpacks are a parental responsibility. The Republican party accept no responsibility.

Let me share some facts....


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47711020.amp

Been happening since 1999.... 32 states require some type of drill by law to be conducted

[pete376403]

Let me share some facts....


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47711020.amp

Been happening since 1999.... 32 states require some type of drill by law to be conducted

Chair blockade constructed by kids to keep shooter out until cops can be bothered turning up. So no need to do anything more constructive about the guns, this will be all thats necessary

[TheDemonLord]

So much wrong



All the Constitution says is that they have the right to "bear arms."
And that "right to bear arms" is actually supposed to support the existence of a "well-regulated militia," an important qualifying clause in the Second Amendment that those in favor of free access to assault weapons usually ignore.

They don't actually, because Militia is Singular, referring to an Able Bodied Adult and Well Regulated means ready to do their duty.


But even leaving aside the "well-regulated militia" clause, the Constitution doesn't specify what "arms" their allowed to bear.
They are not even all allowed to own fully automatic machine guns.*

Wrong, you absolutely can own Full Auto Machine Gun (https://www.brpguns.com/buying-a-transferable-machinegun/)


So if was decided to establish that US citizens are not individually allowed to bear semi-automatic assault rifles

Semi Automatic Assault Rifles is an OxyMoron, since an Assault Rifle by definition has to be capable of Select Fire, going from Semi-Auto to Full-Auto.


and pistols while still being allowed to own single-shot hunting guns, this would be perfectly in keeping with how they have interpreted our Second Amendment rights under the Constitution.

No, it wouldn't - as the Supreme Court has routinely ruled.

"Husaberg thinks he knows more about the US Constitution than the Supreme Court"


there are already limitsin federal law.
Armor-Piercing Ammunition
Federal law prohibits the manufacture, importation, sale, or delivery of armor-piercing ammunition, with very limited exceptions. Licensed dealers are prohibited from “willfully” transferring armor-piercing ammunition.

Again wrong, only applies to Handguns - AKA 'Cop Killer' ammunition.


DragonÂ’s Breath & Bolo Shell Ammunition: Three states, Florida, Illinois, and Iowa, prohibit the manufacture, transfer, purchase, and/or possession of dragonÂ’s breath ammunition. DragonÂ’s breath ammunition is a type of shotgun shell that contains exothermic pyrophoric mesh metal as the projectile and that is designed for the sole purpose of throwing or spewing a flame or fireball to simulate a flamethrower

Exploding Ammunition: Eight states (California,Florida, Hawaii,Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, New York, and Tennessee) prohibit the manufacture, transfer, purchase, and/or possession of bullets or projectiles that are designed to explode, segment or detonate upon impact with a target.
Flechette Ammunition: Three states (California, Florida,and Illinois ) prohibit the manufacture, transfer, purchase, and/or possession of flechette ammunition, which are shells that expel two or more pieces of solid metal wire, or two or more solid dart-type projectiles.

Not Federally restricted.

[R650R]

Some further details emerging about the hero border patrol agent who shot the shooter.

He was having a haircut at time, wearing flip flops, borrowed a shotgun off barber and did more than the police did....
What’s bet he’ll accidentmy be shot by Mexican drug cartel in next fre months....

[pritch]

Let me share some facts....

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47711020.amp

Been happening since 1999.... 32 states require some type of drill by law to be conducted



None of which has anything to do with what I wrote.

US public schools are famously short of cash. It will vary from state to state, but few schools will be looking for extra expenditure. In most cases it will be school staff that conduct the drills.

[R650R]

Our good friend sheriff Grady Judd.... can’t help but think he’s having quiet poke at his Texas colleagues..... he don’t mess about for sure....
Love the line when asked about whether a warning was issued “ when you already shot up the place and already threatened deputies the conversations is over”


https://youtu.be/PGTX4RJ0akM

[R650R]

This town must have a good bottle recycling program as this mental defective resorts to using plastic cups to throw burning liquid at cop cars.
Top marks for not managing to set himself on fire though....


https://youtu.be/QFF9pyq4eMU

[nerrrd]

They don't actually, because Militia is Singular, referring to an Able Bodied Adult and Well Regulated means ready to do their duty.


‘Militia’ might be singular, but it’s a collective noun, like ‘crowd’. You can have one crowd, or several crowds, but you can’t have a crowd of one. Similarly a militia would have to be a group of adults. Pretty sure this would have been the case even back in the 18th century, given the original Latin.

[TheDemonLord]

‘Militia’ might be singular, but it’s a collective noun, like ‘crowd’. You can have one crowd, or several crowds, but you can’t have a crowd of one. Similarly a militia would have to be a group of adults. Pretty sure this would have been the case even back in the 18th century, given the original Latin.

The problem is that we have the supporting documents from the 18th century that show what their intent is and we have the subsequent Supreme Court rulings.

However - to answer your linguistic question - imagine you and I are in an unsavory part of the world, and we see a single Man, armed to the teeth with some improvised badges on him, I turn to you and say 'He looks like he's a Militia' - Is that or is that not grammatically correct?

If it is, then that proves the correct usage.

[pete376403]

The problem is that we have the supporting documents from the 18th century that show what their intent is and we have the subsequent Supreme Court rulings.

However - to answer your linguistic question - imagine you and I are in an unsavory part of the world, and we see a single Man, armed to the teeth with some improvised badges on him, I turn to you and say 'He looks like he's a Militia' - Is that or is that not grammatically correct?

If it is, then that proves the correct usage.
probably no more correct than saying "he is a army, or he is a police or he is a mongrel mob"

[nerrrd]

The problem is that we have the supporting documents from the 18th century that show what their intent is and we have the subsequent Supreme Court rulings.

However - to answer your linguistic question - imagine you and I are in an unsavory part of the world, and we see a single Man, armed to the teeth with some improvised badges on him, I turn to you and say 'He looks like he's a Militia' - Is that or is that not grammatically correct?

If it is, then that proves the correct usage.

As above, the grammatically correct usage for you and me would be “He looks like he’s militia” where the collective noun is used adjectivally to describe the group belonged to.

[TheDemonLord]

I'm going to combine these two posts, since they are essentially the same argument.


probably no more correct than saying "he is a army, or he is a police or he is a mongrel mob"

Probably? Probably isn't very precise.


As above, the grammatically correct usage for you and me would be “He looks like he’s militia” where the collective noun is used adjectivally to describe the group belonged to.

I disagree - because I've heard individuals referred to singularly as 'Militia' numerous times throughout the years, by the BBC (back when they strictly adhered to English Grammar)

In the way you are using it, I think it would be more correct to say 'He's in the/a militia', where you are - as you say - describing group membership.

The individual can still correctly be described as a Militia.

I will grant that this may be from a different etymology - that is a contraction of the phrase 'Militiaman', however before you go 'Ha, it's a different word therefore you are wrong' - I can't find any reference to this being used in 18th Century American sources, they speak extensively about the Minutemen - but no reference to Militiaman/Militiamen.

All the sources that I can find use Militia to describe both the group and the individual interchangeably from the 18th century, whereby the Context gives which meaning is intended. Further reading one this - specifically the Majority opinion of Heller v Columbia, the interpretation for Militia is individualist as it is the right of 'people' to own and bear arms which shall not be infringed, not the Militia:


(1) The Second Amendment protects an individual right to possess a firearm unconnected with service in a militia, and to use that arm for traditionally lawful purposes, such as self-defense within the home. Pp. 2–53.

(a) The Amendment's prefatory clause announces a purpose, but does not limit or expand the scope of the second part, the operative clause. The operative clause's text and history demonstrate that it connotes an individual right to keep and bear arms. Pp. 2–22.

(b) The prefatory clause comports with the Court's interpretation of the operative clause. The "militia" comprised all males physically capable of acting in concert for the common defense. The Antifederalists feared that the Federal Government would disarm the people in order to disable this citizens' militia, enabling a politicized standing army or a select militia to rule. The response was to deny Congress power to abridge the ancient right of individuals to keep and bear arms, so that the ideal of a citizens' militia would be preserved. Pp. 22–28.

(c) The Court's interpretation is confirmed by analogous arms-bearing rights in state constitutions that preceded and immediately followed the Second Amendment. Pp. 28–30.

(d) The Second Amendment's drafting history, while of dubious interpretive worth, reveals three state Second Amendment proposals that unequivocally referred to an individual right to bear arms. Pp. 30–32.

(e) Interpretation of the Second Amendment by scholars, courts and legislators, from immediately after its ratification through the late 19th century also supports the Court's conclusion. Pp. 32–47.

(f) None of the Court's precedents forecloses the Court's interpretation. Neither United States v. Cruikshank, 92 U.S. 542 (1876), nor Presser v. Illinois, 116 U.S. 252 (1886), refutes the individual-rights interpretation. United States v. Miller, 307 U.S. 174 (1939), does not limit the right to keep and bear arms to militia purposes, but rather limits the type of weapon to which the right applies to those used by the militia, i.e., those in common use for lawful purposes.

Interestingly enough - Common Lawful purpose is one of the reasons why Sawn-Off shotguns aren't protected, but an AR is.

As I've said in other threads - the solution here is to try and ammend 2A, as opposed to trying to redefine the language.

[pete376403]

I guess it all depends where you learned to speak English...

[pete376403]

I'm going to combine these two posts, since they are essentially the same argument.



Probably? Probably isn't very precise.



I disagree - because I've heard individuals referred to singularly as 'Militia' numerous times throughout the years, by the BBC (back when they strictly adhered to English Grammar)

In the way you are using it, I think it would be more correct to say 'He's in the/a militia', where you are - as you say - describing group membership.

The individual can still correctly be described as a Militia.

I will grant that this may be from a different etymology - that is a contraction of the phrase 'Militiaman', however before you go 'Ha, it's a different word therefore you are wrong' - I can't find any reference to this being used in 18th Century American sources, they speak extensively about the Minutemen - but no reference to Militiaman/Militiamen.

All the sources that I can find use Militia to describe both the group and the individual interchangeably from the 18th century, whereby the Context gives which meaning is intended. Further reading one this - specifically the Majority opinion of Heller v Columbia, the interpretation for Militia is individualist as it is the right of 'people' to own and bear arms which shall not be infringed, not the Militia:.

Doesn't the original (not interpreted) refer to the "Right of THE people" ie collective. Not that I really care a whole lot, no matter how it is interpreted Americans will continue to kill each other with firearms - nine more plus a whole lot more wounded in Philadelphia, Chattanooga and Saginaw this morning.

[TheDemonLord]

Doesn't the original (not interpreted) refer to the "Right of THE people" ie collective.

Yes and No.

True it is referring to a Collective group, but since it's not qualified, it means everybody - therefore the right is interpreted at the Individual level.

[R650R]

TDL is correct, rest of you need to consult a real dictionary or one of many fantastic online ones which also produce same result....

Flashback to 1992 when some “ mainly peaceful protests” saw a mere 60 people killed.....

Just ask the Rooftop Koreans what they think about the 2A.... timely reminder how quickly law and order can breakdown and about how once it’s past a certain point nobody is coming in a timely manner to save you except yourself....


https://youtu.be/xWMj-mFUDGA

[TheDemonLord]

Flashback to 1992 when some “ mainly peaceful protests” saw a mere 60 people killed.....

Just ask the Rooftop Koreans what they think about the 2A.... timely reminder how quickly law and order can breakdown and about how once it’s past a certain point nobody is coming in a timely manner to save you except yourself...

Also a poignant reminder of why the argument of 'No one needs....' is wrong.

Same with Kyle.
Same with Ken and Karen Chadbro.
Same with Ukraine.

[husaberg]

TDL is correct, rest of you need to consult a real dictionary]

FAF
what do you know about being right.




Russia won’t invade anyway. There troops on border are like patched gang members sitting in a car in street while the prospects go do dirty work and collect debts.
There has been substantial internal skirmishes going on for a long time by rebel groups, many think Ukraine really is still pretty much Russia absent post Cold War changes. Funny how when yanks do same with cia interfering in other countries no one says anything...,,



Well well well, our journey into communist hell continues.

There has only been 1650 alleged cases (out of 700,000 tests!!!!) of the virus, but what has spread faster has been submission to communist control.
N


Masks are for destroying social interaction and communication with strangers. You know those moments in life when some shitbag is bashing his missus and enough of you make visual contact to know you’ve got each other back and intervene.
But with masks there will never be any Flight 93 “lets roll” moments of bravery, you’ll never know if your fellow citizen is a Karen or Stasi as you reluctantly board the blacked out train carriage...
A cop will never see your friendly smile, never know you like them and not let you off that minor stop sign indescretion...


The media are tripping over themselves trying to solve the mystery of why Africans aren't dying from covid as badly as the west.
Africans routinely take a cheap safe anti malaria drug invented in n 1960's called hydroxychloroquine....
Scooby Doo would solve that puzzle faster


Your odds of dying from Covid in NZ is about the same as winning Powerball....
People dream of winning powerball, actively visit known powerball superspreader hot zones twice a week in hope of winning...

Meanwhile about 6 times as many people die in drink drive car crashes.
We even have mass random surveillance testing for that too, typically about 1.5-2% are ‘ infected’ with the influence of alcohol.....
Would we tolerate say a 24hr lockdown every time you bought a beer at bar?
Or after your night at the bar you don’t leave through the front door, a govt agent escorts you to a ‘quarantine ‘ facility which you can’t leave for 24 hrs.
Just imagine that, we would ABSOLUTELY save 150 lives a year
The govt will NEVER do that so why all this crap with the virus where the potential victim has a 93% chance of not even needing hospital treatment...


The noun Pandemic is not mentioned in that post, does one not understand grammar.

Every disease is a Pandemic in the modern world as they all spread “across the country or roundvthe world”.

1600 people sick in a country of 5 million is no crisis worth destroying jobs and lives for.


Well it seems the MORE deadly and MORE contagious delta variant failed to deliver... just think about that, the infected person came on a flight where people would have taken masks off at times to eat and drink and all shared the same inflight tier facilities. THEN they sauntered all over a MAJOR metropolitan area and thefe was no outbreak.
Guess that’s why an ever nastier version lambda? Starts with L has just been “ discovered”....

Oh but we’ve locked down so quick, yes but not before the exposure events and not before all those exposed on weekends away returned to provincial centres.

One has to wonder if the new respiratory infection in young kids is a result of the sterility of lockdown life not letting there immune systems learn properly in early development months as the age band is very low.

[Viking01]

Also a poignant reminder of why the argument of 'No one needs....' is wrong.

Same with Kyle.
Same with Ken and Karen Chadbro.
Same with Ukraine.


So, what's the linkage with Ukraine ?